Exposure dating with manganese-53, neon-21 and beryllium-10: a new toolkit for studying long-term landscape evolution. Australia today is the driest inhabited continent but this was not always the case. Tens of millions of years ago the climate of Australia was considerably wetter. Then, several million years ago, aridity in Australia developed producing most of the desert features of the red Centre that we see today. The age of our deserts and other arid features are not, however, well known. T ....Exposure dating with manganese-53, neon-21 and beryllium-10: a new toolkit for studying long-term landscape evolution. Australia today is the driest inhabited continent but this was not always the case. Tens of millions of years ago the climate of Australia was considerably wetter. Then, several million years ago, aridity in Australia developed producing most of the desert features of the red Centre that we see today. The age of our deserts and other arid features are not, however, well known. This project will determine the age of desertification in Australia, thereby enhancing our understanding of such processes and the response of our landscape to changing climate.
Read moreRead less
Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainf ....Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainfall models and stochastic dynamic programming to find practical water management policies that minimise the risk to water supply. We will develop an interactive simulation and management tool using a modern computer graphics package.Read moreRead less
A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discret ....A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discrete state vector will be the content of each storage unit and the daily transition will be driven by a new stochastic rainfall model (SRM). The objective will be to find a practical management policy that minimises Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).Read moreRead less
A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation tech ....A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will quantify the risks associated with current and future climate change, and the combined risks that come from multiple sources, such as from coastal tides and storm runoff. This research will provide a new spatial framework for calculating risk as well as tools to evaluate flood risk.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing the historical frequency and intensity of Australian droughts: A multi-species dendrochronological approach. Drought directly and indirectly impacts every Australian. Severe droughts devastate rural communities, lead to increased water restrictions and bushfire activity, slows the national economy and threatens diverse ecosystems. Our research will improve understanding of where, when, and how intensely droughts have occurred across eastern Australia in the past. The results will ....Reconstructing the historical frequency and intensity of Australian droughts: A multi-species dendrochronological approach. Drought directly and indirectly impacts every Australian. Severe droughts devastate rural communities, lead to increased water restrictions and bushfire activity, slows the national economy and threatens diverse ecosystems. Our research will improve understanding of where, when, and how intensely droughts have occurred across eastern Australia in the past. The results will provide unique insights into the processes that generate Australian droughts and how future droughts might be anticipated. The results will provide farmers, hydrologists, and policy-makers with better data on long-term variability in water supplies to improve local, regional, and national water planning initiatives and infrastructure development.Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
Read moreRead less
Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropic ....Unravelling Western Australia's Stormy Past - A Precisely-Dated Sediment Record of Cyclones over the past 7000 years. Australia has a vast coastline, much of which is vulnerable to cyclone impact. Clearly, historical human experience does not comprehend what the climate system is capable of in terms of epic storms. Our effort to understand the storm risks of the past is complicated by the limited length of the instrumental record which reaches back only 150 years of European settlement in tropical areas of Australia. This project will reconstruct the history of storms and cyclones using sedimentary signatures in Western Australia over the past 7000 years to assess storm and cyclone risks under changing future climates in a regional context.Read moreRead less
A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and ....A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and when catchments might switch to new states when hit by a disturbance; and c) identify how best to build the buffering capacity to reduce the chance of a switch occurring. The project will make Australia's groundwater and streamflow resources more secure and make Australian researchers and water resource managers world leaders in the emerging science of catchment resilience.Read moreRead less
Monsoon extremes, environmental shifts, and catastrophic volcanic eruptions: quantifying impacts on the early human history of southern Australasia. The coincidence of a long, diverse Australasian human history with Earth's greatest climate systems presents the Australian and Indonesian communities with unrivalled opportunities for scientific discovery. Our study will improve understanding of global climate change, environmental shifts, volcanic catastrophes, and their role in early human disper ....Monsoon extremes, environmental shifts, and catastrophic volcanic eruptions: quantifying impacts on the early human history of southern Australasia. The coincidence of a long, diverse Australasian human history with Earth's greatest climate systems presents the Australian and Indonesian communities with unrivalled opportunities for scientific discovery. Our study will improve understanding of global climate change, environmental shifts, volcanic catastrophes, and their role in early human dispersal, and extinction, in Australasia. The significance of the results will extend to the modern world, where human behaviour modifies, and is modified by, climate and environment. Integration of research strengths in Australia and Indonesia will contribute to an improved bilateral relationship in science, education, and training, and engage the public in the excitement of scientific discovery.Read moreRead less