Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
The multiplexed diagnosis of arbovirus infections using combinatorial probes. Viruses that cause serious diseases such as hemorrhagic fever or encephalitis must be quickly identified. Diagnostic tests based on DNA hybridisation are accurate and can be rapid but they are expensive. We will test a method for simplifying DNA tests and increasing their capabilities. DNA probes for detecting arboviruses will be designed at the ANU using new bioinformatic methods and their reliability will be model ....The multiplexed diagnosis of arbovirus infections using combinatorial probes. Viruses that cause serious diseases such as hemorrhagic fever or encephalitis must be quickly identified. Diagnostic tests based on DNA hybridisation are accurate and can be rapid but they are expensive. We will test a method for simplifying DNA tests and increasing their capabilities. DNA probes for detecting arboviruses will be designed at the ANU using new bioinformatic methods and their reliability will be modelled using all the available genetic information. Computer predictions will be experimentally tested in the PANBIO laboratory by using the probes to detect viral nucleic acids. The influence of virus genome complexity will be investigatedRead moreRead less
Three dimensional computational models of geological basin and hinterland evolution incorporating lithospheric mantle and surface processes. Petroleum exploration in deepwater areas offshore Australia is becoming increasingly important as more accessible, shallow water oil reserves near exhaustion. Geological simulation is an important tool for understanding deep water basins where geophysical imaging techniques are less effective. This project will develop 3D computational models relevant to un ....Three dimensional computational models of geological basin and hinterland evolution incorporating lithospheric mantle and surface processes. Petroleum exploration in deepwater areas offshore Australia is becoming increasingly important as more accessible, shallow water oil reserves near exhaustion. Geological simulation is an important tool for understanding deep water basins where geophysical imaging techniques are less effective. This project will develop 3D computational models relevant to understanding the development and evolution of geological basins and the sediments that fill them. The models will be integrated with available offshore data for potentially prospective Australian basins in the Northwest Shelf and the Southern Australian margin.Read moreRead less
Understanding molecular negative ion production for use in pathology. The project aims to increase the yield of molecular negative ion sources by improving our understanding of the formation of ion beams from plasma sources and expand our knowledge of molecular negative ion generation in plasma environments leading to brighter ion beams. For example, understanding cancer requires cellular level tools to map how cells are changing. These maps are made using ion beams which are scanned across cell ....Understanding molecular negative ion production for use in pathology. The project aims to increase the yield of molecular negative ion sources by improving our understanding of the formation of ion beams from plasma sources and expand our knowledge of molecular negative ion generation in plasma environments leading to brighter ion beams. For example, understanding cancer requires cellular level tools to map how cells are changing. These maps are made using ion beams which are scanned across cells to remove material that is analysed at the atomic and molecular level. Ion beams are produced from plasma sources, but much of their operation is not understood. Such improved ion beams are expected to enable inexpensive and fast cellular level pathology at even small hospitals to tackle cancer for society’s benefit.Read moreRead less
Using Mathematics to Maximize the Efficiency of Shared Infrastructure in Australia's Coal Export Supply Chain. Port Waratah Coal Services operates the world's largest coal export terminal, servicing about 14 coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley, NSW. It is responsible for around $15 billion in annual export income for Australia. The coal supply chain is a complex operation, hampered by bottlenecks in critical shared infrastructure. Such limitations are estimated to cost Australia about $2 ....Using Mathematics to Maximize the Efficiency of Shared Infrastructure in Australia's Coal Export Supply Chain. Port Waratah Coal Services operates the world's largest coal export terminal, servicing about 14 coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley, NSW. It is responsible for around $15 billion in annual export income for Australia. The coal supply chain is a complex operation, hampered by bottlenecks in critical shared infrastructure. Such limitations are estimated to cost Australia about $2 billion pa in lost sales. This project will support the design of new infrastructure and processes to ensure an efficient supply chain. The new science resulting will benefit other coal operations in Australia, and potentially other bulk goods supply chains.Read moreRead less
Thermo-mechanical interactive atlas of basin evolution. We propose to create a thermo-mechanical interactive atlas of basin evolution as a desktop geodynamic modelling resource for exploration geologists. The atlas will allow the user to iteratively run our 2D/3D basin modelling software ELLIPSIS to alter model parameters until they match observed basin geometries or thermal history. Model iteration will be based on interactive user evaluation of model outputs and genetic algorithms, which pr ....Thermo-mechanical interactive atlas of basin evolution. We propose to create a thermo-mechanical interactive atlas of basin evolution as a desktop geodynamic modelling resource for exploration geologists. The atlas will allow the user to iteratively run our 2D/3D basin modelling software ELLIPSIS to alter model parameters until they match observed basin geometries or thermal history. Model iteration will be based on interactive user evaluation of model outputs and genetic algorithms, which progressively modify the solution set by mimicking the evolutionary behavior of biological systems (selection, cross-over and mutation), until an acceptable result is achieved. The interactive atlas will be applied to Australian and international case studies.Read moreRead less
Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a ....Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a short time interval. We show how to both assess and correct error. In particular, we propose methods for attaching probabilities to the accuracy of predictions.Read moreRead less
Developing new methods to retrieve and analyse preserved genetic information. This project will position Australia at the leading edge of research into preserved DNA, and will use innovative molecular biology approaches to develop a range of new forensic, archaeological and medical applications. It will build Australian knowledge and scientific capacity by developing core expertise and training personnel in areas important for biosecurity, customs and quarantine, forensics/counter-terrorism, and ....Developing new methods to retrieve and analyse preserved genetic information. This project will position Australia at the leading edge of research into preserved DNA, and will use innovative molecular biology approaches to develop a range of new forensic, archaeological and medical applications. It will build Australian knowledge and scientific capacity by developing core expertise and training personnel in areas important for biosecurity, customs and quarantine, forensics/counter-terrorism, and studies of climate change. It will also create and foster research innovation in molecular biology with spin-offs for evolution, archaeology, medical and conservation biology research, and will also encourage involvement with the rapidly expanding field of genomics and bioinformatics.Read moreRead less