New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved ....Advanced mathematical models and methods for a randomly-varying world. This project aims to develop advanced stochastic models and novel techniques, to analytically obtain performance measures and to efficiently simulate the time evolution. This project also plans to apply new models and methods to address important problems in ecology and epidemiology. The outputs of this project will advance knowledge in mathematics as well as in the intended application areas, including ultimately in improved understanding, modelling, and tracking of the spread of diseases.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230101174
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$443,154.00
Summary
Harnessing life-course transitions to optimise time-use behaviour habits. At every stage of life, how we use our time is one of the greatest determinants of our happiness, productivity, social wellbeing and quality of life. Time-use habits, for better or worse, are entrenched in daily routines that are difficult to break. This project aims to use existing population datasets to identify when during their life people are most likely to change their time-use habits, and to describe who may be at g ....Harnessing life-course transitions to optimise time-use behaviour habits. At every stage of life, how we use our time is one of the greatest determinants of our happiness, productivity, social wellbeing and quality of life. Time-use habits, for better or worse, are entrenched in daily routines that are difficult to break. This project aims to use existing population datasets to identify when during their life people are most likely to change their time-use habits, and to describe who may be at greatest risk of making unfavourable changes (e.g., replacing physical activity with sedentary time, not getting enough sleep). Expected outcomes include new analytical methods to understand time-use routines and new knowledge to inform future time-use improvement strategies to enable Australians to live their best life.Read moreRead less
Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project t ....Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project the spread of disease through feral animal populations in Australia, and 3) combines quantitative data and robust analytical tools that can be used as a template for solving many broad-scale feral animal problems around the world.Read moreRead less
Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. I ....Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. In such work, three themes have emerged as having the potential to revolutionise the modelling of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure (both age and spatial), and inference. This project will develop state-of-the-art techniques, at the interface of these themes, of critical importance to understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases.Read moreRead less
Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as ....Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as for conservation efforts within Australia. The data will also provide novel means to track the timing and routes of human prehistoric movements throughout the area. It will establish strategic research collaborations between researchers in zoological, medical, epidemiological, genetics, and conservation fields in a unique multi-disciplinary study.Read moreRead less
Modelling and control of mosquito-borne diseases in Darwin using long-term monitoring. Management of mosquito populations is a high public health priority because these insects can spread diseases such as malaria, dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Murray Valley encephalitis, Japanese encephalitis and Kunjin/West Nile virus. Our research into the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in Darwin is of immediate national relevance and priority given the need to Safeguard Australia ....Modelling and control of mosquito-borne diseases in Darwin using long-term monitoring. Management of mosquito populations is a high public health priority because these insects can spread diseases such as malaria, dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Murray Valley encephalitis, Japanese encephalitis and Kunjin/West Nile virus. Our research into the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in Darwin is of immediate national relevance and priority given the need to Safeguard Australia from invasive diseases. There is an urgency to undertake our research because global environmental change and increasing movements of people (particularly military personnel) from overseas regions where these diseases are endemic is increasing the vulnerability of northern Australia to the (re)establishment of mosquito borne diseases.Read moreRead less