Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
Climate change and migration in China: theoretical, empirical and policy dimensions. This project will analyse the complex relationship between climate change and migration by focussing in depth on two areas in China anticipated being major hotspots of Climate change impact. It will provide insight into national and international policy development in Climate change mitigation and adaptations.
Comparative Paleogenomics of the Arctic Tundra Ecosystem: the genetic response of plants and animals to climate change. This project will use DNA from deep-frozen seeds and bones 100,000 years old to record how species respond to climate change - by adapting and surviving or by shifting ranges and moving. Very large numbers of genes will be examined to identify changes across the genomes of four plant and two animal species, and contrast the responses to major climatic shifts.
Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selec ....Using phylogenomics to record the impacts of climate change, extinction and population fragmentation. This project will use ancient DNA from permafrost-preserved Steppe bison bones and bovid exome capture systems to build a detailed record of the genomic impacts of rapid climate and environmental change at the end of the Pleistocene (30 to 11 kyr). The project will analyse how ancestral genetic diversity is distributed amongst surviving bison populations, and the role of nuclear loci under selection and drift. It will create a novel temporal dataset of genomic adaptation and evolution, and will generate critical data for studies of evolutionary processes such as extinctions, speciation and conservation biology and management.Read moreRead less
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130101571
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Assimilation of ocean wave interactions with sea ice into climate models. Contemporary climate models do not accurately portray ocean or atmosphere interactions where the open ocean meets the expanses of floating sea ice within the polar regions, as they lack a component to determine the size of ice floes. This project will tackle the omission directly, developing from modelling advances made in recent years.
A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation tech ....A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will quantify the risks associated with current and future climate change, and the combined risks that come from multiple sources, such as from coastal tides and storm runoff. This research will provide a new spatial framework for calculating risk as well as tools to evaluate flood risk.Read moreRead less
Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new m ....Methods for establishing cumulative CO2 emission budgets for Australia. Limiting global warming requires curbing cumulative carbon emissions. However, we do not know how the quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and maximal warming is modulated by other climate-relevant gases (for example, sulphur oxide or Methane) nor have we quantified the relationship in sufficient detail for aligning national and international policy strategies. This project will develop new methods to establish global emission budgets for various climate targets and likelihoods. Options for Australia’s share will be quantified on the basis of effort-sharing proposals. This research is vital for Australian policy makers, the energy sector, and the public in order to plan for coming decades.Read moreRead less
Multi-model predictions of ecosystem flux under climate change based on novel genetic and image analysis methods. Improving the forecasts of ecosystem shifts must be a key focus of future ecological research if we are to preserve our unique Australian landscapes. Our proposal is of clear benefit to Australia because of the urgent need for integrated methods to predict the cumulative impact of shifts in climate and land use. We will also contribute innovative tools involving genetic and image ana ....Multi-model predictions of ecosystem flux under climate change based on novel genetic and image analysis methods. Improving the forecasts of ecosystem shifts must be a key focus of future ecological research if we are to preserve our unique Australian landscapes. Our proposal is of clear benefit to Australia because of the urgent need for integrated methods to predict the cumulative impact of shifts in climate and land use. We will also contribute innovative tools involving genetic and image analysis, and state-of-the-art modelling. The damage modern human societies are inflicting on global environments has led to a great demand for logistically feasible and cost-effective ways to prevent biodiversity loss.Read moreRead less
The role of epigenetic modifications in bovid adaptation to environmental change. This project will explore the role of epigenetic change, where gene expression is regulated without changing the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) sequence, in how animals adapt to rapid climate change. This project will trace epigenetic markers in ancient bison and cows through 30,000 years of climate change, and identify key adaptive genes for the cattle industry.