Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the ....Goal pursuit decisions under environmental and social uncertainty. This project aims to develop an integrative computational model that explains how people prioritise the allocation of resources to different goals in the face of uncertainty. The project seeks to test a new theory through a series of experiments in which participants pursue goals by themselves in unpredictable environments, or in competition against an opponent. Expected outcomes include an integrated theory that accounts for the effects of both environmental and social uncertainty in the pursuit of multiple goals. Intended benefits include the development of computational models that can simulate human decision making in complex environments, analyse new concepts of operation, redesign work roles, and identify factors that reduce risk in decision-making.Read moreRead less
Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and childre ....The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and children's food-related beliefs and behaviours. Three different forms of front-of-pack labelling systems and three types of health claims will be tested in varying combinations to identify the effects on different consumer segments, especially those of lower socioeconomic status. This approach aims to show how different forms of nutrition information are processed and traded-off during decision making.Read moreRead less
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact ....The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact of sociocultural context. It is anticipated that this novel integrative approach will substantially expand our understanding of misinformation effects, and that this theoretical progress will result in the formulation of specific communication strategies to reduce the impact of misinformation on society.Read moreRead less
Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the ....Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the project, people will be presented with value information, and the project plans to examine how that information is retrieved from memory and then used to evaluate options and make decisions. Expected project outcomes would provide a coherent model that provides an integrated understanding of the role of memory in judgement and choice.Read moreRead less
An explainability oriented approach to manage dependent supply chain risks. This project aims to help supply chain companies model the impact on their operations by capturing the uncertainties impacting their upstream suppliers. In the current uncertain business environment, the project's outcome will benefit service-based industries to have an enhanced understanding of their operating environment and take decisions accordingly to avoid failures. This will significantly increase the productivity ....An explainability oriented approach to manage dependent supply chain risks. This project aims to help supply chain companies model the impact on their operations by capturing the uncertainties impacting their upstream suppliers. In the current uncertain business environment, the project's outcome will benefit service-based industries to have an enhanced understanding of their operating environment and take decisions accordingly to avoid failures. This will significantly increase the productivity of Australian service-based industries across different domains. The expected outcome is that it generates new knowledge by which risk managers of a focal company can conjointly consider risk identification/assessment with risk management analysis to develop explainable strategies for managing uncertainties. Read moreRead less
Towards an integrated model of reasoning and reasoning development. This project aims to identify the core cognitive processes that underlie different forms of reasoning and how they develop. The project intends to use a signal detection framework to derive detailed computational models of reasoning which can then be tested through Bayesian computational modelling as well as the first systematic investigation of developmental change in reasoning processes. Expected outcomes include a more princi ....Towards an integrated model of reasoning and reasoning development. This project aims to identify the core cognitive processes that underlie different forms of reasoning and how they develop. The project intends to use a signal detection framework to derive detailed computational models of reasoning which can then be tested through Bayesian computational modelling as well as the first systematic investigation of developmental change in reasoning processes. Expected outcomes include a more principled and comprehensive computational model of reasoning in both adults and children. The project should provide significant benefits by helping to resolve long-standing debates about how humans reason complex arguments relevant to everyday lives and guide development of more effective methods for teaching reasoning.Read moreRead less
The benefits of sociality: understanding the relationship between cooperation, cognition and fitness. Cooperation may present unique cognitive challenges. Individuals perform behaviours that provide fitness benefits to others, exposing themselves to risk. The need to monitor the behaviour of group members, recognise suitable cooperative partners, and make corresponding behavioural adjustments to maximize the benefits of cooperation, may therefore be an important driver of social evolution. The r ....The benefits of sociality: understanding the relationship between cooperation, cognition and fitness. Cooperation may present unique cognitive challenges. Individuals perform behaviours that provide fitness benefits to others, exposing themselves to risk. The need to monitor the behaviour of group members, recognise suitable cooperative partners, and make corresponding behavioural adjustments to maximize the benefits of cooperation, may therefore be an important driver of social evolution. The relevance of understanding the relationship between cognition and cooperation is in how it affects the fitness of individuals and the stability of cooperation. This project aims to unveil this relationship by conducting one of the first comprehensive studies of the selective benefits of cognitive ability in a wild, cooperative bird species.Read moreRead less
The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode in ....The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode into memory, and thus determining the building blocks from which people build simulations of the future, this project will gain valuable data that will be used to develop a detailed and precise computational model of the role of memory mechanisms and representations in imagining and planning.Read moreRead less