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Bayesian analysis of individual decisions in health and labour economics. This project aims to exploit emerging Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop new approaches to modelling economic decision making. These methods will generate insights into two current and important policy debates. This includes (i) marijuana, alcohol and tobacco use and legalisation of marijuana use; and (ii) parental leave policies, maternity leave decisions and mothers' labour market dynamics. Although p ....Bayesian analysis of individual decisions in health and labour economics. This project aims to exploit emerging Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop new approaches to modelling economic decision making. These methods will generate insights into two current and important policy debates. This includes (i) marijuana, alcohol and tobacco use and legalisation of marijuana use; and (ii) parental leave policies, maternity leave decisions and mothers' labour market dynamics. Although policies play an important role in observed health and labour market behaviours, their exact effects on individuals' decisions and outcomes are often difficult to quantify due to the complex nature of the decision process. Outcomes from the project will include new evidence of changes in substance uses under different legal scenarios and provide benefits such as yielding vital evidence on labour market and health behaviour impacts to support policy makers and strengthen Australia's research capacity in Bayesian analysis.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100644
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$371,000.00
Summary
Nonlinear econometric panel models with fixed effects. This project aims to develop effective quantitative methods tailored to policy questions in public health and international trade. Many nonlinear panel models are essential to answer policy-relevant research questions, but cannot estimate key objects of interest, while default procedures for inference are often misleading, making magnitudes of identified effects impossible to quantify. This project will develop methods to overcome these limi ....Nonlinear econometric panel models with fixed effects. This project aims to develop effective quantitative methods tailored to policy questions in public health and international trade. Many nonlinear panel models are essential to answer policy-relevant research questions, but cannot estimate key objects of interest, while default procedures for inference are often misleading, making magnitudes of identified effects impossible to quantify. This project will develop methods to overcome these limitations for many econometric models, and apply them to important models in health economics and international trade. Such improvements are expected to reduce risk in public decision-making, resulting in better and more effective policies.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101270
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
The behavioural birthdate effect: the impact of relative position within cohorts on risk aversion, self-confidence and aspiration levels. The 'birthdate effect' describes the phenomenon where children born just after the school entry cut off date are more successful in life than those born just before. This project will study why these children make very different life choices, those born just after the cut-off date are expected to take greater risks and have higher self esteem.
Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empiric ....Micro-panel data with non-linear error components. This project aims to develop methods for panel data models with heterogeneous marginal effects and discrete choice outcomes, controlling for unobserved common factors and nonlinear error components; and apply the methodologies to analyse alcohol-fuelled violence and drug-related harm in Australia. The project lies at the forefront of advances in econometrics, and the outcomes are expected to broaden and deepen Australia’s knowledge base. Empirical outcomes should inform and evaluate evidence-based policy interventions for crime prevention, and influence policy making about public transport and economic growth.Read moreRead less
Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimat ....Partial Identification of Treatment Effects in Binary Response Models with Applications in Health Economics. The broad objectives of this project are to study the issues of partial identification in the context of models involving binary endogenous treatment variables and binary outcomes, and to investigate the implications for econometric estimation of policy effects in empirical economics. Identified sets for treatment effects for several Australian health economic applications will be estimated and compared with conventional point identified estimates. Performance of alternative bound estimators will be examined and particular attention given to the issue of the weakness of the instruments and the size of the bounds. The new theoretical developments in this literature have significant implications for empirical economics.Read moreRead less
Adaptive economic management of Australia's urban water. This project responds to the so-called 'wicked problem' of ensuring an adequate supply of water to urban consumers at the lowest price even during long-term droughts. The project will generate, for the first time in the world, an integrated, dynamic, and adaptive supply and demand model to manage urban water optimally over time.
Market Design for the Reallocation of Land. This fellowship uses laboratory and lab-in-the-field experiments to explores how market design can be used to develop combinatorial exchanges that allow participants to exchange packages of land. Allowing for package bids can facilitate trade in situations where owning one piece of land increases the value of adjacent land and where assembling contiguous pieces of land is important. Combinatorial exchanges have the potential to increase the productivit ....Market Design for the Reallocation of Land. This fellowship uses laboratory and lab-in-the-field experiments to explores how market design can be used to develop combinatorial exchanges that allow participants to exchange packages of land. Allowing for package bids can facilitate trade in situations where owning one piece of land increases the value of adjacent land and where assembling contiguous pieces of land is important. Combinatorial exchanges have the potential to increase the productivity of agriculture land in both Australia and developing countries, encourage urban redevelopment, and help the government secure land for infrastructure and environmental protection in a cost-effective way.Read moreRead less
Improving Choice Models: Multiple Goal Pursuit and Multi-Stage Decision Processes. This project aims to develop new econometric models of choice behaviour that recognise individuals adopt “how to decide” strategies when choosing between alternatives. Existing models simplistically assume that people evaluate all goods and choose the best of them, when in fact they ignore some goods, select what information is relevant, pursue multiple goals, and otherwise deviate from the assumptions commonly ma ....Improving Choice Models: Multiple Goal Pursuit and Multi-Stage Decision Processes. This project aims to develop new econometric models of choice behaviour that recognise individuals adopt “how to decide” strategies when choosing between alternatives. Existing models simplistically assume that people evaluate all goods and choose the best of them, when in fact they ignore some goods, select what information is relevant, pursue multiple goals, and otherwise deviate from the assumptions commonly made in econometric models. Filling in this significant gap in the choice modelling literature constitutes a significant contribution to improving our understanding of human decision making and policy analysis in every area of human endeavour.Read moreRead less
Accounting for preference seperability in stated choice experiments. This project aims to unite three separate streams of applied economic research into a single framework in order to develop a micro-economically consistent framework for demand forecasting and analysis. Forecasting demand to improve product performance or policy impacts requires realistic representations of how humans actually make choices. Combining theories of preference separability with recent developments in both activity a ....Accounting for preference seperability in stated choice experiments. This project aims to unite three separate streams of applied economic research into a single framework in order to develop a micro-economically consistent framework for demand forecasting and analysis. Forecasting demand to improve product performance or policy impacts requires realistic representations of how humans actually make choices. Combining theories of preference separability with recent developments in both activity and time use modelling and stated choice techniques, the project plans to develop new insights into consumer equilibrium as well as new econometric methods to test for the assumption of preference separability. Project outcomes would lead to an improved understanding of consumer behaviour as well as demand forecasting, with benefits to studies involving the need for benefit cost comparisons.Read moreRead less
Designing for uncertainty in conservation auctions. Economic theory and case study evidence show that tenders or auctions are more efficient than grant mechanisms for encouraging landholders to produce environmental outcomes on private land. These studies have ignored the effects of uncertainty of both bidders and administrators about factors such as landholder participation and the level of environmental benefits that will be delivered. This project will test whether distributing environmental ....Designing for uncertainty in conservation auctions. Economic theory and case study evidence show that tenders or auctions are more efficient than grant mechanisms for encouraging landholders to produce environmental outcomes on private land. These studies have ignored the effects of uncertainty of both bidders and administrators about factors such as landholder participation and the level of environmental benefits that will be delivered. This project will test whether distributing environmental funds via tenders is still efficient when uncertainty about various important factors is considered. Results from this research are expected to inform the cost effective design of systems to pay landholders for the provision of environmental benefits even when there is high uncertainty.Read moreRead less