Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting ....Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting from better models in climatology, demography, economics, environment, finance, machine learning and neural networks.Read moreRead less
Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Applications. This project proposes to tackle several very important and difficult issues in modelling general climatological, economic and financial panel data that involve possible trending components. This project seeks to establish some general asymptotic theory for model estimation and specification technologies that are suited to such general nonlinear panel data that may be stochastically non-stationary and endogenous. The resea ....Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Applications. This project proposes to tackle several very important and difficult issues in modelling general climatological, economic and financial panel data that involve possible trending components. This project seeks to establish some general asymptotic theory for model estimation and specification technologies that are suited to such general nonlinear panel data that may be stochastically non-stationary and endogenous. The research outcomes of this project are expected to be applicable in evaluating and improving empirical model building and forecasting from better models in climatology, economics and finance with possible endogeneity and nonlinearity and non-stationarity.Read moreRead less
Distributional Consequences of Mass-Market Higher Education in Business. Increased access to tertiary education has not been evaluated for its effects on the full spectrum of individuals served by the tertiary sector. Using longitudinal data on entire student populations at university business faculties, this project will provide the first Australian evidence on the trade-offs amongst the educational success of students with different levels of preparation that occur when those with poorer prep ....Distributional Consequences of Mass-Market Higher Education in Business. Increased access to tertiary education has not been evaluated for its effects on the full spectrum of individuals served by the tertiary sector. Using longitudinal data on entire student populations at university business faculties, this project will provide the first Australian evidence on the trade-offs amongst the educational success of students with different levels of preparation that occur when those with poorer preparation are added to classrooms. Short-term performance and medium-term attrition, a recent educational policy focus, will be evaluated. Theoretically grounded recommendations will result for undergraduate program design to suit a student population with varying levels of university preparation.Read moreRead less
An econometric analysis of the impact of education on health in developing countries. This project will provide empirical knowledge on whether education affects health over the life course in developing countries. This research will aid the design of more cost effective strategies aiming to reduce poverty and promote economic development, which will ultimately lead to a more prosperous and safe region and world.
Effects of Maternal Work, Day Care Use and Other Investments in Children on Child Cognitive Outcomes. Later life outcomes due to investments by individuals and/or society in children is crucial to many countries, including Australia. Appropriate policy responses require reliable and valid estimates of the likely effects of individual investments and policy interventions. Despite many research reports on this topic, almost all do not control for selection bias (eg, high achieving mothers tend to ....Effects of Maternal Work, Day Care Use and Other Investments in Children on Child Cognitive Outcomes. Later life outcomes due to investments by individuals and/or society in children is crucial to many countries, including Australia. Appropriate policy responses require reliable and valid estimates of the likely effects of individual investments and policy interventions. Despite many research reports on this topic, almost all do not control for selection bias (eg, high achieving mothers tend to put children in day care), which is a feature of our work. Thus, our empirical results will have major policy implications, and will suggest ways to obtain similar results for Australian environments. Read moreRead less
Efficient pooling of cross-section and time series data using Bayesian machine learning with two econometric applications. In this project, we adapt a Bayesian modelling strategy, namely the minimum message length principle, to the problem of efficient partitioning of economic units, such as firms or countries, into groups whose behavioural patterns are similar within each group but distinct across groups. This methodology can incorporate the requirements of economic theory. The resulting softwa ....Efficient pooling of cross-section and time series data using Bayesian machine learning with two econometric applications. In this project, we adapt a Bayesian modelling strategy, namely the minimum message length principle, to the problem of efficient partitioning of economic units, such as firms or countries, into groups whose behavioural patterns are similar within each group but distinct across groups. This methodology can incorporate the requirements of economic theory. The resulting software will be developed for the Web. We consider two specific applications, namely modelling gasoline demand in OECD countries, and finding the foreign factor with the most predictive power for the growth rate of the Australian economy. The second application is of considerable national interest.Read moreRead less
Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further a ....Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further aim is to show how statistical modelling using spanning-tree methods can resolve the conflict that arises for price indexes constructed on panel data sets between temporal and spatial consistency.Read moreRead less
The econometrics of gravity models of trade: a re-assessment. This research will lead a much greater understanding of the empirical determinants of trade flows between countries. This project will apply cutting-edge data econometric techniques to the popular Gravity model of international trade flows. These more appropriate techniques will shed more light on some previous puzzling findings, such that regional trade agreements had little, or no, affect on trade.
Challenging econometric issues in nonlinear high-dimensional spatio-temporal prediction: theory and applications. This project will develop cutting-edge methodologies to break through challenging issues in nonlinear spatio-temporal econometric prediction. It will yield a new generation of prediction tools that enpower practitioners in Australia to produce more accurate forecasts, with more informed countermeasures to viarious economic and enviromental risks.
Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this pr ....Consistent Space-Time Comparisons of Real Income. The project will result in internationally comparable macroeconomic data, spanning all years since 1950 and covering in excess of 120 countries. The Australian government, private sector and academic researchers will find from this project a wealth of economic information on Australia, its geographical neighbours and trading partners which can be used in assessing Australia's economic performance and role in a global context. Results from this project will provide international organisations, multinationals and researchers with a much improved data set, to those currently available, thus enhancing the reputation of the research team, the University of Queensland and Australia. Read moreRead less