Technological innovation, trade liberalization, unemployment, and policy design. Australia, like all economies, is heavily influenced by technological changes and shifting trade patterns. Understanding these influences, and the impact they have on the distribution of income, the unemployment rate, and the job mix, is very important for the design of appropriate policy initiatives. The proposed research aims to achieve exactly this by developing a mathematical model which incorporates technologic ....Technological innovation, trade liberalization, unemployment, and policy design. Australia, like all economies, is heavily influenced by technological changes and shifting trade patterns. Understanding these influences, and the impact they have on the distribution of income, the unemployment rate, and the job mix, is very important for the design of appropriate policy initiatives. The proposed research aims to achieve exactly this by developing a mathematical model which incorporates technological change, trade, and unemployment. The model will be used to analyse the effects of these changes and, thus, to design optimal policy. The results from this project should also stimulate policy discussions both within Australia and abroad - enriching academic relations between domestic and international universities.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications. Relationships between economic variables are often characterised by non-linearities. This project develops a method to analyse a type of non-linearity that is frequently encountered in economics and uses this method to study four specific applications concerning the dynamics of inflation, growth, and the exchange rate.
An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address maj ....An Improved Framework for Analysing the Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing. The Commonwealth Government's 'National Strategy for an Ageing Australia' explicitly acknowledged the potential for intergenerational conflict in Australia as relatively fewer young people must provide for the consumption of a growing proportion of retired people. The Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 was an important step in national planning to avoid such a conflict. The proposed project seeks to address major shortcomings in the IGR and provide an improved framework for future IGRs. The project addresses two Priority Goals within the Designated National Research Priority 2. These are: 'Ageing well, ageing productively' and 'strengthening Australia's social and economic fabric'.Read moreRead less
How does the Structure of Government, in Particular the Extent of Fiscal Decentralisation, Affect Long Term Economic Performance in Australia? The research analyses how Australia should best structure its government to maximise long-term economic performance in terms of economic growth and the optimal provision of public goods such as health, education and other public infrastructure. The optimal division of revenue raising and spending responsibilities between the federal government, State gove ....How does the Structure of Government, in Particular the Extent of Fiscal Decentralisation, Affect Long Term Economic Performance in Australia? The research analyses how Australia should best structure its government to maximise long-term economic performance in terms of economic growth and the optimal provision of public goods such as health, education and other public infrastructure. The optimal division of revenue raising and spending responsibilities between the federal government, State governments and other sub-national bodies like city and regional councils will be rigorously assessed from an economic perspective. The research will lead to recommendations regarding improvements in the structure of Australia's government sector, particularly the extent and nature of fiscal decentralisation, capable of improving productivity and future living standards.Read moreRead less
The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate w ....The Role of a Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in Shaping the Economy. In response to the global financial crisis, the world’s major central banks cut their rates to near zero and implemented untested unconventional monetary policies, significantly expanding the size and composition of their balance sheets. More than a decade later, the Reserve Bank of Australia is considering similar balance sheet policies. This proposal aims to develop various frameworks that can be used to simulate and evaluate when and how to eventually undo unconventional monetary policies in order to prevent a prolonged recession. Thus this research proposal will contribute to the current Australian monetary policy debate while providing some insights on how best to implement such policies, improving the living standards of Australians.Read moreRead less
Lifelong Education and Health Investment: Implications for Life Expectancy, Economic Growth and Public Policy. This project will provide Australian policymakers a clear picture of the complex interaction between various policy instruments including subsidies on health and education and income support for retirees and children on the one hand, and socioeconomic outcomes including saving rates, labour participation, productivity, fertility, life expectancy and inequality on the other hand. This kn ....Lifelong Education and Health Investment: Implications for Life Expectancy, Economic Growth and Public Policy. This project will provide Australian policymakers a clear picture of the complex interaction between various policy instruments including subsidies on health and education and income support for retirees and children on the one hand, and socioeconomic outcomes including saving rates, labour participation, productivity, fertility, life expectancy and inequality on the other hand. This knowledge can be used to frame government policies in the areas of health, education, superannuation and pension, and family support. In particular, the project will inform policymakers about the mix of private and public funding of the health system that can produce better health and social outcomes.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
How does alcohol sponsorship of sport affect drinking behaviour and attitudes in at risk youth? Implications for public policy and the sport industry. This project responds to national and international research priorities by examining the controversial association between sponsorship of sport by alcohol brands and consumption behaviour in target youth and sportspeople. The research is large scale and multidisciplinary, and will impact policy development and the business of sport in Australia.