The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150101889
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$350,000.00
Summary
Insider trading in financial markets. Insider trading destroys confidence in financial markets and undermines their fairness and efficiency. Substantial amounts of taxpayer money are spent each year in combatting insider trading, and yet cases of insider trading remain abundant. This project aims to advance our understanding of insider trading, its prevalence, social costs, characteristics and determinants, and how it responds to different penalties. This project aims to allow for more efficient ....Insider trading in financial markets. Insider trading destroys confidence in financial markets and undermines their fairness and efficiency. Substantial amounts of taxpayer money are spent each year in combatting insider trading, and yet cases of insider trading remain abundant. This project aims to advance our understanding of insider trading, its prevalence, social costs, characteristics and determinants, and how it responds to different penalties. This project aims to allow for more efficient use of regulatory resources through better rules, more accurate detection methods, and increased deterrence. It aims to benefit society through fairer and more efficient markets.Read moreRead less
Household mortgage choice: theoretical and empirical evidence. A house is often the largest component of household assets, and financing its purchase involves choosing a mortgage product from many alternatives. Inefficiencies and incompleteness in mortgage markets have important consequences. This project uncovers theoretical and empirical evidence on why Australians choose particular mortgage products.
Detecting financial contagion using high frequency data. Financial crises spread extraordinarily quickly. However, existing tools for measuring this spread use relatively low frequency data. This project develops tools for measuring and detecting periods of stress and the effects of financial contagion in financial markets, using high frequency data based on recorded transaction prices.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200101266
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$420,039.00
Summary
Demystifying Puzzles in Retirement Planning. This project aims to investigate optimal retirement planning with stochastic and ambiguous mortality/longevity risks not previously considered in a unifying framework. By using an innovative approach utilising techniques from actuarial science, financial mathematics and stochastic control, this project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of personal longevity risk management. Expected outcome of the project include new insights to several pu ....Demystifying Puzzles in Retirement Planning. This project aims to investigate optimal retirement planning with stochastic and ambiguous mortality/longevity risks not previously considered in a unifying framework. By using an innovative approach utilising techniques from actuarial science, financial mathematics and stochastic control, this project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of personal longevity risk management. Expected outcome of the project include new insights to several puzzling questions in retirement studies. This should provide significant benefits to retirement education for retirees facing the risk of outliving retirement savings, thereby mitigating the pressing challenge caused by population ageing and longevity risk to pension systems in many countries.Read moreRead less
Endgame: managing superannuation in later life. This project aims to come up with strategies for improving superannuation advice for the elderly - including retirees, and also those on the cusp of retirement, who often have little or no scope for working harder or longer to restore their finances. It applies recent developments in financial economics to improve the quality of financial planning advice.
What women want: unravelling the factors underlying women's financial decision-making behaviour. By the time women retire, they are generally worse off financially than men. This national study will be the first to measure the impact of underlying factors that explain rather than describe the financial decision-making behaviour of women, and how financial decision-making and economic outcomes for women might be improved.
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100034
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,002,560.00
Summary
Black swans and unknown unknowns: financial markets and their interaction with the macroeconomy in the presence of unanticipated contingencies. Unforeseen contingencies, also called 'black swans' or 'unknown unknowns' pose serious difficulties for decisionmakers. This project will examine how financial regulation can be improved to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system and the macroeconomy to unforeseen shocks.
Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measure ....Risk and Reliability in Stochastic Optimisation and Equilibrium. This project seeks to develop theory and methodology in optimisation which take advantage of recent progress in understanding and treating risk in decision making. Problems of optimisation in the face of uncertainty must confront the risk inherent in having to make reliable decisions before knowing the outcomes of crucial random variables on which costs and constraints may depend. Recent theoretical developments, featuring ‘measures of risk’ beyond just-expected values and quantiles offer hope of major new advances. This project aims to achieve such advances not only in optimisation but also in models of equilibrium that likewise have to deal with uncertainty. Extending current theory and methodology to such multi-stage stochastic models is a challenge. Besides taking up this challenge for its own sake, a major goal of this research will be to use the results in solution algorithms.Read moreRead less
Better communication to solve the under-saving, under-spending puzzle. This project expects to develop evidence-based communication tools that promote life-time financial security, specifically investigating the puzzling and harmful tendency of people to under-save while working and under-spend while retired. To achieve this goal, it will design and experimentally validate innovative boosts to superannuation communication including income projections and goal-setting targeted at common misconcep ....Better communication to solve the under-saving, under-spending puzzle. This project expects to develop evidence-based communication tools that promote life-time financial security, specifically investigating the puzzling and harmful tendency of people to under-save while working and under-spend while retired. To achieve this goal, it will design and experimentally validate innovative boosts to superannuation communication including income projections and goal-setting targeted at common misconceptions and biases. It will use new structural modelling techniques to measure welfare changes. The expected outcomes are rigorous explanations for the saving-spending puzzle, and robust communication strategies for superannuation funds that will benefit workers and retirees by raising financial capability and confidence.Read moreRead less