Economic modelling for Australia and the USA: forecasts, policy analysis and comparative studies of technology and labour market adjustment. This project involves: a fundamental overhaul of MONASH, a widely used detailed dynamic model of the Australian economy; the creation of MONASH-USA for the United States; and several model-based Australia/US comparisons. MONASH's database and parameters will be updated, and its theoretical specification improved. MONASH-USA will be an advance over existing ....Economic modelling for Australia and the USA: forecasts, policy analysis and comparative studies of technology and labour market adjustment. This project involves: a fundamental overhaul of MONASH, a widely used detailed dynamic model of the Australian economy; the creation of MONASH-USA for the United States; and several model-based Australia/US comparisons. MONASH's database and parameters will be updated, and its theoretical specification improved. MONASH-USA will be an advance over existing US models and will generate policy results of interest both in the United States and Australia. MONASH-USA will have an excellent database and is likely to produce insights on parameter estimation. These will be applicable in Australia. Together, MONASH and MONASH-USA will facilitate comparative studies of technology and labour-market performance.Read moreRead less
Estimating the impact of fiscal stimulus on household expenditure. This project aims to measure the impact on household expenditure of unexpected government bonus payments. Precise measures of this parameter can help improve fiscal policy in Australia and overseas, whilst giving researchers a more precise understanding of how households react to unexpected increases in disposable income. This research will also make a methodological contribution, since we will be using a research methodology not ....Estimating the impact of fiscal stimulus on household expenditure. This project aims to measure the impact on household expenditure of unexpected government bonus payments. Precise measures of this parameter can help improve fiscal policy in Australia and overseas, whilst giving researchers a more precise understanding of how households react to unexpected increases in disposable income. This research will also make a methodological contribution, since we will be using a research methodology not previously implemented in Australia, which is to exploit the random timing of payments across households, combined with a unique household-level panel dataset on weekly expenditure. The project will compare results using this approach with results from other strategies, such as surveys and time series analysis.Read moreRead less
Estimating the impact of fiscal stimulus on household expenditure. The tax bonus payments of the $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan were among the largest fiscal policy packages in the developed world. This project applies a new methodology to estimate the short-term impact of this cash handout on consumer spending, allowing better modelling of the Australian economy.
An Integrated Approach to the Timing of Retirement: Life Cycle, Labour Force Heterogeneity, Financial Status and Public Support. This project will generate new knowledge on household decision making over retirement timing. National benefits will be generated through improved institutional design and policy formulation, which in turn will promote a labour market conducive to increased mature-age participation. The project involves collaboration across several institutions and will contribute to t ....An Integrated Approach to the Timing of Retirement: Life Cycle, Labour Force Heterogeneity, Financial Status and Public Support. This project will generate new knowledge on household decision making over retirement timing. National benefits will be generated through improved institutional design and policy formulation, which in turn will promote a labour market conducive to increased mature-age participation. The project involves collaboration across several institutions and will contribute to the development of research expertise through the training of PhDs and research assistants, creating a critical threshold of integrated research into ageing. This will facilitate a world-class presence in this important domain, thus contributing directly to the National Research Priority of Ageing Well, Ageing Productively.Read moreRead less
The Labour Supply and Saving of Older Australians: Behavioural Responses and Economic Impact. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of labour force participation and saving behaviour of those in the retirement "window" (55-65 years), through econometric investigation, economy-wide modelling, and stochastic simulation. Such analysis is important because demographic transition is triggering volatile change in retirement related policies. Neither saving behaviour un ....The Labour Supply and Saving of Older Australians: Behavioural Responses and Economic Impact. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of labour force participation and saving behaviour of those in the retirement "window" (55-65 years), through econometric investigation, economy-wide modelling, and stochastic simulation. Such analysis is important because demographic transition is triggering volatile change in retirement related policies. Neither saving behaviour under a mandatory retirement saving regime nor labour supply in the retirement window is well understood. Aggregate labour supply and saving response to policy change have major implications for both government obligations and market efficiency. The outcomes of the project are thus expected to better inform policy formulation.Read moreRead less
Job vacancies in Australia. The objective of this project is to improve understanding of available measures of job vacancies in the Australian economy, and how those measures can be applied to study the operation of the labour market and in forecasting macroeconomic outcomes. It will increase knowledge about the appropriate use of alternative measures of vacancies, and how those measures have been affected by changes to methods of job search and hiring with the advent of the internet and labour ....Job vacancies in Australia. The objective of this project is to improve understanding of available measures of job vacancies in the Australian economy, and how those measures can be applied to study the operation of the labour market and in forecasting macroeconomic outcomes. It will increase knowledge about the appropriate use of alternative measures of vacancies, and how those measures have been affected by changes to methods of job search and hiring with the advent of the internet and labour hire agencies. The significance of the project derives from the important role of measures of vacancies in labour market and macroeconomic analysis in Australia.Read moreRead less
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
The Dynamics of Low Income, Welfare reliance, and Changes in the Family Stucture of Parents with Dependent children. We build a new seven-year longitudinal database, from FaCS administrative records and supplementary surveys, for low income parents with dependent children to analyse the dynamics of, and interrationships among, changes in family structure, income and welfare reliance. We identify and analyse exit and entry routes from low income, short and long run welfare receipt and movement fr ....The Dynamics of Low Income, Welfare reliance, and Changes in the Family Stucture of Parents with Dependent children. We build a new seven-year longitudinal database, from FaCS administrative records and supplementary surveys, for low income parents with dependent children to analyse the dynamics of, and interrationships among, changes in family structure, income and welfare reliance. We identify and analyse exit and entry routes from low income, short and long run welfare receipt and movement from one program to another, and highlight locational/regional variations in these movements. The project will help policy makers evaluate the impacts of existing programs and will change the nature and significance of Australian research and policy development in welfare dependency and support.Read moreRead less
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an e ....Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future. The findings of the project will be available before the new Kyoto negotiation round commences.Read moreRead less
A Review of Work for the Dole as a Labour Market Program. The project will review the Work for the Dole program in terms of its first formal objective (to install work habits in young people)and in the wider context of giving young unemployed people the skills and confidence that will increase their chances of finding employment. The principal research tools used will be sample surveys and in-depth interviews. An independent substantial review will give a firm basis for discussions of the progr ....A Review of Work for the Dole as a Labour Market Program. The project will review the Work for the Dole program in terms of its first formal objective (to install work habits in young people)and in the wider context of giving young unemployed people the skills and confidence that will increase their chances of finding employment. The principal research tools used will be sample surveys and in-depth interviews. An independent substantial review will give a firm basis for discussions of the program, including how it can be improved and whether or not, given the political imperatives to retain it,it is desirable to increase expenditure on it.Read moreRead less