Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investmen ....Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.Read moreRead less
Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset ....Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset classes, and Value at Risk (VaR) thresholds. The innovative methods and models will permit both financial institutions and regulatory authorities to model VaR thresholds more accurately, and enable investment managers to regulate and benchmark their portfolios more effectively against international best practice.
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Managing Risk with Insurance and Superannuation as Individuals Age. Financial stability lies at the heart of any market economy. The financial risks associated with uncertainty about longevity change comprise one of the most pressing challenges facing financial systems, nationally and globally. While insurance companies and superannuation funds hold significant reserves against future risks, the ageing of the population increases the number of people potentially exposed to loss in the event that ....Managing Risk with Insurance and Superannuation as Individuals Age. Financial stability lies at the heart of any market economy. The financial risks associated with uncertainty about longevity change comprise one of the most pressing challenges facing financial systems, nationally and globally. While insurance companies and superannuation funds hold significant reserves against future risks, the ageing of the population increases the number of people potentially exposed to loss in the event that insurers and pension funds cannot deliver on their obligations. With an increasing range of financial service products and markets developing to meet the needs of the aged, research into the issues of longevity risk and the financial impact of uncertainty in mortality and morbidity trends is vital.Read moreRead less
Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to ....Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to estimate the parameters of stochastic-volatility models, thus contributing to knowledge in a prominent area of complex systems, namely financial risk. The execution of this collaborative project will deliver quality research training in the topical area of mathematical finance and produce high-calibre postgraduates.
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A Synthesis of Agency and Managerial Power Theories and Its Applications to Corporate Governance, Management Compensation, and Firm Performance. The existing models of corporate governance in economics and finance based on agency theory do not successfully portray all modern corporations. Thus the importance of a new and rigorous way to study corporate governance can be hardly exaggerated. This project will provide a synthesized theory of corporate governance and is expected to produce highest- ....A Synthesis of Agency and Managerial Power Theories and Its Applications to Corporate Governance, Management Compensation, and Firm Performance. The existing models of corporate governance in economics and finance based on agency theory do not successfully portray all modern corporations. Thus the importance of a new and rigorous way to study corporate governance can be hardly exaggerated. This project will provide a synthesized theory of corporate governance and is expected to produce highest-quality research publishable in top-tier journals. This will, among others, enhance Australia's standing as a knowledge nation. This project is also expected to contribute to the discussions on how to improve corporate governance and regulation of management compensation both in Australia and abroad. Read moreRead less
New Directions in Information Economics and Environmental Policy. Recent developments in economic theory, experimental economics, information systems and biophysical modelling have made possible a new generation of policy instruments that can be applied in environmental economics. A recent pilot study of biodiversity preservation auctions in Victoria has demonstrated the practicality in principle of these techniques. We will build on this pilot study to develop practical policy instruments based ....New Directions in Information Economics and Environmental Policy. Recent developments in economic theory, experimental economics, information systems and biophysical modelling have made possible a new generation of policy instruments that can be applied in environmental economics. A recent pilot study of biodiversity preservation auctions in Victoria has demonstrated the practicality in principle of these techniques. We will build on this pilot study to develop practical policy instruments based on these principles.Read moreRead less
Stochastic Index Numbers and Their Application in Accounting, Economics and Finance. Index numbers of prices, such as the Consumer Price Index and the All Ordinaries Index, are among the most important economic statistics for the whole economy. But despite their importance, currently constructed price indexes do not use all the information available in the underlying price data, namely the dispersion among the individual prices. This project will develop and apply a methodology for a new approa ....Stochastic Index Numbers and Their Application in Accounting, Economics and Finance. Index numbers of prices, such as the Consumer Price Index and the All Ordinaries Index, are among the most important economic statistics for the whole economy. But despite their importance, currently constructed price indexes do not use all the information available in the underlying price data, namely the dispersion among the individual prices. This project will develop and apply a methodology for a new approach to index numbers that incorporates this information and leads to tractable ways of estimating the whole distribution of the index value, rather than just one number. The practical usefulness of this mthodology will be demonstrated with applications in accounting (sustainable earnings), economics (real exchange rates) and finance (share prices).Read moreRead less
Retirement asset decumulation: Adequacy, institutions and products. This proposal seeks to evaluate the present and future adequacy of retirement provision, and offers alternative, practical solutions to the problem of how to maximise the value of a retiree's accumulated assets and facilitate a financially secure retirement. First, a re-evaluation of the replacement rate as a measure of retirement provision adequacy will be undertaken. Second, the efficacy of new financial products and instituti ....Retirement asset decumulation: Adequacy, institutions and products. This proposal seeks to evaluate the present and future adequacy of retirement provision, and offers alternative, practical solutions to the problem of how to maximise the value of a retiree's accumulated assets and facilitate a financially secure retirement. First, a re-evaluation of the replacement rate as a measure of retirement provision adequacy will be undertaken. Second, the efficacy of new financial products and institutions designed to enhance the value of a retirement accumulation for retirement consumption will be analysed. Global trends towards population aging and increasing reliance on self-provision for retirement lends both urgency and significance to the proposed research.Read moreRead less
The Role of Directors in CorporateTakeovers. This research deals with one of the causes and consequences of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for boards of directors of companies involved in M&As. The Federal Government's Corporate Law and Economic Reform Program (CLERP), Paper No:3 states that corporate governance practices by Australian companies should be continuously monitored by the Australian Stock Exchange and relevant industries and professional bodies. Our research on the extent to which ....The Role of Directors in CorporateTakeovers. This research deals with one of the causes and consequences of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for boards of directors of companies involved in M&As. The Federal Government's Corporate Law and Economic Reform Program (CLERP), Paper No:3 states that corporate governance practices by Australian companies should be continuously monitored by the Australian Stock Exchange and relevant industries and professional bodies. Our research on the extent to which directors get penalised and/or rewarded for acquisition decisions depending on the outcomes of the M&A, contribute towards this monitoring.Read moreRead less
Information and market price manipulation in trade. As we can see from the financial crisis, speculative trading in financial markets can have real world effects. Inside traders can exploit their information for more profits. At this stage, we do not fully understand the role of diverse information in the financial system and we need better ways to model price manipulation and information in a dynamic setting. This proposal seeks to supply a reference framework for analyzing price manipulatio ....Information and market price manipulation in trade. As we can see from the financial crisis, speculative trading in financial markets can have real world effects. Inside traders can exploit their information for more profits. At this stage, we do not fully understand the role of diverse information in the financial system and we need better ways to model price manipulation and information in a dynamic setting. This proposal seeks to supply a reference framework for analyzing price manipulation. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the informed trader's dynamic strategy. By strengthening this research area, this project will give new momentum to Australian economic theory.Read moreRead less