Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100819
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$281,600.00
Summary
Measuring the improbable: optimal Monte Carlo methods for rare event simulation of maxima of dependent random variables. Some events occurring with low frequency can have dramatic consequences: natural catastrophes, economic crises, system malfunctions. Estimating their probabilities is a very difficult problem. This project will develop new simulation methods capable of delivering the most precise and efficient estimators for the probabilities of such events.
Random network models with applications in biology. Complex biological systems consist of a large number of interacting agents or components, and so can be studied using mathematical random network models. We aim to gain deeper insights into the laws emerging as the random networks evolve in time. This can help us to deal with dangerous disease epidemics and better understand the human brain.
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Selection of mixed strength moment restrictions and optimal inference . This project aims to develop consistent model selection criteria even if the target model only provides a weak signal about the parameter of interest. This project expects to generate new knowledge on model selection using new and innovative techniques. Expected outcomes include the quantification of the maximum information on parameter from weak-signal models; new entropy-based model selection criteria; and a robust investi ....Selection of mixed strength moment restrictions and optimal inference . This project aims to develop consistent model selection criteria even if the target model only provides a weak signal about the parameter of interest. This project expects to generate new knowledge on model selection using new and innovative techniques. Expected outcomes include the quantification of the maximum information on parameter from weak-signal models; new entropy-based model selection criteria; and a robust investigation of the still debated hypothesis in environmental economics that with open and liberalized trade, developing countries would become pollution havens for dirty industries of advanced countries. Success in this undertaking will dramatically enlarge the pool of applied work involving economic models with weak signals.Read moreRead less
Bayesian copula modelling of multivariate dependence: getting to grips with data that is far from normal. Copula models are very popular tools that are changing the way analysts deal with information rich data in fields as diverse as marketing, finance and transport studies. This project aims to improve and extend these tools, so that more accurate and reliable models can be employed, resulting in improved evidence-based decision-making.
The origins of gender. This project intends to address how the evolutionary phenomena of intra-sexual competition and inter-sexual conflict interact with economic circumstances to shape gendered behaviour and attitudes. These phenomena are important in evolution, economics, psychology and sociology, with implications for the economy and for the welfare of women and men. The project predicts that gender-related culture arises, partially, out of mating market dynamics. The research crosses traditi ....The origins of gender. This project intends to address how the evolutionary phenomena of intra-sexual competition and inter-sexual conflict interact with economic circumstances to shape gendered behaviour and attitudes. These phenomena are important in evolution, economics, psychology and sociology, with implications for the economy and for the welfare of women and men. The project predicts that gender-related culture arises, partially, out of mating market dynamics. The research crosses traditional boundaries between biology and economics to investigate the forces giving rise to gendered behaviour and resulting patterns of marriages, violence, political preferences and occupational choices. The project may provide new insights into the links between gender and violence, within-family conflicts, and gender roles in the home and workplace.Read moreRead less
Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empiric ....Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empirical outcomes should inform and evaluate evidence-based policy interventions for crime prevention, and influence policy making about public transport and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Body size in the 21st century: integrating evolution, economics and culture. This project will study how evolution and biology interact with culture and economics to shape two important aspects of our world and our lives: the unfolding global obesity crisis and the complex, nuanced judgments people make about body shape. This research will inform the public health issues of obesity and body image problems.
Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimat ....Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimated and compared with conventional point identified estimates. Performance of alternative bound estimators will be examined and particular attention given to the issue of the weakness of the instruments and the size of the bounds. The new theoretical developments in this literature have significant implications for empirical economics.Read moreRead less
Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect th ....Fair pricing of superannuation guaranteed benefits with downturn risk. Australians have more than $2.7 trillion in superannuation assets, meaning that Australia is the fourth largest holder of pension fund assets worldwide. Hence the impact of market fluctuations on financial well-being of retirees can be detrimental, especially during market downturns associated with economic crises. The finance industry addresses this issue by complementing variable annuities with riders designed to protect the income stream of retirees. This project aims to develop a novel approach to fair pricing and optimal withdrawals and surrender policies for superannuation guaranteed benefit products through a comprehensive analysis of complex optimisation problems in stochastic models of financial markets with downturn risk.Read moreRead less