Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the ....Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the effects of both environmental and social uncertainty in the pursuit of multiple goals. Intended benefits include the development of computational models that can simulate human decision making in complex environments, analyse new concepts of operation, redesign work roles, and identify factors that reduce risk in decision-making.Read moreRead less
Misinformation: Evidence evaluation in an alternate fact reality . This project aims to understand why people believe misinformation. Misinformation causes some people to adopt implausible beliefs. These beliefs pose a significant challenge for society because they can result in behaviours that negatively impact personal and public safety. By combining surveys, qualitative analysis, and systematic experimentation, this project will identify differences in evidence evaluation and persuasiveness b ....Misinformation: Evidence evaluation in an alternate fact reality . This project aims to understand why people believe misinformation. Misinformation causes some people to adopt implausible beliefs. These beliefs pose a significant challenge for society because they can result in behaviours that negatively impact personal and public safety. By combining surveys, qualitative analysis, and systematic experimentation, this project will identify differences in evidence evaluation and persuasiveness between people who believe misinformation and those who do not. It is anticipated that our novel approach will build knowledge about misinformation effects and will reduce associated harms by expanding our understanding of how to communicate effectively with people who are persuaded by misinformation.Read moreRead less
Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road au ....Improving novice drivers' speed and hazard management. The aim of the study is to extend the evidence-based approach we have developed for speed management (cognitive integration speed management training) to hazard management, thereby developing cognitive integration hazard management training for young drivers. Hence, this study is specifically designed to curb the alarming trend in young driver fatalities on Australian roads. The results of the research will provide clear direction to road authorities and driver training providers as to effective training strategies to improve young driver training, and ultimately improve road safety with this vulnerable population.Read moreRead less
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140101181
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$384,183.00
Summary
How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Inn ....How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Innovatively, this model would remove the need for an explicit conflict monitoring mechanism. This project is significant because it progresses our understanding of how humans deal with conflict. The expected outcome is a comprehensive, quantitative account of sequential effects in human decision making.Read moreRead less
Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in ....Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?Read moreRead less
How strong inference has failed psychology, and an updated approach. There are so many quantitative theories of cognition that it can be difficult to see the forest for the trees. This project will contend that this is caused by suboptimal model selection. Comprehensive data sets and modern statistical techniques will be used to evaluate competing accounts in five paradigms, thinning the trees to reveal the forest.