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Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive c ....Stochastic Methods for Dynamic Risk Management. In today's environment of intense competitive pressures, volatile economic conditions, rising bankruptcies, and increasing levels of consumer and commercial debt, an organization's ability to effectively monitor and manage its credit risk can mean the difference between success and survival. The improvement of dynamic risk management systems is also an essential part of the new regulatory Capital Adequacy Proposal Basel II in which risk-sensitive capital requirements for credit portfolios and internal models of credit risk are advocated. The goal of the project is to develop novel stochastic methods for managing of credit risk and to bring theoretical innovations developed within the project to practical implementations. Read moreRead less
Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with sta ....Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give Australian industry an internationally competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large diversified portfolios such as those of superannuation funds and banks.Read moreRead less
The Pricing and Hedging of Multi-Factor Multi-Commodity Based Swing Options. The partner organisation, an Australian based company, is a leading global player in providing risk management solutions to energy corporations world-wide. The advances of the project will help it to enhance Australia's role as a provider of practical implementation of the most recent academic advances in the area of risk management technology.
Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than obse ....Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than observed. This approach has the immense advantage of being able to reflect contemporary borrowing patterns in the model, rather than relying on historic trends.
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Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innov ....Multifractal models in finance via the crossing tree. High level mathematical modelling is an established part of the modern finance industry, in particular the Black-Scholes option pricing formula is now an indispensable financial tool.
To remain competitive the Australian financial sector needs to keep up with developments in mathematical finance, which is only possible if the Australian academic community remains active in the field.
The work on multifractal modelling proposed here is innovative both in its theoretical aspects and its applied methodology, and will ensure that Australian research remains at the cutting edge of this highly competitive and fast moving field.Read moreRead less
Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to ....The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to credit default risk by Australian financial institutions and the Australian financial regulator. This research has the potential to enhance the competitivemess of Australia's financial sector.Read moreRead less
Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the de ....Financial Risk Processes: Stochastic and Statistical Models and their Applications. On the one hand, the misuse of complex financial instruments has contributed to recent major disasters in the Australian financial and insurance industries; on the other hand, great benefits can be obtained by correct use of these kinds of instruments, to share risk between markets and segments of markets. The overall research effort in Australia in these areas is relatively small. This project will target the development of cutting edge technologies underlying the use of financial derivatives, not presently studied in this country or elsewhere, by bringing together a variety of top level international researchers in an integrated effort to lift the Australian understanding and application of this methodology.Read moreRead less
New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate train ....New Stochastic Processes with Applications in Finance. This project investigates the properties and the use of two new families of models with applications in Finance, and beyond. It will contribute to the development of fundamental research in mathematics and its applications. The project will produce more realistic financial models that will benefit researchers in this field. This will in turn have a flow on effect to benefit the wider community. The project will provide for postgraduate training and international scientific exchange. Overall, the project will strengthen Australia's standing at the forefront of fundamental and applied research.Read moreRead less
The pricing and risk management of reverse mortgages in the Australian market. This project will develop new methodologies for the pricing of reverse mortgages and will examine how sensitive prices are to demographic and financial assumptions in our models. This will increase transparency in the reverse mortgage market for retired Australians and ensure they get a fair deal. Increasing pricing transparency will also reduce risks to the issuing banks both by facilitating securitization and by all ....The pricing and risk management of reverse mortgages in the Australian market. This project will develop new methodologies for the pricing of reverse mortgages and will examine how sensitive prices are to demographic and financial assumptions in our models. This will increase transparency in the reverse mortgage market for retired Australians and ensure they get a fair deal. Increasing pricing transparency will also reduce risks to the issuing banks both by facilitating securitization and by allowing more accurate modelling of capital costs for mortgages that remain on their balance sheet.Read moreRead less