Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there ....Seasonal adjustment using disaggregated short time span data. Seasonally adjusted economic and social times series are vital information used by governments and businesses in decision making. This project will develop statistical methods to estimate and remove seasonal factors from economic and social time series using finely disaggregated data for a relatively small number of time periods. This will enable better and quicker estimation of seasonal factors when new series are introduced or there a major changes to existing series, improving the analysis of such series and the decisions based on them.Read moreRead less
New statistical tools for mineral exploration targeting and validation. Exploration for new mineral resources depends on information gleaned from geological survey data. This project confronts important, unsolved statistical problems in the analysis of geological survey data which have direct impact on exploration targeting.
Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sex-offenders in Australia: Assessing risk for practice and policy. A key priority of Australian governments is to improve community safety through reducing the risk of sex offenders re-offending after release from prison. This project will assess the validity of tools used to predict the risk of sexual offender recidivism and identify alternate risk assessment tools for Indigenous and non-Indigenous sex offenders.
A formal signal detection model of eyewitness identification. The project aims to aid in producing better procedures for the collection and assessment of eyewitness identification evidence. In a police line-up, a witness is asked to identify a perpetrator from a group of similar individuals. Applied research has focused on conditions that optimise witness performance but many of the conclusions from this research have been challenged on the basis that they use inappropriate measures of performan ....A formal signal detection model of eyewitness identification. The project aims to aid in producing better procedures for the collection and assessment of eyewitness identification evidence. In a police line-up, a witness is asked to identify a perpetrator from a group of similar individuals. Applied research has focused on conditions that optimise witness performance but many of the conclusions from this research have been challenged on the basis that they use inappropriate measures of performance. Recent work has highlighted the usefulness of analyses based on the theory of signal detection. However, the line-up task does not fit easily within standard signal detection paradigms as it combines two tasks; detection and identification. The project aims to understand how these components work in order to measure witness performance.Read moreRead less
Statistical methodology for events on a network, with application to road safety. This project develops new methods to analyse road traffic accident rates, aiming to identify accident black spots and to develop an evidence base for future road design and road safety management. These methods can be applied to other types of events on a network of roads, railways, rivers, electrical wires, communication networks or airline routes.
Towards a safer workplace: promoting healthy work environments through strategic research in memory and behaviour change. In collaboration with WorkCover NSW, psychologists plan to develop new strategies to promote healthy and safe work environments. The researchers will find how to: best motivate people to engage in healthy work practices and obtain comprehensive and accurate information about the causes of accidents.
Rates, Patterns And Determinants Of Alcohol’s Harm To Others: A Cross-national Comparative Study
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$305,856.00
Summary
Alcohol causes harms to drinkers, and others around them, including spouses, children, family, friends, workmates and strangers. Australian and New Zealand work on alcohol’s harm to others is being replicated by the WHO in 7 countries (Chile, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam). We aim to analyse datasets from nine countries and compare the magnitude and patterning of problems across and within cultures – identifying opportunities for reducing harm from others’ drinking.
Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research w ....Entropic Analysis of Financial Risk and Uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has shown that the financial markets are not as stable as expected, and are at risk from a lack of knowledge about new financial products and their risks. This research provides a framework to better measure and forecast financial risks by applying a set of techniques known collectively as entropic analysis as a novel way to measure the amount of information that can be extracted from historical data. The research will facilitate the design of policies and regulations by regulatory authorities that need to evaluate new financial products, their associated risks and their impacts on the financial markets.Read moreRead less
Stochastic Analysis with a View to Applications in Financial Risk Processes. Recent decades have seen explosive growth in applications of probability theory and statistics to the modelling of risk in finance and insurance. An intensive theoretical investigation into passage time and other problems for Levy and other continuous time processes will be applied to financial risk analyses. Related investigations will involve perpetuities and stochastic volatility models for price series. Outcomes ....Stochastic Analysis with a View to Applications in Financial Risk Processes. Recent decades have seen explosive growth in applications of probability theory and statistics to the modelling of risk in finance and insurance. An intensive theoretical investigation into passage time and other problems for Levy and other continuous time processes will be applied to financial risk analyses. Related investigations will involve perpetuities and stochastic volatility models for price series. Outcomes will include the development of new theory in probability and statistics, the initiation and reinforcement of collaborative ties with major international research figures, and the fostering of contacts with the finance industry.Read moreRead less
The quality of prisons for Indigenous persons in custody: determining how prison impacts on culture, community life and recidivism. International experience with Indigenous prisoners suggests prison need not be the void it presently is for too many traditional Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders. Through working in partnership with prisoners from primarily remote communities and two State jurisdictions, a nationally applicable measure of Indigenous prison quality will be developed. For the ....The quality of prisons for Indigenous persons in custody: determining how prison impacts on culture, community life and recidivism. International experience with Indigenous prisoners suggests prison need not be the void it presently is for too many traditional Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders. Through working in partnership with prisoners from primarily remote communities and two State jurisdictions, a nationally applicable measure of Indigenous prison quality will be developed. For the first time, this research will provide insight into how Australian Indigenous culture and spirituality relates to prison quality and how prison can be more effectively applied in crime reduction. The ultimate national benefit is a contribution to better health and safety in remote Indigenous communities through custodial reform and reduced criminal justice costs through lower recidivism.Read moreRead less