Linking wave–sea ice feedbacks to rapid ice retreat. Antarctic sea ice extent has been in sharp decline since 2016, which is stressing the fragile Southern Ocean and Antarctic environments so vital to the global climate. This project aims to investigate a crucial candidate mechanism of sea ice loss by predicting rapid ice retreat in response to large Southern Ocean waves. New theory and modelling capabilities that account for wave–ice feedbacks will underpin the predictions, leveraging on recent ....Linking wave–sea ice feedbacks to rapid ice retreat. Antarctic sea ice extent has been in sharp decline since 2016, which is stressing the fragile Southern Ocean and Antarctic environments so vital to the global climate. This project aims to investigate a crucial candidate mechanism of sea ice loss by predicting rapid ice retreat in response to large Southern Ocean waves. New theory and modelling capabilities that account for wave–ice feedbacks will underpin the predictions, leveraging on recent research breakthroughs, including novel datasets derived from satellite and field observations. The outcomes are expected to quantify sea ice retreat due to ocean waves for the first time, with potentially major implications for coupled wave–sea ice modelling in climate studies.Read moreRead less
Advanced algorithms for statistical mechanical models. Polymer science, percolation theory and models of magnetism are at the forefront of lattice statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory. Numerical techniques to determine the behaviour of model systems in these areas are predominantly Monte Carlo methods, series generation and analysis, or based on partition function zeroes. New algorithms have been developed for all three methods that are vastly more efficient than their predecessors. ....Advanced algorithms for statistical mechanical models. Polymer science, percolation theory and models of magnetism are at the forefront of lattice statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory. Numerical techniques to determine the behaviour of model systems in these areas are predominantly Monte Carlo methods, series generation and analysis, or based on partition function zeroes. New algorithms have been developed for all three methods that are vastly more efficient than their predecessors. Coupled with the availability of dramatically increased computer power, this project takes advantage of a unique position to make dramatic advances in the afore-mentioned research areas. Furthermore, the methods have wider applicability than those mentioned.Read moreRead less
Construction of utility functions from observations of consumer behaviour with application to resource modelling and water management strategies. The optimisation techniques developed will be on the forefront of applied mathematical sciences and will increase the prestige of the Australian mathematical community. The expected results will also be of value because they can be used to improve the CGE modelling technique. The implementation of the CGE model of one of Victoria's agricultural regions ....Construction of utility functions from observations of consumer behaviour with application to resource modelling and water management strategies. The optimisation techniques developed will be on the forefront of applied mathematical sciences and will increase the prestige of the Australian mathematical community. The expected results will also be of value because they can be used to improve the CGE modelling technique. The implementation of the CGE model of one of Victoria's agricultural regions will be used to improve the accuracy of regional economic models and will contribute to efficient regional resource management. This has the potential to positively affect the economic growth and employment in the region. The expected outcomes of the project are especially important taking into account the need for predicting the socio-economic consequences of the 1994 COAG water reforms. Read moreRead less
Advanced matrix-analytic methods with applications. Over the last twenty-five years, matrix-analytic methods have proved to be very successful in formulating and analysing certain classes of stochastic models. Motivated by applications, this project will investigate more advanced matrix-analytic methods than have hitherto been studied.
Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the mat ....Classification methods for providing personalised and class decisions. This project provides a novel approach to the clustering of multivariate samples on entities in a class that automatically matches the sample clusters across the entities, allowing for inter-sample variation between the samples in a class. The project aims to develop a widely applicable, mixture-model-based framework for the simultaneous clustering of multivariate samples with inter-sample variation in a class and for the matching of the clusters across the entities in the class. The project will use a statistical approach to automatically match the clusters, since the overall mixture model provides a template for the class. It will provide a basis for discriminating between different classes in addition to the identification of atypical data points within a sample and of anomalous samples within a class. Key applications include biological image analysis and the analysis of data in flow cytometry which is one of the fundamental research tools for the life scientist.Read moreRead less
Population ageing, labour mobility and sustainability of China's economic growth - a dynamic general equilibrium analysis. China is Australia's second largest trading partner. This project will enable Australian policymakers and business partners to gain better understanding of China's macroeconomic performance between 2008 and 2030. Secondly, China is the second largest source of immigrants to Australia. Given that Australia's population is ageing and labour shortages are expected, Australia ma ....Population ageing, labour mobility and sustainability of China's economic growth - a dynamic general equilibrium analysis. China is Australia's second largest trading partner. This project will enable Australian policymakers and business partners to gain better understanding of China's macroeconomic performance between 2008 and 2030. Secondly, China is the second largest source of immigrants to Australia. Given that Australia's population is ageing and labour shortages are expected, Australia may benefit increasingly from the flow of Chinese immigrants. The project will provide Australian policymakers with detailed labour supply forecasts in China disaggregated by age, sex, sector and region that will enable them to develop targeted immigration policies and effectively harness the flow of Chinese emigrants to Australia.Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less
Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowle ....Identification Power and Instrument Strength in Discrete Outcome Models. This project aims to develop new econometric and statistical techniques to quantify causal effects in treatment models with discrete outcomes. Expected outcomes include a much-needed weak instrument test, a measure for identification strength in partial identification setting, and an instrument-covariate selection procedure for high dimensional discrete models based identification power. The benefits include advanced knowledge in econometrics and statistics, and enhanced tools for program evaluation and policy assessment in empirical causal analysis using observational data. The project falls into the category of smarter information use and is relevant to any national priority areas where policy interventions require assessment.Read moreRead less
Empowering next-generation sea-ice models with wave–ice mathematics. Sea ice is a crucial part of the Australian and global climate systems, and the most sensitive indicator of the alarming climate changes in motion. This project aims to deliver a vital component in next-generation sea-ice models, by modelling ocean waves in the ice-covered ocean, and implementing it in the leading large-scale sea-ice model. The waves-in-ice model will be accurate for the range of possible wave–ice conditions, u ....Empowering next-generation sea-ice models with wave–ice mathematics. Sea ice is a crucial part of the Australian and global climate systems, and the most sensitive indicator of the alarming climate changes in motion. This project aims to deliver a vital component in next-generation sea-ice models, by modelling ocean waves in the ice-covered ocean, and implementing it in the leading large-scale sea-ice model. The waves-in-ice model will be accurate for the range of possible wave–ice conditions, using understanding derived from state-of-the-art experimental measurements. Powerful mathematical approximation methods will be developed to generate model efficiency. The outcomes will create a new standard in sea-ice modelling, with significant benefits for sea-ice forecasting and climate studies.Read moreRead less
Liquidity in financial markets. This project aims to develop a theory which models the effect of liquidity on option prices under different market conditions. Economic or financial crises are inevitable and affect economics. During or after a major financial crisis, market liquidity usually becomes risky and needs to be studied. Through both empirical and theoretical explorations, this project will quantify and measure liquidity risk and its effect on the options markets. It will develop a frame ....Liquidity in financial markets. This project aims to develop a theory which models the effect of liquidity on option prices under different market conditions. Economic or financial crises are inevitable and affect economics. During or after a major financial crisis, market liquidity usually becomes risky and needs to be studied. Through both empirical and theoretical explorations, this project will quantify and measure liquidity risk and its effect on the options markets. It will develop a framework to help market regulators manage illiquidity, enhance the efficiency of option trading in illiquid markets and help in the detection of market manipulation.Read moreRead less