Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This proj ....Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This project is expected to improve understanding of the risks people impose on others as individuals and as a society.Read moreRead less
A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily ....A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily implementable theory of ‘if’s. The project expects to provide such a theory, based on probability, improving on approaches from philosophy and linguistics, and benefitting both these fields. It also promises significant benefits for artificial intelligence/machine learning.
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Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie th ....Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie them.
This project will determine whether, and when, time-biased preferences lead to sub-optimal outcomes, and lay the groundwork for determining which strategies mitigate these biases, leading to better decisions and outcomes.Read moreRead less
Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to unce ....Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to uncertain evidence. The project has potential to influence the relevant policy and will result in improved legal reasoning and risk reduction in legal decision making.Read moreRead less