Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The o ....New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The outcome will be a class of superior models and operational risk management tools that will ensure the value and risks of these transactions are properly understood and accurately quantified. These models will enhance both the knowledge base of the industry and academic scholarship.
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Improving the wool product. Using mathematical modelling to improve the efficiency of wool scouring. Our aim is to improve the quality of scoured wool by improving the efficiency of wool scouring. Wool scouring is the process of washing greasy wool once it has been removed from the sheep's back. After being rinsed to remove sweat and salt the wool is passed through a scour bowl consisting of settling tanks from which dirty water is periodically expelled. Mathematical modelling will optimise us ....Improving the wool product. Using mathematical modelling to improve the efficiency of wool scouring. Our aim is to improve the quality of scoured wool by improving the efficiency of wool scouring. Wool scouring is the process of washing greasy wool once it has been removed from the sheep's back. After being rinsed to remove sweat and salt the wool is passed through a scour bowl consisting of settling tanks from which dirty water is periodically expelled. Mathematical modelling will optimise use of the scour bowl, reduce consumption of water, increase the recovery of wool grease and improve the quality and cleanliness of the wool.Read moreRead less
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate ....ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate this FTA and its implications to Australia's trade to a major ASEAN country, namely Vietnam, where 2002 trade reached $2.8b and Australia's global companies (eg. ANZ, Telstra, RMIT) currently have large operation.Read moreRead less
Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourag ....Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. Towards a superannuation system fit for the future. This project aims to develop a stochastic superannuation model and propose alternative post retirement solutions, using data-led understanding of savings habits. Funding for the increasing cost of the growing older population will, if not modelled, forecast and managed adequately, swamp all other welfare and state funded costs. To manage older age costs adequately, governments need to encourage people to save and provide ways people can save—but need to better understand how people save money for their old age. This research is expected to enable the “superannuation change“ necessary for the superannuation system to remain sustainable and fund retirees to live well.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence ....Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence to guide government and providers about effective, equitable and safe approaches to funding ART. This research will address that need, thereby fostering a healthy start to life and preventative healthcare; supporting the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, for ART children, their families and the community.Read moreRead less
Developing a responsive regulatory system for Australia's small corporations. Small corporations employ approximately 50% of Australia's 10.5 million employed persons (ABS: Nov 2007). Promoting and maintaining small corporations is vital to the health of the Australian economy and the well being of society. This research will strengthen Australia's social and economic fabric by identifying, in consultation with regulators, industry leaders, government, the ideal regulatory environment for Aust ....Developing a responsive regulatory system for Australia's small corporations. Small corporations employ approximately 50% of Australia's 10.5 million employed persons (ABS: Nov 2007). Promoting and maintaining small corporations is vital to the health of the Australian economy and the well being of society. This research will strengthen Australia's social and economic fabric by identifying, in consultation with regulators, industry leaders, government, the ideal regulatory environment for Australia's small corporations. A responsive regulatory framework will enable small corporations to conduct business more efficiently and profitably allowing for and creating structures and processes for encouraging and managing innovation creativity in this vital sector.Read moreRead less