Assessment Of The Sensitivity Of Australia’s Aquatic Animal Disease Surveillance System Using Scenario Tree Modelling
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$224,000.00
Summary
The sensitivity of an overall passive surveillance system is difficult to determine due to variability in factors such as disease characteristics, passive surveillance stakeholders and the likelihood that disease events will be reported and investigated. The WOAH Aquatic Animal Health Code also stipulates the primary evidence for historical freedom is passive surveillant information generated by a country’s early detection system that needs to be sufficiently sensitive.
Scenario tree m ....The sensitivity of an overall passive surveillance system is difficult to determine due to variability in factors such as disease characteristics, passive surveillance stakeholders and the likelihood that disease events will be reported and investigated. The WOAH Aquatic Animal Health Code also stipulates the primary evidence for historical freedom is passive surveillant information generated by a country’s early detection system that needs to be sufficiently sensitive.
Scenario tree modelling (STM) can be used to overcome those challenges. STM uses quantitative statistical methods to estimate the sensitivity of various components of the surveillance system (e.g. presentation of disease signs, disease recognition and reporting). These estimates can then be used to identify critical points in the system to which interventions can be targeted to improve the system. STM can be applied to any aquatic disease/industry of interest and there are some successful examples for terrestrial diseases/industries, both in Australia and overseas.
Two aquatic animal disease agents of trade and biosecurity significance, WSSV and megalocytiviruses, will be evaluated as case studies. These diseases are subject to import biosecurity measures and have significant production impacts, as they severely affect farmed and wild aquatic animal species that are valued by many stakeholders (e.g. aquaculture, capture fisheries, recreational fisheries and conservation groups). A sound STM assessment of each case study will support our early detection system through a quantitative evaluation of the speed of the detection, and improve our emergency disease response strategy by determining areas in our passive surveillance that, once strengthened, will provide a greater return on future investment.
As mentioned above, increasing the sensitivity of Australia’s passive surveillance is a national priority. This project is identified in AQUAPLAN 2022-2017 as Activity 3.3. The outcomes of this project are also used for other AQUAPLAN activities, National surveillance strategy (Activity 3.1) and Sector-specific surveillance plans (Activity 3.2). The data produced from this project will provide recommendations for various interventions to improve the overall performance of the passive surveillance system for the participating industries.
More broadly, the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation R&D Plan 2020-2025 identified building capability and capacity for biosecurity as a priority. In alignment with the R&D plan, successful outcomes of this project will improve understanding of disease transmission pathways which will enhance biosecurity practices. It will improve allocation of biosecurity resources (by identifying the most effective and cost-efficient way of investing resources in surveillance to get the best return), minimise biosecurity threats (by enhancing passive surveillance to accelerate an early detection) and improve market access for associated industry producers (by providing quantitative information on their passive surveillance sensitivity as a market access negotiation tool).
Objectives: 1. Quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of Australia’s passive surveillance system for white spot disease 2. Quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of Australia’s passive surveillance system for megalocytiviruses Read moreRead less
Elucidating Metabolic Dysregulation In Alzheimer’s Disease: Profiling The Peripheral Immune Cell Lipidome To Unravel Pathological Mechanisms.
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$645,205.00
Summary
Both the immune system and lipid metabolism have been identified to be important in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). With the failures of all clinical trials attempting to treat AD, we seek to determine a way to both better diagnose individuals with AD and to identify people at increased risk. This project uses a novel profiling technique to characterise the lipid composition of immune cells to diagnose, predict risk, monitor the disease and to identify potential disease modifying therapeutic targets.
Storm Bay Research Program Management, Governance And Extension
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$636,438.94
Summary
Proposed salmon aquaculture expansion in Storm Bay has created the Tasmanian State Government (PA and EPA) need for a suite of research to be undertaken by CSIRO and IMAS to assist planning and regulation. Given the complexity of the Storm Bay research and implications for Salmon planning and regulation, and necessary community communication, there is a need for ‘Storm Bay Project’ governance and communication support as follows:
1) A Project Manager, to be engaged by FRDC will require ....Proposed salmon aquaculture expansion in Storm Bay has created the Tasmanian State Government (PA and EPA) need for a suite of research to be undertaken by CSIRO and IMAS to assist planning and regulation. Given the complexity of the Storm Bay research and implications for Salmon planning and regulation, and necessary community communication, there is a need for ‘Storm Bay Project’ governance and communication support as follows:
1) A Project Manager, to be engaged by FRDC will require a 0.5 FTE role (to be reviewed 6 and 12 months for adequacy and need), will coordinate Project Governance (relating to the IMAS and CSIRO research suite) and provide direct reporting to the Steering Committee, against the agreed work plan on progress, achievements or challenges. The Project Manager will chair the various sub-committees, and manage consultants and communication releases to develop and ensure integration of monitoring and research, delivery of outcomes, and public reporting. The PM will also be responsible for coordinating engagement between the steering committee and independent governance committee. An operational in-direct cost will be needed for computer, stationary, catering and transport costs for the function on the Project Manager.
