Economic Reform and Australian Electoral Decision Making. Australia has undergone dramatic economic, demographic and social change in the past twenty years. This project will investigate how these changes have impacted upon elector behaviour. With compulsory voting, comprehensive census data and the Australian Election Study an uniquely detailed dataset can be constructed. This dataset and the application of ?cutting edge? statistical techniques from the fields of cohort analysis and discrete ch ....Economic Reform and Australian Electoral Decision Making. Australia has undergone dramatic economic, demographic and social change in the past twenty years. This project will investigate how these changes have impacted upon elector behaviour. With compulsory voting, comprehensive census data and the Australian Election Study an uniquely detailed dataset can be constructed. This dataset and the application of ?cutting edge? statistical techniques from the fields of cohort analysis and discrete choice modelling will allow for the untangling of various influences on voter behaviour. With compulsory voting many biases due to voter turnout issues will be avoided making this project an unbiased test, with international interest and significance, of voter behaviour.Read moreRead less
A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simul ....A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simulation based estimator to circumvent the statistical and computational problems associated with existing estimators. The expected outcome of the project will be a more reliable way to monitor the phases of the cycle and forecast turning points, which will be of substantial national benefit.Read moreRead less
Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were ....Multiscale Singularly Perturbed Control Systems. We propose to develop a unified averaging technique to analyse deterministic and stochastic multiscale singularly perturbed control systems. Such systems arise as mathematical models of real-world dynamical systems in which state variables can change their values with the rates of different orders of magnitude. The technique is based on the assumption that the system, which would describe the dynamics of the fast state variables if slow ones were frozen, possesses certain ergodicity properties expressed in the existence of its limit occupational measures set. Conditions for the existence of such a set will be studied and its structure will be described.Read moreRead less
An econometric analysis of the effects of family benefit policies on fertility, saving and labour force participation in Australia. This project will help to 'strengthen Australia's economic fabric' by improving our understanding of the effect of family benefit policies on fertility, saving and labour force participation. This is important because boosting fertility and labour force participation are both seen as ways of mitigating the economic burden of population ageing, thereby helping Austra ....An econometric analysis of the effects of family benefit policies on fertility, saving and labour force participation in Australia. This project will help to 'strengthen Australia's economic fabric' by improving our understanding of the effect of family benefit policies on fertility, saving and labour force participation. This is important because boosting fertility and labour force participation are both seen as ways of mitigating the economic burden of population ageing, thereby helping Australia to 'age well, age productively' in a national sense. Also, achieving a desired level of national saving is a medium term goal of government economic policy. Hence it is important to understand the interaction of saving, fertility and labour force participation in order to develop compatible and effective economic policies.Read moreRead less
Modelling, forecasting, and control for econometrics based on generalized dynamic factor models: a system theoretic approach. The project will provide a tool that will assist organizations wishing to understand the dynamics of a national economy to model it, and to forecast future econometric time series values. Such ability will provide another tool to econometric managers, including the Reserve Bank , Treasury and fund managers, that should benefit the Australian nation.
Occupational Measures Approach to Long Run Average and Singularly Perturbed Optimal Control Problems. Problems of optimal control of long-run average and singularly perturbed systems arise in many applications. The project will lead to the development of new linear programming based techniques for analyzing these problems (including problems intractable so far) and finding their numerical solutions. The new techniques will have a potential to be further developed into software that can benefit A ....Occupational Measures Approach to Long Run Average and Singularly Perturbed Optimal Control Problems. Problems of optimal control of long-run average and singularly perturbed systems arise in many applications. The project will lead to the development of new linear programming based techniques for analyzing these problems (including problems intractable so far) and finding their numerical solutions. The new techniques will have a potential to be further developed into software that can benefit Australian industries and technologies. The proposed topic is in the focus of interest of many eminent researchers around the world and the dissemination of our results will further improve Australia's standing in the international research community. Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to unders ....The US Interest Rate Conundrum and its Implications for Australia. The project generalises existing factor models of interest rates. The project will result in several benefits nationally as well as internationally. As U.S. interest rates and U.S. monetary policy in general are important determinants of interest rates in Australia, the project will lead to an improved understanding of the international mechanism linking interest rates. This will also provide a better framework in which to understand and monitor monetary policy in Australia. An important aspect of the project is the development of new testing procedures that improve upon existing nonparametric methods.Read moreRead less
Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit ....Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit stability. Second, a number of empirical puzzles relating to monetary policy and asset markets in general, that exist in the empirical literature, will be solved. Third, the project will lead to a number of international papers which will add to the international reputation of Australia as a leading research nation.Read moreRead less
Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstra ....Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstrap) methods, which will provide a much-needed improvement over the existing (asymptotic) methods for making inference about the long-run. Our research will lead to more reliable models for long-term planning in business, industry and government.Read moreRead less