Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100967
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding the effects of sovereign default risk on economic fluctuations in open economies. The recent financial crisis has shown that the possibility of sovereign default is no longer an exclusive feature of developing countries. This project incorporates default risk into structural modeling of how foreign disturbances affect the domestic economy. Our results will aid in developing policy responses to adverse macroeconomic events.