2) Communication Advisory Sub-committee support as required a) Consultant support is needed to create the Storm Bay Project communication strategy and communication products,
3) Community Reference Group Support as required a) Support for an independent convener is requested to create a Community Reference Group that will provide community input into the Storm Bay Project communication strategy b) A research evaluation of the Community Reference Group outputs is warranted to assess and improve community engagement and communication (Dr Alexander)
4) Tasmanian State Government see the need for the outputs of all 3-research projects to be independent externally reviewed and that the findings be-released into the public domain. Support for an external Independent Review Panel of the CSIRO and IMAS research suite outputs will be sought via a future project extension (proposal to be prepared by the Project Manager). Objectives: 1. Support Storm Bay Project communication strategy development, public communication and evaluation 2. Provide governance support to the Storm Bay Project 3. Develop a project extension in order to undertake an independent peer review of science outputs from this CSIRO and IMAS research suite Read moreRead less
Next Generation Decision Support Tools To Support Sustainable Aquaculture In Storm Bay
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$791,324.00
Summary
To expand into new coastal and offshore areas, the Tasmanian Salmon Industry needs to maintain the support of State Government and the Tasmanian community by clearly demonstrating responsible stewardship and sustainable use of the marine environment. For Government agencies to adequately assess the environmental implications of these developments, they need to understand the environmental footprint of the industry, the capacity of the environment to assimilate waste loads, and any other environm ....To expand into new coastal and offshore areas, the Tasmanian Salmon Industry needs to maintain the support of State Government and the Tasmanian community by clearly demonstrating responsible stewardship and sustainable use of the marine environment. For Government agencies to adequately assess the environmental implications of these developments, they need to understand the environmental footprint of the industry, the capacity of the environment to assimilate waste loads, and any other environmental risks associated with aquaculture operations. With this information State Government and Industry can demonstrate best practice in the strategic and sustainable expansion of aquaculture, minimise environmental impacts, and keep the Tasmanian community well informed.
In recent years, the utility of environmental models and decision support tools have been successfully demonstrated for the Huon Estuary and D’Entrecasteaux Channel. For example, the availability of a validated biogeochemical model for this region enabled the development of the marine ecological emulator for rapid assessment of aquaculture operations on water quality.
Expansion of salmon aquaculture into new regions, such as Storm Bay, now requires both geographical extension of these capabilities and more flexible and cost-effective implementation approaches to modelling. In particular there is a need to develop lease scale modelling to predict and assess near scale (lease/cage) effect of aquaculture development.
The proposed expansion of the capabilities and decisions support tools outlined in this project will assist the State Government and Industry to forecast the potential extent and nature of impacts of aquaculture operations on the marine environment at multiple scales (e.g. lease and broadscale) under a range of operational scenarios. Objectives: 1. Provide relocatable modelling capability that can supply enhanced resolution environmental information within Storm Bay. 2. To provide access to a public online decision support tool to assist with the management of waterborne contaminants and marine biosecurity within Storm Bay 3. To provide registered stakeholders with access to an online decision support tool to assist with the management of water quality in Storm Bay Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100730
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$448,000.00
Summary
Strategies to minimise the societal impacts of zoonotic pandemics. The continuing pandemic has had unprecedented effects across society. Population mobility restrictions have been effective in slowing transmission, but are only effective while in place and have dramatic adverse effects. Despite Australia’s relative success, we have lacked a clear national strategy to guide the optimal deployment of such restrictions. During this fellowship, I will use robust software development practices to dev ....Strategies to minimise the societal impacts of zoonotic pandemics. The continuing pandemic has had unprecedented effects across society. Population mobility restrictions have been effective in slowing transmission, but are only effective while in place and have dramatic adverse effects. Despite Australia’s relative success, we have lacked a clear national strategy to guide the optimal deployment of such restrictions. During this fellowship, I will use robust software development practices to develop a unified software platform that integrates semi-mechanistic, particle filter and agent-based methodologies. I will then use this platform to quantify the effects of mobility restrictions and define the optimal strategic response that should be selected based on the characteristics of a newly emerged pathogen.Read moreRead less
Enhancing Genomic Prediction for Changing Environments in Wheat. Adverse weather is the primary risk faced by the Australian agriculture industry. This Project aims to develop the next generation of agriculture tools to unlock natural potential in wheat and improve yield stability across seasons and regions. Drawing on crop physiology, genetics and integrated modelling, this Project expects to generate new knowledge and technologies to untangle genetic and environmental interactions that affect ....Enhancing Genomic Prediction for Changing Environments in Wheat. Adverse weather is the primary risk faced by the Australian agriculture industry. This Project aims to develop the next generation of agriculture tools to unlock natural potential in wheat and improve yield stability across seasons and regions. Drawing on crop physiology, genetics and integrated modelling, this Project expects to generate new knowledge and technologies to untangle genetic and environmental interactions that affect productivity, enhance predictive capability, and initiate advanced breeding strategies to develop new crop varieties with superior resilience against changing climates. This should provide significant benefits, such as profit stability for wheat growers, elevated global market position and improved food security.Read moreRead less
