Advanced matrix-analytic methods with applications. Over the last twenty-five years, matrix-analytic methods have proved to be very successful in formulating and analysing certain classes of stochastic models. Motivated by applications, this project will investigate more advanced matrix-analytic methods than have hitherto been studied.
Collision Avoidance in Shipping Lanes via Intelligent Sensor Data Fusion . This project aims to develop an online maritime traffic monitoring system for reliable collision/contact avoidance that exploits complementary data from high-resolution airborne sensors and surface vessel sensors. Our approach is based on optimal scheduling and fusion of the sensor data and possibly other sources of data to construct a comprehensive dynamic picture of maritime traffic, in real-time. Moreover, the proposed ....Collision Avoidance in Shipping Lanes via Intelligent Sensor Data Fusion . This project aims to develop an online maritime traffic monitoring system for reliable collision/contact avoidance that exploits complementary data from high-resolution airborne sensors and surface vessel sensors. Our approach is based on optimal scheduling and fusion of the sensor data and possibly other sources of data to construct a comprehensive dynamic picture of maritime traffic, in real-time. Moreover, the proposed methodology enables quantification of confidence in the predictions. This will provide ship owners, directly to their vessels and/or at the fleet management centres, information such as weather reports, reliable collision/no-collision warnings and avoidance strategies, on-the-fly. Read moreRead less
Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved ....Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved understanding, modelling, and tracking of the spread of diseases.Read moreRead less
Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project ....Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project aims to develop novel and effective algorithmic techniques and statistical methods for a class of branching processes with dependences. We will use these results to study significant problems in the conservation of endangered island bird populations in Oceania, and to help inform their conservation management.Read moreRead less
The fundamental equations for inversion of operator pencils. This project seeks to deepen understanding of how complex systems may be significantly changed by incremental changes to ambient conditions. Mathematical models of complex systems (climate change processes, optimal driving strategies, efficient distribution policies, effective search routines) often depend on key parameters. If small perturbations to the parameters cause large changes to the solution, then the perturbations are said to ....The fundamental equations for inversion of operator pencils. This project seeks to deepen understanding of how complex systems may be significantly changed by incremental changes to ambient conditions. Mathematical models of complex systems (climate change processes, optimal driving strategies, efficient distribution policies, effective search routines) often depend on key parameters. If small perturbations to the parameters cause large changes to the solution, then the perturbations are said to be singular. This project aims to reveal the underlying mathematical structures and develop new computational algorithms to analyse a general class of perturbed systems both locally near an isolated singularity and globally. It plans to use these algorithms to solve systems of equations, calculate generalised inverse operators, examine perturbed Markov processes, and estimate exit times from meta-stable states in stochastic population dynamics.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100690
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$373,316.00
Summary
Mathematical modelling of the early stages of multicellular evolution. This project aims to develop new mathematical methodology to understand the early stages of the evolution of multicellular organisms from unicellular ancestors. This is the best known example of the creation of a new level of biological organisation. However, the early stages of this transition are poorly understood, especially how early groups of cells came to possess Darwinian characteristics, which then allows natural sele ....Mathematical modelling of the early stages of multicellular evolution. This project aims to develop new mathematical methodology to understand the early stages of the evolution of multicellular organisms from unicellular ancestors. This is the best known example of the creation of a new level of biological organisation. However, the early stages of this transition are poorly understood, especially how early groups of cells came to possess Darwinian characteristics, which then allows natural selection to act on them. It is anticipated that the models produced will be used to give the first mechanistic account of this intrinsically stochastic, multi-level, phenomenon. This may lead to new insights into the emergence and subsequent evolution of simple multicellular life cycles and early forms of development.Read moreRead less
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Perturbations in Complex Systems and Games. This project aims to: advance the perturbation theory of dynamic and stochastic games; further develop approximations of infinite dimensional linear programs by their finite dimensional counterparts, and by finding asymptotic limits of spaces of occupational measures, by solution of successive layers of fundamental equations; explain and quantify the "exceptionality" of instances of systems that are genuinely difficult to solve; and, capitalise on the ....Perturbations in Complex Systems and Games. This project aims to: advance the perturbation theory of dynamic and stochastic games; further develop approximations of infinite dimensional linear programs by their finite dimensional counterparts, and by finding asymptotic limits of spaces of occupational measures, by solution of successive layers of fundamental equations; explain and quantify the "exceptionality" of instances of systems that are genuinely difficult to solve; and, capitalise on the outstanding performance of our Snakes-and-Ladders Heuristic (SLH) for the solution of the Hamiltonian cycle problem to identify its "fixed complexity orbits" and generalise this notion to other NP-complete problems.Read moreRead less
Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. I ....Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. In such work, three themes have emerged as having the potential to revolutionise the modelling of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure (both age and spatial), and inference. This project will develop state-of-the-art techniques, at the interface of these themes, of critical importance to understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases.Read moreRead less
Congestion recovery and optimisation of patient flows. Australian public hospitals often experience congestion due to growing demand and limited resources, resulting in disruptions in service delivery and risks in quality of care. This project will apply advanced techniques and methodologies from mathematical sciences and computer modelling to alleviate this important healthcare delivery problem.