Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including impreci ....Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including imprecise estimates of chance, optimistic (or pessimistic) bias, and relative confidence. This will enable more rigorous analysis of topics like irrational exuberance (panic), consumer stampedes, and (in)tolerance of risk, thereby improving the measurement of benefits and costs of related actions or policies.Read moreRead less
Increasing Returns and Economic Efficiency. The project attempts to increase the international profile of Australian research by extending the analysis of the challenging issues of economic efficiency in the presence of increasing returns. The proposed analysis takes account of both allocational efficiency and organizational efficiency. It will integrate the Dixit-Stiglitz model of the traditional analysis with the Yang-Ng-Shi model of the new framework to provide a more realistic analysis that ....Increasing Returns and Economic Efficiency. The project attempts to increase the international profile of Australian research by extending the analysis of the challenging issues of economic efficiency in the presence of increasing returns. The proposed analysis takes account of both allocational efficiency and organizational efficiency. It will integrate the Dixit-Stiglitz model of the traditional analysis with the Yang-Ng-Shi model of the new framework to provide a more realistic analysis that allows for increasing returns in both home and firm/market production. This conceptual extension constitutes an advance that is of analytical value and will also be relevant for the formulation of public economic policy in the Australian setting and also more generally. Read moreRead less
A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these model ....A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these models means
that even computer-based techniques will rely for the foreseeable
future on efficient program design to solve them. The project will
construct a comprehensive set of solution techniques and software for
this class of macroeconomic models, including detailed mathematical
analysis on accuracy of model output.Read moreRead less
Understanding the Effects of News Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations. There are significant potential benefits for Australia. First, it could lead to more effective policymaking, with an understanding of how policy in one branch of the government can affect other sectors that have not been considered before. For example, changes in fiscal policy can affect not just growth, but also unemployment, inflation, and the income distribution. Second, this project will make a contribution to the resear ....Understanding the Effects of News Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations. There are significant potential benefits for Australia. First, it could lead to more effective policymaking, with an understanding of how policy in one branch of the government can affect other sectors that have not been considered before. For example, changes in fiscal policy can affect not just growth, but also unemployment, inflation, and the income distribution. Second, this project will make a contribution to the research training of new macroeconomists in Australia: we will train three PhD students in the very latest methods. We also will organize a conference and bring the very top economists in the world to work with researchers here, and to consider issues surrounding the Australian economy. Read moreRead less
Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhea ....Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhealthy agnosticism regarding many of these relationships. This research will bring more appropriate statistical techniques to bear upon the problem, and if successful will restore confidence in decision-making processes and the relevance and applicability of macroeconomic models. Read moreRead less
Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were ....Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were frozen, possesses certain ergodicity properties expressed in the existence of its limit occupational measures set. Conditions for the existence of such a set will be studied and its structure will be described.Read moreRead less
Duality, singular perturbations and numerical analysis in infinite dimensional linear programming problems related to problems of control of nonlinear dynamical systems. Problems of control of nonlinear dynamical systems attract continued interest of eminent researchers motivated by important applications and by the fact that analytical and/or numerical analysis of a general nonlinear control problem presents a challenging task. The outcomes of the project will be both fundamental theoretical re ....Duality, singular perturbations and numerical analysis in infinite dimensional linear programming problems related to problems of control of nonlinear dynamical systems. Problems of control of nonlinear dynamical systems attract continued interest of eminent researchers motivated by important applications and by the fact that analytical and/or numerical analysis of a general nonlinear control problem presents a challenging task. The outcomes of the project will be both fundamental theoretical results and readily applicable (linear programming based) algorithms that will equip researchers and engineers with new tools for analysis and numerical solution of nonlinear control problems (including problems that have been intractable so far). The project will further enhance Australia's international reputation in Control Theory and its Applications.
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Worker Flows and Labour Market Policy in Australia. We propose to undertake a detailed analysis of flows in the Australian labour market. Monthly data on flows of males and females between four labour market states (employed full-time, employed part-time, unemployed and not in the labour force) over the period 1980 to 2003 will be analysed. The project will extend the theory of flows and it will use up-to-date time series econometric analysis coupled with theories of labour market behaviour to b ....Worker Flows and Labour Market Policy in Australia. We propose to undertake a detailed analysis of flows in the Australian labour market. Monthly data on flows of males and females between four labour market states (employed full-time, employed part-time, unemployed and not in the labour force) over the period 1980 to 2003 will be analysed. The project will extend the theory of flows and it will use up-to-date time series econometric analysis coupled with theories of labour market behaviour to build models of the flows. The aim is to better understand trend, cyclical, seasonal and policy influences on labour market flows and to reveal any structural changes which have occurred. This will provide more detail on the underlying causes of unemployment in Australia and especially the manner and the speed of response of males and females to changes in labour market policy and in economic conditions.Read moreRead less
Modelling, forecasting, and control for econometrics based on generalized dynamic factor models: a system theoretic approach. The project will provide a tool that will assist organizations wishing to understand the dynamics of a national economy to model it, and to forecast future econometric time series values. Such ability will provide another tool to econometric managers, including the Reserve Bank , Treasury and fund managers, that should benefit the Australian nation.
Occupational Measures Approach to Long Run Average and Singularly Perturbed Optimal Control Problems. Problems of optimal control of long-run average and singularly perturbed systems arise in many applications. The project will lead to the development of new linear programming based techniques for analyzing these problems (including problems intractable so far) and finding their numerical solutions. The new techniques will have a potential to be further developed into software that can benefit A ....Occupational Measures Approach to Long Run Average and Singularly Perturbed Optimal Control Problems. Problems of optimal control of long-run average and singularly perturbed systems arise in many applications. The project will lead to the development of new linear programming based techniques for analyzing these problems (including problems intractable so far) and finding their numerical solutions. The new techniques will have a potential to be further developed into software that can benefit Australian industries and technologies. The proposed topic is in the focus of interest of many eminent researchers around the world and the dissemination of our results will further improve Australia's standing in the international research community. Read moreRead less