Developing A Cost-efficient Stock Assessment Program For Southern Calamari Fisheries
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$496,827.00
Summary
Southern Calamari are important to multiple commercial and community fishery sectors in SA. Southern Calamari are now managed using a TACC for the commercial MSF and have specified resource allocations for recreational, Aboriginal/Traditional, Charter Boat, GSV prawn and SG prawn fisheries. However, the current assessment program does not capture the importance of this species and cannot support the level of management required. The primary outcome of this project will be to develop an assessmen ....Southern Calamari are important to multiple commercial and community fishery sectors in SA. Southern Calamari are now managed using a TACC for the commercial MSF and have specified resource allocations for recreational, Aboriginal/Traditional, Charter Boat, GSV prawn and SG prawn fisheries. However, the current assessment program does not capture the importance of this species and cannot support the level of management required. The primary outcome of this project will be to develop an assessment program for Southern Calamari in SA that can be used to assign stock status and provide TACC setting advice to fisheries management.
Like many cephalopod assessments, the current SA Southern Calamari assessment is basic as scientific advances have not occurred at the same rate as advances for finfish or crustacean assessment methods. Therefore, the successful development of an assessment program for Southern Calamari in SA would provide a valuable scientific contribution to several other Australian squid fisheries as they often encounter similar assessment difficulties
Overcoming key knowledge gaps and incorporating information on environmental drivers will be a key focus of this project, in order to develop an assessment that accounts for the full complexity of cephalopod population dynamics. However, there are limited resources to undertake an assessment in SA as the commercial MSF has a low gross value product (GVP) but has high assessment needs across several species. Therefore, a cost-effective assessment program must be developed to allow for its regular application, which is necessary for short lived species such as Southern Calamari.
The proposed project will address two FRDC strategic plan outcomes (Growth for enduring prosperity, and best practices and production systems) by developing a best practice assessment program that can be applied for Southern Calamari in SA and be extended for use in other fishery jurisdictions. An assessment program that provides confident management advice, such as TACC setting, will maximise resource use across all sectors by establishing a robust stock assessment that increases certainty in stock abundance and allows sustainable fishing strategies to be developed.
Objectives: 1. Review global cephalopod assessments to identify potential assessment methods for Southern Calamari and how environmental variables could be incorporated. 2. Evaluate the suitability of available fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data from the SG and GSV prawn fisheries to develop recruitment indices. 3. Develop Southern Calamari growth models for SG and GSV and evaluate the influence of environment on seasonal growth rates. 4. Outline the most suitable and cost-effective assessment program option for Southern Calamari in SG and GSV Read moreRead less
Understanding The Economics And Markets Of The Western Rock Lobster Industry
Funder
Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
Funding Amount
$749,000.00
Summary
The Program is required to enable the economics research required over the next 3-4 years by retaining the WRL Economist and engaging a WRL Data Analyst to :
1. undertake research and demonstrate the effects of COVID-19 and international trade disruptions on the industry’s financial wellbeing and economic contribution, as a narrative incorporating the pre-, current and post-disruption era;
2. investigate and implement enhancements to the WRL MEY model based on verified stakehol ....The Program is required to enable the economics research required over the next 3-4 years by retaining the WRL Economist and engaging a WRL Data Analyst to :
1. undertake research and demonstrate the effects of COVID-19 and international trade disruptions on the industry’s financial wellbeing and economic contribution, as a narrative incorporating the pre-, current and post-disruption era;
2. investigate and implement enhancements to the WRL MEY model based on verified stakeholder feedback; • MEY modelling is based on (among other factors) expected longer-term beach prices for lobster achieved by fishers. Beach prices are themselves underpinned by prices achieved in domestic and export markets for live, frozen and other processed forms of western rock lobster, and supply chain costs — all of which have changed markedly over the past couple of years and have influenced the longer-term outlook considerably. o Domestic markets have absorbed higher volumes of Australian product over the past two years than in the previous ten, encouraging a pivot by processors to include more cooked, frozen and other processed product in the product portfolio. o Frozen and chilled product has also been demonstrated to have general acceptance in overseas markets, albeit at lower prices than achieved by similar live product. o Air and sea freight costs and reliability have been adversely compromised in the face of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, with the medium-term outlook for freight costs expected to be a multiple of pre-COVID rates – affecting the relative attractiveness of domestic versus export markets. o Processors and marketers have explored alternative export markets and paths to market in the wake of political uncertainty and trade disruptions. There is a need to understand the implications of this market shift on the net beach prices achievable by fishers, which will be achieved through a better understanding of the changes in market access and supply chain costs (transport, live holding, handling, additional processing, freight forwarding by air and by sea). o Taken together, this suite of change constitutes a significant, and potentially longer-term, challenge to the western rock lobster industry that has high potential to bring about changes in industry structure.
