Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island whic ....Variability in El Niño frequency and intensity over the past 4000 years. Fossil corals contain a rich archive of past climate variability for tropical oceans which can extend the limited instrumental data and increase our understanding of climate sensitivity. El Niño variations in the Pacific have far-reaching impacts on Australian climate, and this project will reconstruct variations in the past in order to better forecast climate sensitivity in the future. It focuses on Christmas Island which is the optimal site to capture El Niño variability at several different time scales, and will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric and oceanic factors that have caused climate variability.Read moreRead less
Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the ....Assimilation of trace atmospheric constituents for climate (ATACC): Linking chemical weather and climate. Changes in atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide affect many aspects of surface climate from changes in ultraviolet radiation (ozone) to long-term changes in temperature (carbon dioxide). Better mapping of these gases will help us understand, predict and manage these changes. For ozone, it will clarify the link between ozone and surface weather. For carbon dioxide, improved knowledge of the impact of tropical deforestation, land clearing and changes in the southern ocean on atmospheric CO2 will support sustainable development in Australia and our region. The project hence addresses the priority goal 'Responding to climate change and variability` under the National Research Priority 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia`.
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Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantifi ....Improving understanding of climate change and its impacts in Australia through detection and attribution of climate change. This research will quantify the contribution to Australian regional climate change due to greenhouse gases, which will assist policymakers in reaching decisions about policies on emission reductions or adaptation to greenhouse climate change. Improved estimates of uncertainties in future regional climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gases will allow better quantification of their likely impacts, estimation of the costs or maximising any benefits from regional climate changes. Through collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, this research enhances Australia's capabilities in diagnostic analysis of climate variability and change, and aids the development and evaluation of new Australian climate models. Read moreRead less
Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat productio ....Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia, identification of regions at greater risk in the future and least likely to be viable in the longer run, and identification of effective adaptive management strategies designed to cope with these risks.Read moreRead less
Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulate ....Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.Read moreRead less
Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate var ....Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes. It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling ....Predicting soil loss from wind erosion, using an integrated, high resolution, land surface data assimilation-modelling system. Australia is an ancient, dry, continent. Soil losses from wind erosion are practically irreversible. Prevention of wind erosion, especially in agricultural areas, is a major challenge to agricultural communities and land management organisations. For continental and regional scale assessment of wind erosion potential, the high-resolution integrated wind erosion modelling system developed here is a powerful tool. The system will identify areas prone to soil erosion and provide a solid scientific basis for strategic and practical measures for wind erosion prevention. The proposal allows the CIs to continue to play a leading international role in this National Research Priority area.Read moreRead less
Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation m ....Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation method and order of operation on an unprecedented grand scale. Ultimately, this means that improved return period estimates could be calculated for the types of events that could lead to flooding. Understanding how, where and why it rains is vital for enabling sound decisions to be made by our planners and policy-makers.Read moreRead less
What caused abrupt climate change events in the past and what can they tell us about the future? This project will improve our understanding of abrupt climate change in the past, present and future. It will dramatically enhance Australia's capacity to use climate models to assess the probability and associated consequences of abrupt climate change in the future.