Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the ....Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the effects of both environmental and social uncertainty in the pursuit of multiple goals. Intended benefits include the development of computational models that can simulate human decision making in complex environments, analyse new concepts of operation, redesign work roles, and identify factors that reduce risk in decision-making.Read moreRead less
Misinformation: Evidence evaluation in an alternate fact reality . This project aims to understand why people believe misinformation. Misinformation causes some people to adopt implausible beliefs. These beliefs pose a significant challenge for society because they can result in behaviours that negatively impact personal and public safety. By combining surveys, qualitative analysis, and systematic experimentation, this project will identify differences in evidence evaluation and persuasiveness b ....Misinformation: Evidence evaluation in an alternate fact reality . This project aims to understand why people believe misinformation. Misinformation causes some people to adopt implausible beliefs. These beliefs pose a significant challenge for society because they can result in behaviours that negatively impact personal and public safety. By combining surveys, qualitative analysis, and systematic experimentation, this project will identify differences in evidence evaluation and persuasiveness between people who believe misinformation and those who do not. It is anticipated that our novel approach will build knowledge about misinformation effects and will reduce associated harms by expanding our understanding of how to communicate effectively with people who are persuaded by misinformation.Read moreRead less
Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road au ....Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road authorities and driver training providers as to effective training strategies to improve young driver training, and ultimately improve road safety with this vulnerable population.Read moreRead less
The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and childre ....The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and children's food-related beliefs and behaviours. Three different forms of front-of-pack labelling systems and three types of health claims will be tested in varying combinations to identify the effects on different consumer segments, especially those of lower socioeconomic status. This approach aims to show how different forms of nutrition information are processed and traded-off during decision making.Read moreRead less
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160101137
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$373,536.00
Summary
The whole is greater than its parts: Improving rail safety through teamwork. This project seeks to develop a train driving risk model that includes human factors, to enable rail organisations to better identify and mitigate safety risks. Train driving is a cognitively demanding task in which errors can quickly lead to catastrophic consequences. Signals passed at danger (SPADs) occur when a train goes past a red light. Despite significant investment in better signalling and communications infrast ....The whole is greater than its parts: Improving rail safety through teamwork. This project seeks to develop a train driving risk model that includes human factors, to enable rail organisations to better identify and mitigate safety risks. Train driving is a cognitively demanding task in which errors can quickly lead to catastrophic consequences. Signals passed at danger (SPADs) occur when a train goes past a red light. Despite significant investment in better signalling and communications infrastructure, SPAD rates remain unacceptably high and are projected to rise. SPAD risk is currently managed with a retrospective approach that fails to consider non-technical human factors such as time pressure, workload and team communications. By including non-technical dimensions, this project seeks to develop a comprehensive model to explain and prevent SPADs.Read moreRead less
Gaining control of the future: The cognitive development of foresight. Because humans can anticipate their limitations, they can act in the present to shape their future for the better.
This project aims to chart four key developmental processes by which children gain this control over their future
outcomes. It will use novel experimental paradigms to map children’s growing ability to compensate for their limits
with strategic planning, and to improve their future capacities by acquiring new kno ....Gaining control of the future: The cognitive development of foresight. Because humans can anticipate their limitations, they can act in the present to shape their future for the better.
This project aims to chart four key developmental processes by which children gain this control over their future
outcomes. It will use novel experimental paradigms to map children’s growing ability to compensate for their limits
with strategic planning, and to improve their future capacities by acquiring new knowledge and innovating
technical solutions. The cognitive underpinnings of these critical behaviours are still poorly understood. This
project will therefore provide the essential empirical foundation for fostering the development of wiser, more
skilled, and more innovative young people.Read moreRead less