Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, ....Risk and Australian public policy. This project will develop fundamentally new approaches to the theory of risk and uncertainty and their role in the design and management of complex projects and policy initiatives. The results will be applied to the central economic policy choices facing Australia; those connected with globalisation and microeconomic reform. This project will show how the latest advances in economic theory can help to illuminate the major issues in the Australian public debate, from the role of government and the market to the assessment of standards of living. The project will also help to bridge the gap between economics and other social sciences.Read moreRead less
Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including impreci ....Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts. When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including imprecise estimates of chance, optimistic (or pessimistic) bias, and relative confidence. This will enable more rigorous analysis of topics like irrational exuberance (panic), consumer stampedes, and (in)tolerance of risk, thereby improving the measurement of benefits and costs of related actions or policies.Read moreRead less
A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these model ....A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these models means
that even computer-based techniques will rely for the foreseeable
future on efficient program design to solve them. The project will
construct a comprehensive set of solution techniques and software for
this class of macroeconomic models, including detailed mathematical
analysis on accuracy of model output.Read moreRead less
Using Heart Rate Variability measurements to identify the effects of stress on decision making. Rationality and the willingness to cooperate is an important aspect of human decision making. Research shows that certain decisions not only cause stress but are also affected by it. Using modern mobile heart rate monitors, we are able to measure causes and consequences of stress in a controlled and natural environment. This research will help to provide better workplace environments by helping to des ....Using Heart Rate Variability measurements to identify the effects of stress on decision making. Rationality and the willingness to cooperate is an important aspect of human decision making. Research shows that certain decisions not only cause stress but are also affected by it. Using modern mobile heart rate monitors, we are able to measure causes and consequences of stress in a controlled and natural environment. This research will help to provide better workplace environments by helping to design better organisations, decreasing the probability of workplace accidents, and advising employees how to better use their talents. This research also helps put Australia on the forefront of modern economic research that aims to open the ultimate "black box" of human decision making.Read moreRead less
Balancing the risk of harm with productivity in the mercurial firm: economic theory and applications to Australian policy. Australia has had at least one significant chemical spill per month for the last 30 years. While the Longford disaster fades from the news, James Hardy's asbestos problem fills its place. This project will develop a general conceptual framework in which to analyse the economics of risky firms. The framework will be used to evaluate Australian, International, and alternative ....Balancing the risk of harm with productivity in the mercurial firm: economic theory and applications to Australian policy. Australia has had at least one significant chemical spill per month for the last 30 years. While the Longford disaster fades from the news, James Hardy's asbestos problem fills its place. This project will develop a general conceptual framework in which to analyse the economics of risky firms. The framework will be used to evaluate Australian, International, and alternative policies. The end benefit to Australia will be an improvement in policy toward firms that cause accidents.Read moreRead less