Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investmen ....Modelling non-linear price dynamics of primary commodities that are affected by seasonality, significant storage costs, and slow adjustment. Australia's economy relies substantially on exports of commodities. However, recent volatility of commodity prices has created tremendous uncertainties for traders, producers and consumers of those commodities. This adversely affects our national economy through the disruption of agricultural and mining production, and also more broadly impacts on investment, employment and gross domestic income. This research will model more accurately the complex dynamics of primary commodity prices and their inter-market linkages, which will allow traders, producers and consumers to better forecast commodity price movements and protect themselves through inventory management, hedging and long-run production planning.Read moreRead less
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
China's Exports and Growth and Major East Asia Summit Economies - Exploring Regional Impact and Policy Responses. The project benefits Australia's current long-term economic priorities and engagement with Asia in five ways. It provides: (1) collaborative research with East Asia Summit (EAS) networked experts on topics of mutual interest, (2) a new perspective on the effects of China on EAS4 trade and growth, (3) substantive improved findings on EAS4 economic and trade policy options, (4) signifi ....China's Exports and Growth and Major East Asia Summit Economies - Exploring Regional Impact and Policy Responses. The project benefits Australia's current long-term economic priorities and engagement with Asia in five ways. It provides: (1) collaborative research with East Asia Summit (EAS) networked experts on topics of mutual interest, (2) a new perspective on the effects of China on EAS4 trade and growth, (3) substantive improved findings on EAS4 economic and trade policy options, (4) significant inputs to analysis, debates and negotiations in the recently proposed EAS free trade agreement (FTA), and (5) useful applications to Australia's similar bilateral FTAs under negotiation (e.g., Australia-Korea and Japan FTAs).Read moreRead less
Globalization, WTO and sustainable development: new challenges, opportunities and implications for Australia. Australia is benefiting greatly from opening its economy and encouraging the same in its trading partners, particularly through the World Trade Organization (WTO). A major new challenge is to ensure that the WTO continues to enhance economic welfare by responding to recent criticisms levelled at it by anti-globalization groups. This project will analyse those groups' claims about the eff ....Globalization, WTO and sustainable development: new challenges, opportunities and implications for Australia. Australia is benefiting greatly from opening its economy and encouraging the same in its trading partners, particularly through the World Trade Organization (WTO). A major new challenge is to ensure that the WTO continues to enhance economic welfare by responding to recent criticisms levelled at it by anti-globalization groups. This project will analyse those groups' claims about the effects of trade and investment policy reforms, and of WTO rules and other contributors to globalization, by going beyond the traditional economic effects to examine effects on income distribution, poverty alleviation, the environment, labour, and food safety and security.Read moreRead less
Understanding market mechanisms and determinants of transaction costs to achieve greater efficiency in Australian fixed-income markets. This project will provide information to policymakers and regulators, enabling the evolution of optimal fixed-income markets, with significant benefits for individuals and the national economy. These benefits will be both short-term (current wealth) and long-term (retirement saving). It will promote Australia as the leader in constructing optimal fixed-income ma ....Understanding market mechanisms and determinants of transaction costs to achieve greater efficiency in Australian fixed-income markets. This project will provide information to policymakers and regulators, enabling the evolution of optimal fixed-income markets, with significant benefits for individuals and the national economy. These benefits will be both short-term (current wealth) and long-term (retirement saving). It will promote Australia as the leader in constructing optimal fixed-income markets, which can be applied to similar markets around the world. Finally, training research students will develop research infrastructure in Australia, and contribute to produce a generation of specialists who will increase Australia's international standing in financial research and its ability to manage an increasingly complex economy.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it ....A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it to produce forecasts of both volatility itself and the premia factored into asset prices as a result of traders' perceptions of volatility risk. State-of-the-art statistical methods will be used to produce up-dates of the probability of extreme volatility and/or extreme risk aversion, as new market data becomes available each trading day.Read moreRead less
International Trade Policy and the Dynamics of Open Economies. The project is concerned with the relationship between an open economy's international trading conditions and the allocation of resources within the economy, particularly over time (dynamic effects). The trading conditions reflect international markets and governments' trade policies. The dynamic effects upon the economy include the rate of growth, saving and inter-generation welfare. The models developed to study these relationship ....International Trade Policy and the Dynamics of Open Economies. The project is concerned with the relationship between an open economy's international trading conditions and the allocation of resources within the economy, particularly over time (dynamic effects). The trading conditions reflect international markets and governments' trade policies. The dynamic effects upon the economy include the rate of growth, saving and inter-generation welfare. The models developed to study these relationships will link international markets with domestic and future markets in a unified and consistent manner. The outcomes include a better theoretical understanding of these relationships and empirical inter-temporal models for the Australian economy that permit measurement of these dynamic effects.Read moreRead less
Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible futu ....Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian state space models. The production of accurate forecasts is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in economics, business and finance, where data often assume strictly positive, integer or binary values, or are characterized by many extreme values far from the average. This project will produce new, state-of-the-art statistical methods for generating accurate estimates of the probabilities attached to different possible future values of such variables. Although far-ranging in scope, the techniques advocated will have particular impact in the financial sphere, where the concept of future risk is inextricably linked to the probability of occurrence of extreme values and, hence, to the future probability distribution of the financial variable. Read moreRead less
New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the ....New estimation and testing issues in nonlinear time series econometrics. The outcomes of this project will not only complement but also enhance the existing strengths of Australian researchers in the field of econometrics. The outcomes are also expected to help stabilise the national financial market for more accurate forecasts. It is also expected that the outcomes will provide novel models to respond to climate change and variability and to provide accurate warming estimates for improving the policy making process.Read moreRead less