Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island whic ....Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island which is the optimal site to capture El Niño variability at several different time scales, and will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric and oceanic factors that have caused climate variability.Read moreRead less
Metabolite pools and their implications for plant responses to global change. Australian landscape management faces significant challenges from existing land practices and the effects of climate change. Effective management and targeted remediation requires an understanding of the processes that drive ecosystem function. The development of broadly applicable tools for the monitoring of plant and ecosystem health is therefore of considerable interest. Flexibility in core processes of plant functi ....Metabolite pools and their implications for plant responses to global change. Australian landscape management faces significant challenges from existing land practices and the effects of climate change. Effective management and targeted remediation requires an understanding of the processes that drive ecosystem function. The development of broadly applicable tools for the monitoring of plant and ecosystem health is therefore of considerable interest. Flexibility in core processes of plant function represents a significant opportunity to develop such tools. With a focus on plant metabolites, this project will characterise how Australian trees alter the allocation of resources to cope with environmental changes and produce metabolite-based selective traits for stress tolerance in Australian trees. Read moreRead less
Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable ....Where will species go? Revolutionising projections of species distributions with climate change. Improving our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity is a National Research Priority and a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). Our research will revolutionise the field of bioclimatic modelling by enabling the probability of losses/gains in species distributions to be calculated. This will enable policy makers to identify vulnerable species and provides a strong framework for prioritizing areas for research and monitoring. Our research will interface two disciplines, earth and biological sciences, and establish a new international collaboration that will ensure Australia is at the forefront of a rapidly developing research field. Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Water resource management of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme catchment and the Murray-Darling River system - a new perspective on system reliability from drought history reconstruction. The Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme assists in underwriting the production of $3 billion of agricultural products in the Murray-Darling Basin each year by providing a reliable source of water west of the Great Dividing Range, while Hydro-electric generation from the Scheme is worth annually severa ....Water resource management of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme catchment and the Murray-Darling River system - a new perspective on system reliability from drought history reconstruction. The Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme assists in underwriting the production of $3 billion of agricultural products in the Murray-Darling Basin each year by providing a reliable source of water west of the Great Dividing Range, while Hydro-electric generation from the Scheme is worth annually several hundred million dollars and provides 70% of the renewable energy supplied to the eastern mainland grid, thereby avoiding 5Mt of carbon dioxide emissions each year. This study will ensure the ongoing sustainable and efficient management of the Schemes water resources in response to predicted climate variability and most importantly, severe drought. Read moreRead less
Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availabilit ....Stable water isotopic simulation and analysis to improve Earth System models and deliver better predictions of Australian water resource vulnerability. As Australia's challenges in environmental sustainability rival those anywhere on Earth, we must be clever in our diagnosis of susceptibility and insightful in proposed remedies. Climate change and variability have impacts on people and society that must be managed effectively whatever their causes. Of importance to Australia is the availability of water for drinking and agriculture. The new, interdisciplinary ARC network for Earth System Science provides models for novel and synergistic research such as naturally occurring water isotopes as a tool for improving predictive skill and confidence. We exploit these and leverage international programs to improve regional hydro-climate and water resource understanding in Australia.Read moreRead less