Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Metal injection moulding of aluminium. The aim of this project is to develop a metal injection moulding (MIM) system for aluminium by employing point defect engineering to enhance the solid state sintering of aluminium. This study will also incorporate an econometric analysis of the potential for specific aluminium MIM parts. Using this novel, multidisciplinary approach, the market definition and the technology development will occur concurrently. The outcome will be an aluminium MIM system and ....Metal injection moulding of aluminium. The aim of this project is to develop a metal injection moulding (MIM) system for aluminium by employing point defect engineering to enhance the solid state sintering of aluminium. This study will also incorporate an econometric analysis of the potential for specific aluminium MIM parts. Using this novel, multidisciplinary approach, the market definition and the technology development will occur concurrently. The outcome will be an aluminium MIM system and a new business opportunity for a Queensland manufacturing company in a market that is growing at 10-25% per year and is expected to exceed $US1 billion in 2003.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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Predicting the value and use of urban land. This project aims to develop a comprehensive, robust and user-friendly set of modelling tools to predict land values more accurately. Accurate predictions of land values reduce state government revenue risks and improve resource management. The expected outcome of this project is the development of modelling tools which, can be used to study land use allocation, infrastructure delivery and government taxation revenue. This should provide significant be ....Predicting the value and use of urban land. This project aims to develop a comprehensive, robust and user-friendly set of modelling tools to predict land values more accurately. Accurate predictions of land values reduce state government revenue risks and improve resource management. The expected outcome of this project is the development of modelling tools which, can be used to study land use allocation, infrastructure delivery and government taxation revenue. This should provide significant benefits such as the development of new econometric theory, advanced computational methods and evidence-based guidelines for policymakers.Read moreRead less
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an e ....Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future. The findings of the project will be available before the new Kyoto negotiation round commences.Read moreRead less
Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: i ....Computing probabilities of theories where these probabilities vary over time with applications in macroeconomics. This project will present a method to produce empirically based policy advice that accounts for the changing economic environment and that allows for a range of assumptions about how the economy works. The research and training will place Australia at the forefront of empirical macroeconomic research and strengthen international research networks. Policy making will be improved as: it will use information that is more robust to false assumptions; it will quickly incorporate new information; and we will understand better why certain policies did or did not work at different times in the past. The research will impact upon other sciences such as physics and engineering that use the same underlying tools far more than do economists.Read moreRead less