Exploring Behavioural Responses of Motorists to Exposure-Based Charging Mechanisms. Our continued reliance on cars is estimated to cost the Australian economy around $50 billion per year in accidents, congestion and air pollution. This project delivers a new approach to reduce these externalities, in which charges are levied on drivers based on their accident history, the kilometres driven and the circumstances under which these kilometres are driven. In addition to the safety and congestion ben ....Exploring Behavioural Responses of Motorists to Exposure-Based Charging Mechanisms. Our continued reliance on cars is estimated to cost the Australian economy around $50 billion per year in accidents, congestion and air pollution. This project delivers a new approach to reduce these externalities, in which charges are levied on drivers based on their accident history, the kilometres driven and the circumstances under which these kilometres are driven. In addition to the safety and congestion benefits, the outcomes of the project will be of importance to those charged with raising revenue to support infrastructure maintenance and development, and the insurance industry as a basis for reducing risks in driving and making premiums more equitable.Read moreRead less
The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater unde ....The long term causal effects of Vietnam War era conscription on economic and social outcomes for Australian conscripts. The project will inform veterans' compensation, military and retirement income policies. A perennial policy issue is how best to re-integrate veterans into society. Our preliminary analysis suggests very different effects of conscription in Australia to the USA, particularly on employment. This may reflect different systems of benefits, which we will investigate. A greater understanding of the effects of conscription will also inform policy makers of the full cost to society of military service and participation in conflict. Since veterans are entitled to retirement pensions earlier than non-veterans, we also investigate the effects of benefit eligibility on employment outcomes amongst older men.Read moreRead less
The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables cons ....The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables consumed, especially among low-income households. The project will employ modelling techniques that are novel to this product group and that will provide valuable insights to the constraints and opportunities for increasing fruits and vegetables intake, as well as benchmarks for future research.Read moreRead less
Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian ....Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian economy, corporations, and investors. In addition, the project will enhance investment performance and risk management practice of financial institutions, improving the overall safety of our financial system. It will also foster research culture and increase research capacity of Australian financial institutions.Read moreRead less
The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy w ....The Economic Measurement of Property Markets: Prices, Bubbles, Economic Growth and Productivity. In collaboration with property fund manager and investor CorVal, and with the participation of the industry leader in benchmarking, property research and metrics, IPD Australia and New Zealand, this project aims to examine the economic measurement of property markets. Mathematical and statistical models aim to be developed for exploiting a large quantity of data made available at aggregate (economy wide) and disaggregate (local area government) levels. The findings aim to contribute to an improved understanding of property price bubbles, concepts of market disequilibrium, and the role of the property market as a source of economic growth and productivity.Read moreRead less
Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further a ....Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further aim is to show how statistical modelling using spanning-tree methods can resolve the conflict that arises for price indexes constructed on panel data sets between temporal and spatial consistency.Read moreRead less
Can Electronic Point-of-Sale (POS) Data Improve the Australian Consumer Price Index? This project will investigate how new sources of data can be used to improve the accuracy of price indexes that are used in policy formation, such as the consumer price index. The adoption of bar-code labelling for products has provided statistical agencies with an information-rich source of 'scanner data' on prices and quantities of purchased goods. In collaboration with the Australian Bureau of Statistics, thi ....Can Electronic Point-of-Sale (POS) Data Improve the Australian Consumer Price Index? This project will investigate how new sources of data can be used to improve the accuracy of price indexes that are used in policy formation, such as the consumer price index. The adoption of bar-code labelling for products has provided statistical agencies with an information-rich source of 'scanner data' on prices and quantities of purchased goods. In collaboration with the Australian Bureau of Statistics, this project will develop mathematical and statistical methods for exploiting this new data source. The findings will contribute to the improvement of price indexes, and subsequently the many government policies that depend on these indexes.Read moreRead less
Scanner Data in the Consumer Price Index: How to expand and improve their use. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used in a variety of policy contexts, such as setting interest rates and determining the level of welfare payments, as well as by private industry for determining wages. The CPI is aggregate measure of price changes. It is typically constructed using survey data, which is a small sample of all the goods purchased. Electronic recording of sales, using scanned product bar codes, provide ....Scanner Data in the Consumer Price Index: How to expand and improve their use. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used in a variety of policy contexts, such as setting interest rates and determining the level of welfare payments, as well as by private industry for determining wages. The CPI is aggregate measure of price changes. It is typically constructed using survey data, which is a small sample of all the goods purchased. Electronic recording of sales, using scanned product bar codes, provides a huge amount of price and quantity information that potentially can be used to construct an improved CPI, and hence improved policies. The project includes the collaboration of the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bureau of Statistics (The Netherlands).Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less