Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less
Coupling tropical cyclone and climate physics with ocean waves. It is argued that without accounting for the wave effects directly, the physics of large-scale air-sea interactions is inaccurate and incomplete. The project will introduce explicit coupling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena with the physics of surface waves which should lead to improved predictions of tropical cyclones and climate.
Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There ar ....Tropical and mid- and high latitude cyclones in a time of climate change: New insights and integration. Significant national and community benefits will be derived. Australian weather and climate variability, particularly with respect to rainfall, is influenced dramatically by meteorological features in the tropics and the extratropics. Enhanced understanding of these and their interactions will lead to increased comprehension of the causes of Australian rainfall variability and trends. There are also benefits in that the project's timing is very opportune and will be able to derive benefit for Australia by participation in a number of large international programs. The personnel and students will derive considerable profit from expose to these.Read moreRead less
Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our bio ....Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Genesis of Australian Climate Extremes in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental s ....Genesis of Australian Climate Extremes in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. I propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is ....Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is essential to determine whether global warming is changing Australian tropical cyclones, a crucial climate change question. Separating the influences of atmospheric circulation variations and other factors on climate changes and impacts should improve climate impact predictions, leading to enhanced economic benefits.
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The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful ....The weather-climate connection in Australian climate change. This project aims to uncover the key links in Australia's weather-climate connection by identifying the role weather features play in influencing the slowly varying climate and how changes in one might affect changes in the other. Better describing the two-way connection between weather and climate through an innovative combination of research techniques usually applied to only one of weather or climate will allow for a more insightful assessment of climate model quality. This assessment will support the identification of the most reliable climate models and, by using them, reduce uncertainties in future predictions. Improved predictions of climate in turn will enable better decision making in all sectors of society.Read moreRead less