New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project t ....Ecological-epidemiological models of feral swamp buffalo control in northern Australia. This research is locally, nationally and internationally significant because it 1) improves the capacity of the Northern Territory and its traditional aboriginal owners to manage together this prevalent species in an effort to minimise disturbance to native flora and fauna and to understand the long-term implications of continued proliferation, 2) provides a nationally relevant system to monitor and project the spread of disease through feral animal populations in Australia, and 3) combines quantitative data and robust analytical tools that can be used as a template for solving many broad-scale feral animal problems around the world.Read moreRead less
Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. I ....Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference. Infectious diseases remain a major contributor to mortality and illness worldwide. The potential for future severe pandemics also continues to present a substantial threat to our health and well-being. Mathematics and statistics are increasingly becoming part of the arsenal used by governments to combat the invasion and spread of infectious diseases. In such work, three themes have emerged as having the potential to revolutionise the modelling of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure (both age and spatial), and inference. This project will develop state-of-the-art techniques, at the interface of these themes, of critical importance to understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases.Read moreRead less
Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as ....Phylogeography, evolution and taxonomy of humanity's greatest pest, Rattus rattus: Epidemiological, archaeological and conservation implications. This project will characterise a major threat to Australian biosecurity and health, and identify the range of likely disease risks associated with introductions of different 'strains' of black rat. It will provide critical data for management efforts around the world, especially for strategic partners in neighbouring Southeast Asian nations, as well as for conservation efforts within Australia. The data will also provide novel means to track the timing and routes of human prehistoric movements throughout the area. It will establish strategic research collaborations between researchers in zoological, medical, epidemiological, genetics, and conservation fields in a unique multi-disciplinary study.Read moreRead less
Modelling and control of mosquito-borne diseases in Darwin using long-term monitoring. Management of mosquito populations is a high public health priority because these insects can spread diseases such as malaria, dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Murray Valley encephalitis, Japanese encephalitis and Kunjin/West Nile virus. Our research into the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in Darwin is of immediate national relevance and priority given the need to Safeguard Australia ....Modelling and control of mosquito-borne diseases in Darwin using long-term monitoring. Management of mosquito populations is a high public health priority because these insects can spread diseases such as malaria, dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Murray Valley encephalitis, Japanese encephalitis and Kunjin/West Nile virus. Our research into the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in Darwin is of immediate national relevance and priority given the need to Safeguard Australia from invasive diseases. There is an urgency to undertake our research because global environmental change and increasing movements of people (particularly military personnel) from overseas regions where these diseases are endemic is increasing the vulnerability of northern Australia to the (re)establishment of mosquito borne diseases.Read moreRead less