Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give ins ....Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give insight by carefully quantifying and modelling uncertainty for such topics as the transmission rate of infectious diseases, the spatial distribution of plant and animal species, investigating biological theory for the genome of a virus, and changes in human fertility.Read moreRead less
Simulating viral evolution and genetic complexity. This project has direct relevance to understanding the growth of viral infections, and therefore has possible practical applications in disease research and control. Examples of these are emerging diseases in humans such as those caused by HIV-1, SARS coronavirus and Dengue virus, which cause considerable human suffering throughout the world. A major part of current research into these diseases involves attempts to model the evolutionary geneti ....Simulating viral evolution and genetic complexity. This project has direct relevance to understanding the growth of viral infections, and therefore has possible practical applications in disease research and control. Examples of these are emerging diseases in humans such as those caused by HIV-1, SARS coronavirus and Dengue virus, which cause considerable human suffering throughout the world. A major part of current research into these diseases involves attempts to model the evolutionary genetics and dynamics of virus populations in order to understand how to control epidemics, develop vaccines and design drugs. The research program is designed to provide new computational modelling tools for this purpose, which may have wider applications as well.
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Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help ....Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help control future infectious disease threats to our society. Our aim is to collect detailed, unique data on demography, behavioural and social patterns of travellers and residents, and use this to develop mathematical models to evaluate effective control measures for emerging infections in Australia. This study will make a unique contribution to national disease control policy.Read moreRead less
Comprehensive transcriptional mapping of emergent division-linked cell fate decisions. This project proposal will lead to a better understanding of the molecular mechanics that drive certain cellular behaviors. To do this, we will use a frontier technology, RNA sequencing, which we think has the potential to revolutionise Australian science and make Australia an even more attractive place for young researchers. The community at large benefits from novel technologies as they create new opportunit ....Comprehensive transcriptional mapping of emergent division-linked cell fate decisions. This project proposal will lead to a better understanding of the molecular mechanics that drive certain cellular behaviors. To do this, we will use a frontier technology, RNA sequencing, which we think has the potential to revolutionise Australian science and make Australia an even more attractive place for young researchers. The community at large benefits from novel technologies as they create new opportunities for university research and attract young minds to the challenges of maths and science.Read moreRead less
New approaches to inhibition of activity of HIV integrase. This project aims to assist in the development of novel anti-HIV drugs that will benefit the 17000 Australians and more than 33 million people worldwide who are currently suffering with this terrible disease. The project will utilise state-of-the-art approaches in structure-based drug design to identify and synthesise compounds as leads for the development of anti-HIV drugs. Furthermore, the project will provide invaluable training for t ....New approaches to inhibition of activity of HIV integrase. This project aims to assist in the development of novel anti-HIV drugs that will benefit the 17000 Australians and more than 33 million people worldwide who are currently suffering with this terrible disease. The project will utilise state-of-the-art approaches in structure-based drug design to identify and synthesise compounds as leads for the development of anti-HIV drugs. Furthermore, the project will provide invaluable training for the researchers involved and enhance the relationship between the academic and commercial collaborators.Read moreRead less
Informatics approaches to improving risk assessment and response to outbreaks of communicable diseases. The project will address the detection of infections caused by category A biological agents which pose a risk to national security. The project will contribute to Research priority 4 'Safeguarding Australia from invasive diseases and securing our critical infrastructure' by developing detection and alerting techniques for potential catastrophic threats. The Australian community will benefit fr ....Informatics approaches to improving risk assessment and response to outbreaks of communicable diseases. The project will address the detection of infections caused by category A biological agents which pose a risk to national security. The project will contribute to Research priority 4 'Safeguarding Australia from invasive diseases and securing our critical infrastructure' by developing detection and alerting techniques for potential catastrophic threats. The Australian community will benefit from more efficient detection and management of potential biothreats to health and infrastructure. The application of the model to other industry sectors will enable better strategic planning and implementation of biosecurity initiatives. The potential national cost-benefit is impressive given limitations of currently used surveillance tools.Read moreRead less
Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical s ....Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical spatial locations in which HIV cases are likely to emerge in the future. This project will also forecast the future geographical trends in Australia's changing HIV epidemic in order to plan for intervention strategies and prepare clinical practice appropriately.Read moreRead less
Epidemics, mortality and longevity in Tasmania, 1838-1930. This project will investigate areas of contemporary importance that can only be explored using historic-demographic data. National benefits include (1) gaining a better understanding of how epidemics spread through families and communities, and possible mortality and case-fatality rates, to assist in preparation for future epidemics; (2) improved accuracy in projecting older-age mortality and population ageing in Australia and other coun ....Epidemics, mortality and longevity in Tasmania, 1838-1930. This project will investigate areas of contemporary importance that can only be explored using historic-demographic data. National benefits include (1) gaining a better understanding of how epidemics spread through families and communities, and possible mortality and case-fatality rates, to assist in preparation for future epidemics; (2) improved accuracy in projecting older-age mortality and population ageing in Australia and other countries; and (3) more precise estimates of women's capacity to naturally conceive and carry to term by characteristics such as her age, her partner's age, and her number of previous births. The project will also result in augmentation of a unique publicly available dataset.Read moreRead less
New mathematical and statistical methods that inform the control of infectious disease outbreaks. Emerging infectious diseases are an ever-present threat to our community, as highlighted by the recent SARS epidemic and current fears concerning avian influenza. The research proposed by this project will help policy makers implement effective border control and outbreak control against a variety of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, including SARS, influenza and the deliberate release o ....New mathematical and statistical methods that inform the control of infectious disease outbreaks. Emerging infectious diseases are an ever-present threat to our community, as highlighted by the recent SARS epidemic and current fears concerning avian influenza. The research proposed by this project will help policy makers implement effective border control and outbreak control against a variety of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, including SARS, influenza and the deliberate release of an infectious disease such as smallpox. The project will enhance preparedness through a better understanding of the relative merits of different control strategies, and provide new methodology that can dynamically guide border and outbreak control in the midst of an outbreak by making effective use of data. Read moreRead less
Using mathematical modelling to inform HIV/AIDS public health policy. This research will directly inform HIV/AIDS policy officials on the most effective strategies for preventing new cases in HIV in the community. Consequently, there are health benefits for Australia and for the other countries in which the research is being conducted. HIV/AIDS community groups, educators, and other advocacy groups will also be engaged in the research, leading to the development of focussed prevention campaigns ....Using mathematical modelling to inform HIV/AIDS public health policy. This research will directly inform HIV/AIDS policy officials on the most effective strategies for preventing new cases in HIV in the community. Consequently, there are health benefits for Australia and for the other countries in which the research is being conducted. HIV/AIDS community groups, educators, and other advocacy groups will also be engaged in the research, leading to the development of focussed prevention campaigns by these stakeholders to inform the appropriate communities. Reducing the health burdens of HIV/AIDS will also have economic benefits.Read moreRead less