New Directions in Bayesian Statistics: formulation, computation and application to exemplar challenges. Bayesian statistics is a fundamental statistical and machine learning approach for density estimation, data analysis and inference. However, there remain open questions regarding the formulation of the model, the likelihood and priors, and efficient computation. This project proposes new approaches that address these issues, and applies them to two exemplar challenges: the impact of climate ch ....New Directions in Bayesian Statistics: formulation, computation and application to exemplar challenges. Bayesian statistics is a fundamental statistical and machine learning approach for density estimation, data analysis and inference. However, there remain open questions regarding the formulation of the model, the likelihood and priors, and efficient computation. This project proposes new approaches that address these issues, and applies them to two exemplar challenges: the impact of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef and better understanding neurological diseases related aging, in particular Parkinson's Disease. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100819
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$281,600.00
Summary
Measuring the improbable: optimal Monte Carlo methods for rare event simulation of maxima of dependent random variables. Some events occurring with low frequency can have dramatic consequences: natural catastrophes, economic crises, system malfunctions. Estimating their probabilities is a very difficult problem. This project will develop new simulation methods capable of delivering the most precise and efficient estimators for the probabilities of such events.
Random network models with applications in biology. Complex biological systems consist of a large number of interacting agents or components, and so can be studied using mathematical random network models. We aim to gain deeper insights into the laws emerging as the random networks evolve in time. This can help us to deal with dangerous disease epidemics and better understand the human brain.
Robust inferences for analysis of longitudinal data. This project will develop novel statistical tools. Outcomes of this project will enable more reliable data analysis and more cost effective designs in environmental and biological studies.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100741
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$382,274.00
Summary
Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, ....Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, wound healing and skin cancer treatments. Potential outcomes of the project include new algorithms to significantly economise computations and improved understanding of the mechanisms of experimental data generation. Improved models of wound healing, skin cancer growth and heart physiology supported by these algorithms could improve population health.Read moreRead less
Random Discrete Structures: Approximations and Applications. The behaviour of many real world systems can be modelled by random discrete structures evolving over time. For example, the sizes of populations of frogs in some close patches of forests can be modelled as interacting random processes. The aim of the project is to investigate large discrete random structures that arise from real world application in areas such as biology, complex networks and insurance. The proposed project is at the i ....Random Discrete Structures: Approximations and Applications. The behaviour of many real world systems can be modelled by random discrete structures evolving over time. For example, the sizes of populations of frogs in some close patches of forests can be modelled as interacting random processes. The aim of the project is to investigate large discrete random structures that arise from real world application in areas such as biology, complex networks and insurance. The proposed project is at the interface of mathematics and 'big data' applications and so the work of the project aims to provide theoretical and heuristic underpinnings useful in the algorithms and techniques of practitioners. Understanding the applications in the project requires new, broadly applicable methods and developing such is a complementary aim.Read moreRead less
Understanding the effects of individual variation on population dynamics. Recent empirical studies have shown that trait variation among individuals in a population can have a significant impact on population dynamics. Given the considerable resources devoted to managing populations in Australia, it is vital individual variation be understood. This project will use the tools of modern probability theory to investigate the effect of trait variation on population-level quantities, such as the prob ....Understanding the effects of individual variation on population dynamics. Recent empirical studies have shown that trait variation among individuals in a population can have a significant impact on population dynamics. Given the considerable resources devoted to managing populations in Australia, it is vital individual variation be understood. This project will use the tools of modern probability theory to investigate the effect of trait variation on population-level quantities, such as the probability of extinction and the long term equilibrium level. This work will lead to better strategies for managing invasive diseases and pests, thus helping to protect Australia's biodiversity. The methods developed will be applicable to areas beyond population dynamics.Read moreRead less
Advanced Mixture Models for the Analysis of Modern-Day Data. Extracting key information from huge data sets is critical to the scientific successes of the future. This project will develop novel mixture models that can be used directly to analyse complex and high-dimensional data sets that may consist of thousands of variables observed on only a limited number of entities. In order to handle the challenging problems arising in the latter situation. This project develops mixtures of factor models ....Advanced Mixture Models for the Analysis of Modern-Day Data. Extracting key information from huge data sets is critical to the scientific successes of the future. This project will develop novel mixture models that can be used directly to analyse complex and high-dimensional data sets that may consist of thousands of variables observed on only a limited number of entities. In order to handle the challenging problems arising in the latter situation. This project develops mixtures of factor models with options for skew distributions that can be used to effectively analyse such data. Key applications include the domains of bioinformatics, biostatistics, business, data mining, economics, finance, image analysis, marketing, and personalised medicine, among many others.Read moreRead less
Joint clustering and matching of multivariate samples across objects. The project will provide a novel and very effective approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on objects, say patients, that automatically matches the sample clusters across the objects. A key application is the matching of biologically relevant cell subtypes across patients for use in the study and the clinical diagnosis and prognosis of cancer.
Expanding the role of mixture models in statistical analyses of big data. This project aims to develop theoretical procedures to scale inference and learning algorithms to analyse big data sets. It will develop analytic tools and algorithms to analyse big data sets which classical methods of inference cannot analyse directly due to the data’s complexity or size. This will accelerate the progress of scientific discovery and innovation, leading, for example, to new fields of inquiry; to an increas ....Expanding the role of mixture models in statistical analyses of big data. This project aims to develop theoretical procedures to scale inference and learning algorithms to analyse big data sets. It will develop analytic tools and algorithms to analyse big data sets which classical methods of inference cannot analyse directly due to the data’s complexity or size. This will accelerate the progress of scientific discovery and innovation, leading, for example, to new fields of inquiry; to an increase in understanding from studies on human and social processes and interactions; and to the promotion of economic growth and improved health and quality of life. Such applications should lead to breakthrough discoveries and innovation in science, engineering, medicine, commerce, education and national security.Read moreRead less