3. research and implement mechanisms by which individual fishers / business owners can benchmark their businesses against relevant industry economic standards.
• Benchmarking aims to improve the internal performance of fishers' private business operations by providing each business with an opportunity to compare itself to the industry's performance • Benchmarking is not limited to economic metrics, including physical metrics such as fuel use that enable a more granular understanding of the carbon footprint of the fishing fleet. • The aim is to generate an understanding of the range of cost structures in the fishing fleet, to better inform the cost elements of MEY modelling for economic sustainability of the fishery.
4. investigate and implement enhancements to the WRL Global Trade Report.
• The pandemic and its ongoing turmoil, combined with trade disruptions to Australia’s live exports, has brought about a change in global lobster trade flows into the highest volume, highest value market – at Australia’s expense. o The resultant situation includes a loss of market share and value to alternative suppliers of live spiny lobster, other lobster species, and other high value crustaceans. o Consumer preferences have shown signs of changing in response to COVID and associated health policies, regulations and restrictions. During the course of the pandemic, consumption of rock lobster pivoted to at-home consumption, with some preference-shifting to frozen product, particularly in countries with aggressive health policies that enacted operating restrictions on restaurants and larger gatherings.
5. research and implement mechanisms by which WRL's Global Trade Report, MEY Model and Markets Dashboard would work together with DPIRD's Harvest Strategy to underpin TACC setting into the future, adding considerable benefit to government as the resource manager by supplying timely, independent, industry-oriented information to the consideration set
Objectives: 1. Enable the Global Trade Report the MEY Model and the Markets Dashboard to work together with the Harvest Strategy to underpin TACC setting and ensure the continued sustainability of the stock. 2. Demonstrate the effects of the SARSCoV2 pandemic and trade disruptions on the industry’s resilience, economic contribution and adaptation to changing market forces. 3. Develop benchmarks for use by fishers’ businesses against industry economic standards to enhance industry reslience and adaptation to trade disruptions. 4. Ensure usability of economics data by driving further integration of data sets, models and tools, and building into the digitization program. Read moreRead less
Networks: New links between spectrum, dynamics, rewirings and applications. Modern network science has transformed the study of complex systems and led to innovations in many disciplines. This project intends to develop breakthrough theories for control of complex networked system behaviour via interventions of the link-rewiring type. New approaches will be developed for non-random, assortative and/or structured networks, which are poorly understood and difficult to deal with, despite being the ....Networks: New links between spectrum, dynamics, rewirings and applications. Modern network science has transformed the study of complex systems and led to innovations in many disciplines. This project intends to develop breakthrough theories for control of complex networked system behaviour via interventions of the link-rewiring type. New approaches will be developed for non-random, assortative and/or structured networks, which are poorly understood and difficult to deal with, despite being the real-world norm and despite their impact. The results will give new insights into epidemic outbreaks and their impact on vulnerable groups (e.g., elderly and indigenous), and provides methods to enforce resilience of infrastructure networks such as power grids, thereby providing significant economic and societal benefits. Read moreRead less
Epidemics in large populations: long-term and near-critical behaviour. The project aims to prove qualitative and quantitative results concerning aspects of the long-term behaviour of near-critical epidemics, including the probability and duration of a large outbreak, and the total number of people infected. This project is a theoretical study of stochastic models of epidemics in large populations. The project will focus on emerging epidemics, where the average number of contacts, infection and r ....Epidemics in large populations: long-term and near-critical behaviour. The project aims to prove qualitative and quantitative results concerning aspects of the long-term behaviour of near-critical epidemics, including the probability and duration of a large outbreak, and the total number of people infected. This project is a theoretical study of stochastic models of epidemics in large populations. The project will focus on emerging epidemics, where the average number of contacts, infection and recovery rates are such that the basic reproduction number of the disease is near the critical value 1. The project will plan to both analyse particular epidemic models and develop new methodologies applicable in broader contexts. The mathematical predictions will be tested through simulations and comparison to real-world data. The significant outcome of the project should be the advancement in mathematical understanding of infectious disease spread, eventually leading to improved epidemic surveillance and control, and resulting in more effective protection of public health, improved quality of life, and obvious economic benefits.Read moreRead less