From Maps To Efficient Multi-parasite Control In The Philippines
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$358,121.00
Summary
Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths are major parasitic infections in Asia, causing anaemia, poor growth and poor school performance and death in some chronic schistosomiasis cases. We will use maps to demonstrate the geographic distribution of these parasites in the Philippines. We will estimate the impact and costs and benefits of parasite control programmes. This research will help plan more efficient parasite control and reduce the impact of these infections in the Philippines.
Using An Established Simulation Model To Determine Effective And Cost-effective Interventions To Mitigate Influenza Pandemics And Inform Public Health Policy
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$416,353.00
Summary
A novel disease spread and economic model is used to determine the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation strategies aimed at a future influenza pandemic. A simulation model generates data on which individuals become ill, morbidity and mortality characteristics, an economic costing model determines optimal interventions.
Fitness Versus Fatness: Disentangling Their Effects On Disease Outcomes And Estimating The Population Burden Of Disease
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$188,537.00
Summary
Overweight and physical inactivity are two of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. With increasing population levels of overweight, governments are increasingly advocating public health measures aimed at increasing physical activity levels or otherwise decreasing weight. There has been much research concerning which of these factors is the key prognostic factor for adverse health outcomes, but an ongoing lack of clarity of research findings has led to uncertainty as to ....Overweight and physical inactivity are two of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. With increasing population levels of overweight, governments are increasingly advocating public health measures aimed at increasing physical activity levels or otherwise decreasing weight. There has been much research concerning which of these factors is the key prognostic factor for adverse health outcomes, but an ongoing lack of clarity of research findings has led to uncertainty as to the direction of recommendations for preventive health strategies and population lifestyle changes. In addition, the risks of overweight, in particular, have been accused of being exaggerated in both the scientific and lay literature. This is often due to the difficulty of dealing appropriately with time varying confounders which are also intermediate factors (such as hypertension). To date, no studies have performed careful longitudinal modelling of the joint effects of physical inactivity and overweight on cardiovascular events and diabetes while taking into account the effects of factors, such as hypertension or atherosclerosis, that influence both physical activity and overweight as well as disease, and simultaneously are consequences of these risk factors. Standard statistical methods are known to produce biased estimates in these situations but we will apply more recently developed statistical techniques to provide much improved estimation of these effects. After the statistical modelling stage, we will model the burden of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with given levels of overweight and physical inactivity. These will be combined with population levels of overweight and inactivity to identify the fraction of the current and future burden of disease attributable to these risk factors.Read moreRead less
Does Environmental Change Drive The Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics Of Echinococcus Spp. In Ningxia, China?
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$654,548.00
Summary
Human echinococcosis is a chronic debilitating disease with a death rate that can exceed 90%. In China it is a major public health issue where recent environmental changes are likely to increase transmission rates, thus increasing the disease burden. This project will assess the impact of these environmental changes on the transmission of this disease over space and time, it will predict where new cases will arise, and determine the best methods for sustainable control and then elimination.
Lifetime Alcohol Consumption And Risk Of Mortality And Morbidity: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$71,765.00
Summary
Australia has a high alcohol consumption rate with many people drinking above recommended national guidelines. Alcohol is attributed with a dual effect on disease outcomes: as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, cancer and liver cirrhosis and a protective effect on coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus, depending on the volume and pattern of consumption. We aim to study these associations using lifetime alcohol consumption data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.
Clostridium Difficile: Assessing The Risks To Australia Of An Emerging Healthcare-related Pathogen
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$1,180,256.00
Summary
Clostridium difficile is a bacterium that causes inflammation of the large bowel that can lead to surgical removal of the bowel or death. In North America and Europe, an international epidemic strain has caused large outbreaks of severe, fatal disease. In 2009, this strain was identified for the first time in Perth, Australia. We will investigate strains currently present in Brisbane and Perth and risk of outbreaks occurring from imported and local strains.
Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug r ....Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug resistant infections make this a timely and important study with significant policy implications, both externally and in the Australian context. Read moreRead less
Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from te ....Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from terrorism and crime. Special focus will be given to the control of invasive species, the control of emerging infections, and the optimal allocation of resources. The current risks posed by invasive diseases and pests, and the alarming rate of destruction of biodiversity, warrant urgent funding of this project.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100730
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$448,000.00
Summary
Strategies to minimise the societal impacts of zoonotic pandemics. The continuing pandemic has had unprecedented effects across society. Population mobility restrictions have been effective in slowing transmission, but are only effective while in place and have dramatic adverse effects. Despite Australia’s relative success, we have lacked a clear national strategy to guide the optimal deployment of such restrictions. During this fellowship, I will use robust software development practices to dev ....Strategies to minimise the societal impacts of zoonotic pandemics. The continuing pandemic has had unprecedented effects across society. Population mobility restrictions have been effective in slowing transmission, but are only effective while in place and have dramatic adverse effects. Despite Australia’s relative success, we have lacked a clear national strategy to guide the optimal deployment of such restrictions. During this fellowship, I will use robust software development practices to develop a unified software platform that integrates semi-mechanistic, particle filter and agent-based methodologies. I will then use this platform to quantify the effects of mobility restrictions and define the optimal strategic response that should be selected based on the characteristics of a newly emerged pathogen.Read moreRead less
Spatial Simulation Modelling Of Containment Strategies For Pandemic Influenza
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$99,927.00
Summary
This research will develop a spatial simulation model to predict the spread of pandemic influenza within Australia. The resulting software program will be readily usable by disease managers, both during and prior to an outbreak, to predict the effect of various containment measures on the size, rate and location of disease spread, through a city, state or the nation. Deployed in _real time� after an outbreak has started in Australia, it will be used to predict infection spread and the containmen ....This research will develop a spatial simulation model to predict the spread of pandemic influenza within Australia. The resulting software program will be readily usable by disease managers, both during and prior to an outbreak, to predict the effect of various containment measures on the size, rate and location of disease spread, through a city, state or the nation. Deployed in _real time� after an outbreak has started in Australia, it will be used to predict infection spread and the containment effect of a range of interventions. The model would use data obtained during initial stages of the outbreak to refine the model, so allowing accuracy in daily spread prediction; similar use of spatial models occurred during the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK. In a pre-pandemic period the simulation model will be available to predict the containment effect of a range of response measures, such as travel restrictions, workplace and school closures, vaccination and antiviral usage. Specifically, this project will apply the simulation model to determine optimal use of limited resources such as the _when and where� targeting of antiviral drugs and initial supplies of vaccine.Read moreRead less