Designing Weather Derivatives and Yield Index Contracts for Rural Australia. This project addresses the security of communities in rural areas. Successful risk management based on weather derivatives and yield index contracts will stabilise the income of rural industries and improve the financial viability of rural communities. It will allow systemic risks from climate change to be reinsured with financial institutions, maintain some of Australia's most important export industries and help maint ....Designing Weather Derivatives and Yield Index Contracts for Rural Australia. This project addresses the security of communities in rural areas. Successful risk management based on weather derivatives and yield index contracts will stabilise the income of rural industries and improve the financial viability of rural communities. It will allow systemic risks from climate change to be reinsured with financial institutions, maintain some of Australia's most important export industries and help maintain leadership in climate risk research. It will use state of the art methods to derive and estimate nonlinear yield indexes, and develop new option pricing methods to value the premium that farmers should pay for a yield index contract. Finally it will evaluate the likely adoption by farmers using nonlinear portfolio theory.Read moreRead less
Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measure ....Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measures of risk’ beyond just-expected values and quantiles offer hope of major new advances. This project aims to achieve such advances not only in optimisation but also in models of equilibrium that likewise have to deal with uncertainty. Extending current theory and methodology to such multi-stage stochastic models is a challenge. Besides taking up this challenge for its own sake, a major goal of this research will be to use the results in solution algorithms.Read moreRead less
Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investmen ....Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.Read moreRead less
Designing a Holistic Model of Advice to Improve Retirement Planning. We aim to improve retirement planning through the design and application of a new model integrating financial advice with career and health planning to optimise financial and psychological outcomes. We will test a multidisciplinary, holistic model of advice combining specialist knowledge in careers, health, and finances. Expected outcomes of the project include evaluating the use of a broader range of experts during retirement ....Designing a Holistic Model of Advice to Improve Retirement Planning. We aim to improve retirement planning through the design and application of a new model integrating financial advice with career and health planning to optimise financial and psychological outcomes. We will test a multidisciplinary, holistic model of advice combining specialist knowledge in careers, health, and finances. Expected outcomes of the project include evaluating the use of a broader range of experts during retirement planning and developing a model for the future training and development of financial advisers.By optimising the timing of workplace exit, we aim to decrease reliance on pensions and encourage earlier and on-going engagement in the retirement planning process. This will provide significant social and economic benefits.Read moreRead less
Improving risk management based on short-term stochastic forecast for financial decisions. The project targets the problems of strategy selection in the framework of mathematical finance. The aim is to find ways to reduce the impact of forecast errors in the presence of uncertainty. Related forecasting algorithms and solutions of optimization problems will be obtained.
New methods for modelling and forecasting risk. The project will develop and assess risk measures and risk forecasting. It will assess why customary measures failed in the financial crisis and develop new and better techniques. The project is unique in terms of the scope and range of methods to be applied and tested. It will be of value to investors, institutions and regulators alike.
Designing for uncertainty in conservation auctions. Economic theory and case study evidence show that tenders or auctions are more efficient than grant mechanisms for encouraging landholders to produce environmental outcomes on private land. These studies have ignored the effects of uncertainty of both bidders and administrators about factors such as landholder participation and the level of environmental benefits that will be delivered. This project will test whether distributing environmental ....Designing for uncertainty in conservation auctions. Economic theory and case study evidence show that tenders or auctions are more efficient than grant mechanisms for encouraging landholders to produce environmental outcomes on private land. These studies have ignored the effects of uncertainty of both bidders and administrators about factors such as landholder participation and the level of environmental benefits that will be delivered. This project will test whether distributing environmental funds via tenders is still efficient when uncertainty about various important factors is considered. Results from this research are expected to inform the cost effective design of systems to pay landholders for the provision of environmental benefits even when there is high uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Redesigning Landcare policy to better coordinate across landholders. This project aims to study how landscape-sensitive economic incentives and social norms can be leveraged to enhance the short- and long-term effectiveness of conservation programs. It will yield new knowledge for innovative designs in conservation contracting that is urgently needed to address worsening environmental threats in Australia and worldwide. In collaboration with Nobel laureate Vernon Smith’s team, new methods and pr ....Redesigning Landcare policy to better coordinate across landholders. This project aims to study how landscape-sensitive economic incentives and social norms can be leveraged to enhance the short- and long-term effectiveness of conservation programs. It will yield new knowledge for innovative designs in conservation contracting that is urgently needed to address worsening environmental threats in Australia and worldwide. In collaboration with Nobel laureate Vernon Smith’s team, new methods and protocols will improve our ability to generate better data and better understand how social and incentive mechanisms can constructively interact to facilitate collaborative environmental action. Results will help make the achievement of environmental targets and the use of public funds more cost-effective. Read moreRead less
Corporate governance, corporate disclosure policies and the timeliness of price discovery: How competitive is the Australian equity market? This project will help reduce the economic cost of poor corporate governance. It will facilitate more liquid financial markets and potentially it will increase the number and value of worthwhile investment opportunities by lowering the cost to finance them. It will assess Australia's competitive standing in the world's equity markets and establish whether ou ....Corporate governance, corporate disclosure policies and the timeliness of price discovery: How competitive is the Australian equity market? This project will help reduce the economic cost of poor corporate governance. It will facilitate more liquid financial markets and potentially it will increase the number and value of worthwhile investment opportunities by lowering the cost to finance them. It will assess Australia's competitive standing in the world's equity markets and establish whether our market is indeed transparent and a good place to raise risk capital. It will add needed credibility to corporate governance regulation. And it will enhance Australia's standing in the international research community because its research methods can be applied to almost any public capital market.Read moreRead less
Youth in Australia: Education and Work. This project examines, in an integrated way, the education decisions, transition from school to work, and the early labour market experience of youth from 1975 to the present time. The recent emphasis on Australia as a Knowledge Nation and a New Economy indicates that study of education decisions is a high priority. Similarly, pathways from school to work and the cumulative disadvantage that many youth experience in the labour market are leading contempo ....Youth in Australia: Education and Work. This project examines, in an integrated way, the education decisions, transition from school to work, and the early labour market experience of youth from 1975 to the present time. The recent emphasis on Australia as a Knowledge Nation and a New Economy indicates that study of education decisions is a high priority. Similarly, pathways from school to work and the cumulative disadvantage that many youth experience in the labour market are leading contemporary economic and social issues. The project is expected to yield insights into the determinants of educational attainment, best pathways and the channels of influence on labour market success and failure that will be policy relevant and publishable in refereed journals.Read moreRead less