Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
Computational methods for solving modern asset pricing models. This project aims to solve a broad range of asset pricing models. Movements in asset prices affect private investors, public sector finances, wealth distribution and business activity levels. Economists have tried to build better models of asset prices, moving away from hyper-rationality and towards realistic features including heterogeneity, habit persistence and bounded rationality. These models’ additional complexity makes them di ....Computational methods for solving modern asset pricing models. This project aims to solve a broad range of asset pricing models. Movements in asset prices affect private investors, public sector finances, wealth distribution and business activity levels. Economists have tried to build better models of asset prices, moving away from hyper-rationality and towards realistic features including heterogeneity, habit persistence and bounded rationality. These models’ additional complexity makes them difficult to solve or to apply to real world problems. The project will use modern hardware and computational tools, insights from economics literature and numerical analysis to provide a set of solution methods for such asset pricing models. This is expected to improve policy analysis and decision making under uncertainty.Read moreRead less
A new approach to stability analysis for economic systems. This project will provide a new methodology for analysing stability in economic systems. By enhancing our understanding of stability and instability in markets for assets, credit, commodities and natural resources, this project will help economists forecast likely outcomes and improve the formulation of related economic policy.
Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by ....Securitised Real Estate and Private Dwellings: International and Domestic Linkages and Implications for the Macroeconomy. Cycles in the housing market and its interaction with other economic and financial market variables may have enormous effects on the Australian economy. Despite this there is little research on the interactions between housing and the macroeconomy. This project examines these issues. The implications of the research extend to three broad areas. The first is monetary policy by understanding housing prices, inflation and interest rates linkages. Second, constructing formal models including housing may provide a means of testing the implications of policies such as the first home owner grant or reductions in housing specific taxes. Finally, financial markets may benefit by understanding of the role of property in a diversified portfolio.Read moreRead less
Commodity cycles. The implications of resource demand by emerging markets are issues policy makers need to understand. This project address these by focusing on currency, equity and commodity linkages, the financial market and macroeconomic effects of currency collapse, and the role of emerging markets in mitigating/amplifying economic shock transmission.
Business Profitability and Long Term Industrial Change in Twentieth-Century Australia. This project will establish Australia as a pioneer in longitudinal research into business profitability in terms of assembling new data and its use to analyse the relationship of profitability with capital formation and structural change in the economy. It will extend our knowledge of long-term returns to equity investment, a category of savings and pension funding now common to most Australians, and contribut ....Business Profitability and Long Term Industrial Change in Twentieth-Century Australia. This project will establish Australia as a pioneer in longitudinal research into business profitability in terms of assembling new data and its use to analyse the relationship of profitability with capital formation and structural change in the economy. It will extend our knowledge of long-term returns to equity investment, a category of savings and pension funding now common to most Australians, and contribute to our understanding of Australia's comparative business performance in light of current debates regarding the alleged limited global competitiveness and corporate governance shortcomings of leading Australian corporations.Read moreRead less
An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (an ....An economic analysis of local content requirements in radio broadcasting: a model and an empirical investigation of the Australian experience. How much local music should radio stations be required to play? Twenty per cent? Thirty per cent? As much or as little as they wish? Who benefits from such schemes? Local musicians? International record companies? Who is hurt? Radio stations? The listening public? By better understanding the effects of local content quotas on radio broadcasters (and the ways in which they lead to those effects) and by being aware of the actual consequences of the Australian scheme (and, potentially, those of other countries) we can better answer these sorts of questions. Gaining such understanding is the goal of this research. Read moreRead less
Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract ....Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract the effects of heightened uncertainty and financial disruptions. The results of this project are expected to put Australia at the frontier of the international scientific research on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and financial frictions.Read moreRead less
Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset ....Forecasting Risk Thresholds for Portfolio Management and Regulation. The project will develop new models and methods for dynamic risk modelling, assessment of portfolio risk, and forecasting of portfolio risk thresholds. These novel methods will have extensive applications across investment portfolios for banks and financial institutions globally. The techniques will feature a dynamic updating of risk estimates, and more accurate forecasting of portfolio risk, the correlations of portfolio asset classes, and Value at Risk (VaR) thresholds. The innovative methods and models will permit both financial institutions and regulatory authorities to model VaR thresholds more accurately, and enable investment managers to regulate and benchmark their portfolios more effectively against international best practice.
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New Insights on Modelling Time Trends with Panel Data: Theory and Practice. This project aims to tackle important challenges in time trend modelling by taking advantage of panel data structures. This project expects to propose flexible models in time trend modelling to retrieve reliable inference. The expected outcomes include innovative econometric models and methods that have a wide range of applications, and are particularly suited for empirical problems within large and complex systems. This ....New Insights on Modelling Time Trends with Panel Data: Theory and Practice. This project aims to tackle important challenges in time trend modelling by taking advantage of panel data structures. This project expects to propose flexible models in time trend modelling to retrieve reliable inference. The expected outcomes include innovative econometric models and methods that have a wide range of applications, and are particularly suited for empirical problems within large and complex systems. This will provide significant benefits to all fields in which data displays any form of trending behaviour. The proposed model is used to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change and global housing market contagion, which provide strong evidence-based insights to the environmental and economic policies in Australia.Read moreRead less