Forecasting when model stability is uncertain. Forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables play a crucial role in forward planning undertaken by government and financial institutions, but the predictability of these series is often context and time specific, making standard forecasting techniques unreliable. This project aims to develop new modelling and forecasting techniques that can adapt to structural changes in the model soon after they occur. It aims to derive relevant econometric t ....Forecasting when model stability is uncertain. Forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables play a crucial role in forward planning undertaken by government and financial institutions, but the predictability of these series is often context and time specific, making standard forecasting techniques unreliable. This project aims to develop new modelling and forecasting techniques that can adapt to structural changes in the model soon after they occur. It aims to derive relevant econometric theory, use simulations to study the properties of the proposed techniques, as well as apply these new techniques to observed data.Read moreRead less
Understanding The Regulation Of Kidney Morphogenesis In Order To Improve Renal Development
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$683,040.00
Summary
Chronic kidney disease is a growing burden to the health system. The long term health of your kidneys is influenced by the number of functional units, nephrons, present in each kidney, a feature that is determined before birth. If we could influence this number, we may be able to reduce the risk of kidney disease in later life for at risk populations, including the Aboriginal community. This study will investigate the stem cells that form the nephrons, how the process occurs and how it can be in ....Chronic kidney disease is a growing burden to the health system. The long term health of your kidneys is influenced by the number of functional units, nephrons, present in each kidney, a feature that is determined before birth. If we could influence this number, we may be able to reduce the risk of kidney disease in later life for at risk populations, including the Aboriginal community. This study will investigate the stem cells that form the nephrons, how the process occurs and how it can be influenced.Read moreRead less
Dissipation and relaxation in statistical mechanics. This project studies the mathematical conditions for relaxation either to equilibrium or to steady states, which is important in predicting behaviour in diverse fields including climate modelling, materials science, nanotechnology and biology. Early career researchers will be involved in the project, gaining valuable skills in theory and simulation.
Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstra ....Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstrap) methods, which will provide a much-needed improvement over the existing (asymptotic) methods for making inference about the long-run. Our research will lead to more reliable models for long-term planning in business, industry and government.Read moreRead less
Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The ....Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The outcome of this project will be immediately useful for macroeconomic policy makers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasury, and for industry bodies such as Tourism Australia. Read moreRead less
Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.