Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity. Climate change poses a dire threat to Australia's biodiversity and natural resources due to its all-encompassing reach and the speed at which human-driven changes are taking place in already heavily modified systems. The proposed research, on modelling the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic threats, will provide new knowledge and innovative solutions for protecting unique ecosystems fa ....Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity. Climate change poses a dire threat to Australia's biodiversity and natural resources due to its all-encompassing reach and the speed at which human-driven changes are taking place in already heavily modified systems. The proposed research, on modelling the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic threats, will provide new knowledge and innovative solutions for protecting unique ecosystems facing severe environmental challenges this century. The validation of these new methods, which aim to capture ecological responses to global change, will represent a major and timely addition to the national research capability on climate change adaptation, and add to Australia's reputation as a global leader in the field of ecology.Read moreRead less
Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing mechanisms of range contraction to avert species extinctions. This project aims to integrate biotic information from fossils and ancient DNA of vertebrates into computational models to establish ecological processes that drive the structure and dynamics of geographical ranges and regulate the severity of species extinction rates from global change. This approach is likely to improve theory on dynamic species borders and expected outcomes include providing a framework for better al ....Reconstructing mechanisms of range contraction to avert species extinctions. This project aims to integrate biotic information from fossils and ancient DNA of vertebrates into computational models to establish ecological processes that drive the structure and dynamics of geographical ranges and regulate the severity of species extinction rates from global change. This approach is likely to improve theory on dynamic species borders and expected outcomes include providing a framework for better allocating resources for endangered species in Australia and beyond. This will have significant benefits, such as providing the first mechanistic explanations for the principal drivers of mega-fauna extinctions during the late Pleistocene and Holocene.Read moreRead less
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200100005
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$36,000,000.00
Summary
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management ....Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future. This program aims to deliver unprecedented research capability for securing Antarctic environments in the face of uncertain change.
By integrating a highly skilled team with new approaches and breakthrough technologies, the program anticipates discovery science, enhanced environmental forecasting and optimised decision-making to advance Australia’s position as an influential Antarctic nation.
Expected outcomes include better environmental management, unparalleled strategic decision-support for an effective Antarctic Treaty, and new minds to address Antarctica’s new challenges.
Anticipated benefits are the means to transform environmental forecasting and management in the Antarctic, for Australia, and to the advantage of global security.Read moreRead less