Financial crises, volatility and sovereign ratings: Do ratings really matter when they are needed most? The stability of Australian financial markets during the Asian financial crisis is a major economic success story. Subsequently, an important policy objective has been in enhancing the capacity of the financial infrastructure in regional financial markets to reduce their exposure to such crises. Recent financial market turmoil dramatically underscores the need to better understand the full myr ....Financial crises, volatility and sovereign ratings: Do ratings really matter when they are needed most? The stability of Australian financial markets during the Asian financial crisis is a major economic success story. Subsequently, an important policy objective has been in enhancing the capacity of the financial infrastructure in regional financial markets to reduce their exposure to such crises. Recent financial market turmoil dramatically underscores the need to better understand the full myriad of factors that feed into this challenging concern. One critical area of debate is whether or not rating agencies play a calming role. This project will deliver insights that aid development of the financial infrastructure to cope better with such crises and retain investor confidence.Read moreRead less
Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian ....Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian economy, corporations, and investors. In addition, the project will enhance investment performance and risk management practice of financial institutions, improving the overall safety of our financial system. It will also foster research culture and increase research capacity of Australian financial institutions.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100967
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding the effects of sovereign default risk on economic fluctuations in open economies. The recent financial crisis has shown that the possibility of sovereign default is no longer an exclusive feature of developing countries. This project incorporates default risk into structural modeling of how foreign disturbances affect the domestic economy. Our results will aid in developing policy responses to adverse macroeconomic events.
Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhea ....Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhealthy agnosticism regarding many of these relationships. This research will bring more appropriate statistical techniques to bear upon the problem, and if successful will restore confidence in decision-making processes and the relevance and applicability of macroeconomic models. Read moreRead less
Investing over the Life Cycle. This project will investigate efficiency questions raised by the private and public management of assets within defined contribution pension plans. Because investment risk in such plans falls on the contributing household, they need to be managed with care. The first phase of the project will examine optimal equity investments on behalf of contributing households. The second phase will consider the scope and limits of market-timing endeavours involving switches bet ....Investing over the Life Cycle. This project will investigate efficiency questions raised by the private and public management of assets within defined contribution pension plans. Because investment risk in such plans falls on the contributing household, they need to be managed with care. The first phase of the project will examine optimal equity investments on behalf of contributing households. The second phase will consider the scope and limits of market-timing endeavours involving switches between broad asset classes. The third phase will consider optimal currency hedging. The final phase will consider the optimal taxation of pension fund assets at different points in the household's life cycle.Read moreRead less
Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standar ....Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standard advice on managing currency risks to retirement incomes. Uninsured disruptions to electricity supply have been an issue (eg in California), and demonstrate a need for innovative financial instruments that cushion and spread the costs.Read moreRead less
Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the ....Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the case of retirees. Our project will focus on the forecasting and management of economy-wide risks, as distinct from the equity risks or credit risks attached to investments in particular companies.Read moreRead less