New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Development of an 'ageing household' model for assessing medium to long-term vaccine impact in populations. As birth rates in developed and newly industrialising countries fall, so too do the number of households containing children, with implications for the spread of infections in families. We aim to study the influence of this phenomenon on the risk of common childhood infections, and the length of time that vaccines given in infancy will protect.
Public health approach to child abuse and neglect: antecedents, outcomes and international comparisons of trends. Child maltreatment is a significant public health issue. Findings will identify characteristics of at-risk children, families and communities; mental health and juvenile justice outcomes. Findings will be used to develop policy recommendations for intervention and prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability and improve monitoring of maltreatment.