Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road au ....Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road authorities and driver training providers as to effective training strategies to improve young driver training, and ultimately improve road safety with this vulnerable population.Read moreRead less
Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This proj ....Ethics and risk. This project aims to develop a theory of risk. From the extreme to the everyday, from warfare to the drive to work, the modern world is unimaginable without mutual imposition of risk. Philosophers must explain how risks can be justified, or risk irrelevance. This project will use the tools of ethics (the study of right and wrong action) and decision theory (the study of rational decision-making under uncertainty) to develop a comprehensive theory of the ethics of risk. This project is expected to improve understanding of the risks people impose on others as individuals and as a society.Read moreRead less
Decision theory in crisis. Decision theory's goals are to characterise and to guide rational decision-making—from the minor decisions of daily life, to the major decisions of industry and government— which, in its current state, it is unfit to do. This project will refine decision theory so that it may better achieve these goals.
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily ....A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily implementable theory of ‘if’s. The project expects to provide such a theory, based on probability, improving on approaches from philosophy and linguistics, and benefitting both these fields. It also promises significant benefits for artificial intelligence/machine learning.
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Cloudiness over the Southern Ocean: reducing a key knowledge gap and source of climate model uncertainty. Southern Ocean clouds are key ingredients of the global climate system and yet are only poorly understood and poorly represented in climate models. Through the use of advanced observational analysis techniques this research will provide a deep understanding of key Southern Ocean cloud regimes and improve their representation in models.
WAKE FLOWS WITH UPSTREAM TURBULENCE IN MARINE, ATMOSPHERIC AND BUILT ENVIRONMENTS. Through improved understanding of turbulent wakes the project will have applications across aeronautics and hydrodynamics, leading to more efficient engineering designs to reduce flow drag. In marine environments our findings will improve coastal ocean models and the prediction of pollutant dispersal, nutrient fluxes and sediment transport, and contribute to the management of biological productivity (NRP 1.5). In ....WAKE FLOWS WITH UPSTREAM TURBULENCE IN MARINE, ATMOSPHERIC AND BUILT ENVIRONMENTS. Through improved understanding of turbulent wakes the project will have applications across aeronautics and hydrodynamics, leading to more efficient engineering designs to reduce flow drag. In marine environments our findings will improve coastal ocean models and the prediction of pollutant dispersal, nutrient fluxes and sediment transport, and contribute to the management of biological productivity (NRP 1.5). In the atmospheric boundary layer, the results will assist planners to improve wind environments near large buildings or clusters of buildings, benefiting the safety of aircraft at takeoff and landing. The project will develop collaboration and help maintain the strength of Australian research in environmental flows.Read moreRead less
Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to unce ....Formal approaches to legal reasoning. This project aims to use formal epistemology to improve understanding of existing legal practices and to propose recommendations for improving the consistency and accuracy of legal proceedings. Since judges and juries rarely know all the relevant facts, they must make the best decision possible in the face of uncertainty. Formal epistemology employs probabilistic reasoning to advance understanding of how to form beliefs and make decisions in response to uncertain evidence. The project has potential to influence the relevant policy and will result in improved legal reasoning and risk reduction in legal decision making.Read moreRead less
Fake News and Post-Truth Impacts: Responses to Conflictive Uncertainty. Attributions of fake news and post-truth are symptoms of uncertainty arising from conflicting information. Little is known about human responses to conflictive uncertainty other than that people find it aversive. This project aims to identify the determinants of human attitudes towards conflictive uncertainty. The aims will be achieved via the development of measures of attitudes toward conflictive uncertainty, and studies i ....Fake News and Post-Truth Impacts: Responses to Conflictive Uncertainty. Attributions of fake news and post-truth are symptoms of uncertainty arising from conflicting information. Little is known about human responses to conflictive uncertainty other than that people find it aversive. This project aims to identify the determinants of human attitudes towards conflictive uncertainty. The aims will be achieved via the development of measures of attitudes toward conflictive uncertainty, and studies identifying the major influences thereof. Expected outcomes include advances in knowledge of how conflictive uncertainty attitudes relate to risk orientations, personality, and situational factors. Anticipated benefits include improved strategies for decision makers and communicators faced with conflictive uncertainty.Read moreRead less
Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less