Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in ....Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?Read moreRead less
Getting back on track after the unexpected happens: decision making in predictable and unpredictable environments. This project intends to examine how the brain decides where to look next with our eyes, a decision made approximately three times every second. Understanding how the normal brain makes decisions will in turn help us to understand what happens when things go wrong in diseases like dementia and Parkinson's disease.
Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
Information seeking, cognition, and individual differences. The public now has access to vast amounts of scientific knowledge and information on the internet and in other new media. Paradoxically, this increasing availability of knowledge has been accompanied by the increasing traction of pseudoscientific misinformation. This project explores the reasons underlying those trends and seeks solutions.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140101181
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$384,183.00
Summary
How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Inn ....How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Innovatively, this model would remove the need for an explicit conflict monitoring mechanism. This project is significant because it progresses our understanding of how humans deal with conflict. The expected outcome is a comprehensive, quantitative account of sequential effects in human decision making.Read moreRead less
How strong inference has failed psychology, and an updated approach. There are so many quantitative theories of cognition that it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees. This project will contend that this is caused by suboptimal model selection. Comprehensive data sets and modern statistical techniques will be used to evaluate competing accounts in five paradigms, thinning the trees to reveal the forest.
The value of time during decisions. This project aims to investigate how people value time during decision making. Using an innovative combination of carefully designed experiments and state-of-the-art mathematical cognitive models, this project expects to generate new knowledge regarding how efficiently people allocate time when making decisions, the factors that allow people to perform optimally and those that lead to suboptimal performance. The anticipated outcome of the project is a new fram ....The value of time during decisions. This project aims to investigate how people value time during decision making. Using an innovative combination of carefully designed experiments and state-of-the-art mathematical cognitive models, this project expects to generate new knowledge regarding how efficiently people allocate time when making decisions, the factors that allow people to perform optimally and those that lead to suboptimal performance. The anticipated outcome of the project is a new framework for understanding the optimality of human decision making. This outcome has the potential benefit of providing insight into decision mechanisms across a range of contexts, particularly ageing and models of applied decision making.Read moreRead less
The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact ....The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact of sociocultural context. It is anticipated that this novel integrative approach will substantially expand our understanding of misinformation effects, and that this theoretical progress will result in the formulation of specific communication strategies to reduce the impact of misinformation on society.Read moreRead less