Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This proj ....Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This project is expected to improve understanding of the risks people impose on others as individuals and as a society.Read moreRead less
Decision theory in crisis. Decision theory's goals are to characterise and to guide rational decision-making—from the minor decisions of daily life, to the major decisions of industry and government— which, in its current state, it is unfit to do. This project will refine decision theory so that it may better achieve these goals.
A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily ....A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily implementable theory of ‘if’s. The project expects to provide such a theory, based on probability, improving on approaches from philosophy and linguistics, and benefitting both these fields. It also promises significant benefits for artificial intelligence/machine learning.
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Epistemically feasible choice: implications for sustainable risk management. The aim of this project is to examine procedural decision principles that will yield better choices in circumstances where, because of epistemic limitations, standard decision theory provides an inadequate guide. Individuals and policy-makers must make decisions even though they cannot be fully aware of all of the relevant possibilities or fully understand consequences they have not yet experienced. Examples include ind ....Epistemically feasible choice: implications for sustainable risk management. The aim of this project is to examine procedural decision principles that will yield better choices in circumstances where, because of epistemic limitations, standard decision theory provides an inadequate guide. Individuals and policy-makers must make decisions even though they cannot be fully aware of all of the relevant possibilities or fully understand consequences they have not yet experienced. Examples include individual decisions about marriage and childbearing, public policy decisions about complex environmental problems and decisions on funding scientific research. The expected outcome of the project will be a formal model of decision theory incorporating principles of resilience, sustainability and transformative experience.Read moreRead less
Defence and Security Risk Assessment using Agent Based Distillations. Today's society continues to be occupied with the idea of risk. The recent events of September 11th, the Bali bombing, SARS, the bush fires in Canberra, and the Tsunami are examples of human-made and natural disasters. These events had dramatic consequences on the social, economic, and political environment and numerous industries. This project offers an innovative methodological paradigm for assessing risk through the transfe ....Defence and Security Risk Assessment using Agent Based Distillations. Today's society continues to be occupied with the idea of risk. The recent events of September 11th, the Bali bombing, SARS, the bush fires in Canberra, and the Tsunami are examples of human-made and natural disasters. These events had dramatic consequences on the social, economic, and political environment and numerous industries. This project offers an innovative methodological paradigm for assessing risk through the transfer of technologies drawn from defence simulations to the safety and security areas. The success of this project will mark a paradigm shift in the area of risk assessment and management.Read moreRead less
Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie th ....Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie them.
This project will determine whether, and when, time-biased preferences lead to sub-optimal outcomes, and lay the groundwork for determining which strategies mitigate these biases, leading to better decisions and outcomes.Read moreRead less
Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to unce ....Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to uncertain evidence. The project has potential to influence the relevant policy and will result in improved legal reasoning and risk reduction in legal decision making.Read moreRead less
Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the ....Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the effects of both environmental and social uncertainty in the pursuit of multiple goals. Intended benefits include the development of computational models that can simulate human decision making in complex environments, analyse new concepts of operation, redesign work roles, and identify factors that reduce risk in decision-making.Read moreRead less