Solving the problems of estimating extinction rates in recent and geological time. Human activity is causing species to go extinct at rates not seen for at least 65 million years: this is the sixth mass extinction event in the history of the Earth. This project will use state-of-the-art modelling tools applied to Australian and global species and land-use change data to quantify humanity's influence on recent and future extinctions.
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
The Eocene high latitude Australasian 'tropics' in a changing climate: resolving conflicting evidence. Between 45 to 30 million years ago, high latitude subtropical floras in Australia and New Zealand experienced significant climate change, leading to the evolution of present day vegetation. Understanding the effects of this climate change on extinction and speciation will produce more accurate predictions about modern floras when faced with climate change.
Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Generalised methods for testing extinction dynamics across geological, near and modern time scales. The record of extinctions over deep time is patchy and incomplete, yet we must use it to determine how major changes in past environments have shaped life on Earth today. The project will develop cutting-edge mathematical tools to determine the patterns of extinctions and speciation over geological time to help predict our uncertain environmental future.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Identifying the genes and population histories that drive rapid adaptive change and speciation. This project will uncover the genetic variation and demographic histories that allow rapid adaptation and speciation in natural populations. It will leverage the powerful framework provided by Indo-Australian sea snakes, and new gene sequencing technologies, to reconstruct the evolutionary histories of genes, populations and species. Using this data, it will address inter-related key questions that ar ....Identifying the genes and population histories that drive rapid adaptive change and speciation. This project will uncover the genetic variation and demographic histories that allow rapid adaptation and speciation in natural populations. It will leverage the powerful framework provided by Indo-Australian sea snakes, and new gene sequencing technologies, to reconstruct the evolutionary histories of genes, populations and species. Using this data, it will address inter-related key questions that are critical to effective biodiversity conservation but have rarely been evaluated in the same taxon. It will address what genetic changes are involved in adaptive shifts and speciation, whether these originate de novo or from pre-existing variation and how gene flow and changes in population size promote or constrain adaptation and speciation.Read moreRead less
Faunal responses to environmental change and isolation on an Australian land-bridge island. Establishing how faunas responded to past isolation and environmental changes offers great potential for predicting long-term impacts of habitat fragmentation. By combining novel methods we will track extinction rates, diet and body-size shifts on Kangaroo Island, the only known land-bridge island with a fossil record spanning the past 100,000 years.
Illuminating the evolutionary history of Australia’s most iconic animals. This project aims to pinpoint the nature and timing of key steps in macropod history and to test how these link with major climatic and biotic changes. Macropods (kangaroos and relatives) are widely considered the marsupial equivalents to hoofed mammals on other continents, but we have a weaker understanding of how their evolution was shaped by environmental change. This project will combine palaeontology, anatomy and gene ....Illuminating the evolutionary history of Australia’s most iconic animals. This project aims to pinpoint the nature and timing of key steps in macropod history and to test how these link with major climatic and biotic changes. Macropods (kangaroos and relatives) are widely considered the marsupial equivalents to hoofed mammals on other continents, but we have a weaker understanding of how their evolution was shaped by environmental change. This project will combine palaeontology, anatomy and genetics to address questions such as how and why ancestral macropods descended from the trees and evolved bipedal hopping, and the upper size limits of the kangaroo “body plan”. This should improve our understanding of the long-term effects of climate change on marsupials, and provide a test of key placental-based evolutionary models.Read moreRead less