Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical s ....Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical spatial locations in which HIV cases are likely to emerge in the future. This project will also forecast the future geographical trends in Australia's changing HIV epidemic in order to plan for intervention strategies and prepare clinical practice appropriately.Read moreRead less
Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistica ....Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistical framework for scientists to assess risk of such diseases entering Australia as a key to combating them.Read moreRead less
Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help ....Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help control future infectious disease threats to our society. Our aim is to collect detailed, unique data on demography, behavioural and social patterns of travellers and residents, and use this to develop mathematical models to evaluate effective control measures for emerging infections in Australia. This study will make a unique contribution to national disease control policy.Read moreRead less
High-resolution multiscale modelling of pandemics: COVID-19 and beyond. The project aims to develop high-resolution computational models for pandemic mitigation and control, focussing on the novel coronavirus and its emerging variants, and leveraging demographic, genomic and epidemiological data. It expects to rigorously compare multi-scale effects of complex vaccination and social distancing strategies and quantify optimal responses under the COVID-19 induced uncertainty. The intended outcomes ....High-resolution multiscale modelling of pandemics: COVID-19 and beyond. The project aims to develop high-resolution computational models for pandemic mitigation and control, focussing on the novel coronavirus and its emerging variants, and leveraging demographic, genomic and epidemiological data. It expects to rigorously compare multi-scale effects of complex vaccination and social distancing strategies and quantify optimal responses under the COVID-19 induced uncertainty. The intended outcomes include computational models of how the most infectious viral variants emerge and spread in presence of interventions, how to predict the outbreaks, and which are the most vulnerable communities. This should make a significant economic and social impact, improving population health while maintaining a resilient economy.Read moreRead less
Quantifying emergence and dynamics of foodborne epidemics in Australia. The project aims to greatly improve the accuracy and scope of computational epidemiological models predicting emergence and evolution of foodborne diseases in Australia. It expects to reveal key pathways for both biological evolution of microorganisms, and their spread though food supply chains and human interactions. The intended outcomes include discovering how the most dominant strains of foodborne infection emerge and se ....Quantifying emergence and dynamics of foodborne epidemics in Australia. The project aims to greatly improve the accuracy and scope of computational epidemiological models predicting emergence and evolution of foodborne diseases in Australia. It expects to reveal key pathways for both biological evolution of microorganisms, and their spread though food supply chains and human interactions. The intended outcomes include discovering how the most dominant strains of foodborne infection emerge and self-organise in complex networks, how to predict and contain the epidemics closer to their source, and which are the most vulnerable groups and communities. This should make a significant economic and social impact, improving health of the population, while also safeguarding national and international supply chains.Read moreRead less
Advanced Bayesian Networks for Epidemiology. We will demonstrate the potential of advanced Artificial Intelligence for medical informatics by extending the capabilities of Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks excel when researchers need to combine causal and diagnostic reasoning in areas characterised by uncertainty. But they have one flaw which hinders their use: they do not yet easily mix continuous and discrete variables. We will extend them to handle such mixes, then demonstrate how much the ....Advanced Bayesian Networks for Epidemiology. We will demonstrate the potential of advanced Artificial Intelligence for medical informatics by extending the capabilities of Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks excel when researchers need to combine causal and diagnostic reasoning in areas characterised by uncertainty. But they have one flaw which hinders their use: they do not yet easily mix continuous and discrete variables. We will extend them to handle such mixes, then demonstrate how much they can improve on current methods for predicting, among other things, coronary heart disease (CHD).Read moreRead less
Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as ....Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as for conservation efforts within Australia. The data will also provide novel means to track the timing and routes of human prehistoric movements throughout the area. It will establish strategic research collaborations between researchers in zoological, medical, epidemiological, genetics, and conservation fields in a unique multi-disciplinary study.Read moreRead less
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Design features for correct use of child car restraints. This project aims to minimise incorrect use of child restraints, which triple the risk of injury to children in car crashes. One in two children travelling in cars are incorrectly restrained. Using naturalistic and epidemiological studies, this project will characterise child restraint design features that minimise errors related to the real world interaction between restraint design, parents and children, and determine the effectiveness o ....Design features for correct use of child car restraints. This project aims to minimise incorrect use of child restraints, which triple the risk of injury to children in car crashes. One in two children travelling in cars are incorrectly restrained. Using naturalistic and epidemiological studies, this project will characterise child restraint design features that minimise errors related to the real world interaction between restraint design, parents and children, and determine the effectiveness of using optimally designed restraints. This research will help child restraint manufacturers to improve their products and design better child restraint systems, that reduce injury to children in crashes.Read moreRead less