Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence ....Towards a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation. In Earth's current climate, about 80 to 90 tropical cyclones form every year around the globe, but the reasons why cyclones form at this rate are unknown. This project will use a combination of theoretical techniques and numerical simulation to elucidate the links between large-scale climate and the rate of tropical cyclone formation. A series of climate model experiments will be performed that also have the potential to improve confidence in our predictions of tropical cyclone incidence in a future, changed climate.Read moreRead less
Causes of Enhanced Warming of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is critical to the global climate system in general, and Australian climate in particular. However, the Southern Ocean is poorly understood, poorly observed and poorly modelled by global climate models. The response of the Southern Ocean to increases in wind forcing (due to the ozone hole and global warming) will be examined. Climate impacts such as Australian rainfall trends, potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice She ....Causes of Enhanced Warming of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean is critical to the global climate system in general, and Australian climate in particular. However, the Southern Ocean is poorly understood, poorly observed and poorly modelled by global climate models. The response of the Southern Ocean to increases in wind forcing (due to the ozone hole and global warming) will be examined. Climate impacts such as Australian rainfall trends, potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and changes to the global overturning circulation will be quantified. Understanding these impacts will help to manage Australia's water resources and to predict the future Southern Ocean circulation.Read moreRead less
Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interac ....Resilience of eucalypts to future droughts. This project aims to examine how resilient Eucalyptus species are to future droughts by combining data synthesis, manipulative experiments and modelling. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of future droughts, with major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. Current predictive capacity is extremely limited: experiments are limited in scale and cannot capture important global change interactions, whilst models do not represent the functional characteristics and adaptions of eucalypts. This project will develop a strong evidence- and process-based understanding to quantify the functional behaviour of drought-adapted Eucalyptus species and leverage this insight to make future model projections.Read moreRead less
Are proposed land-based sinks for greenhouse gases resilient to climate change and natural variability? One strategy to reduce the scale of future climate change is to enhance the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Evidence suggests carbon stored in vegetation and soils is itself vulnerable to climate change, placing this stored carbon at risk; this project will assess this risk to advise on the reliability of using terrestrial systems as carbon sinks.
Sensitivity and Change in the Global Ocean Overturning. The dynamics of the global, deep overturning circulation in the oceans and the way this adjusts to increasing greenhouse forcing will be examined in order to improve our conceptual knowledge of the oceans and the accuracy of climate models. By understanding how the ocean responds to changing surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and particularly the global role of rapid changes in high-latitude seas, we aim to help refine estimates of climate ....Sensitivity and Change in the Global Ocean Overturning. The dynamics of the global, deep overturning circulation in the oceans and the way this adjusts to increasing greenhouse forcing will be examined in order to improve our conceptual knowledge of the oceans and the accuracy of climate models. By understanding how the ocean responds to changing surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and particularly the global role of rapid changes in high-latitude seas, we aim to help refine estimates of climate response times and the warming expected for a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. These two important characteristics of the climate system underlie climate change policy decisions.Read moreRead less
From The Ocean Depths To Abrupt Climate Change - Missing Processes In The Global Overturning Circulation. The overturning circulation of the oceans is a driver of large and surprisingly abrupt climate shifts. We aim to understand the factors that control the rate of overturning, and whether it might soon slow down or cease owing to global warming. We also aim to resolve one of the biggest conundrums in oceanography by reconciling theoretical and measured rates of mixing in the deep ocean. Improv ....From The Ocean Depths To Abrupt Climate Change - Missing Processes In The Global Overturning Circulation. The overturning circulation of the oceans is a driver of large and surprisingly abrupt climate shifts. We aim to understand the factors that control the rate of overturning, and whether it might soon slow down or cease owing to global warming. We also aim to resolve one of the biggest conundrums in oceanography by reconciling theoretical and measured rates of mixing in the deep ocean. Improved knowledge of deep ocean dynamics, particularly in the Southern Ocean, will help us gauge the likely nature and pace of imminent climate changes in the Australian region, an essential step in assessing the impacts on water resources, ecosystems, agriculture, and energy demands. The research will add to a major new initiative in marine science at ANU.Read moreRead less
Mixing and dissipation in the ocean: Processes for the next generation of climate models. The circulation of the oceans is a crucial factor in governing the variability and long-term change in the earth's climate. A major weakness in current ocean and climate models is a lack of knowledge of energy flow within the ocean. This project will examine the nature and role of eddy interactions with the ocean boundaries, which is a critical question for future development of more accurate high-resolutio ....Mixing and dissipation in the ocean: Processes for the next generation of climate models. The circulation of the oceans is a crucial factor in governing the variability and long-term change in the earth's climate. A major weakness in current ocean and climate models is a lack of knowledge of energy flow within the ocean. This project will examine the nature and role of eddy interactions with the ocean boundaries, which is a critical question for future development of more accurate high-resolution ocean models and improved climate predictions.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water c ....Understanding leaf water isotope composition. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for paleoclimatologists and plant scientists to constrain global carbon cycles. Leaf water stable isotopes influence the isotope compositions of atmospheric oxygen, carbon dioxide and water vapour, and impart an evaporative signal on the isotope composition of plant organic material. These isotope signals have been used to constrain global carbon and water cycles and reconstruct past climates. This project aims to quantify variation in leaf water isotopes and develop mechanistic models for use by paleoclimatologists, plant scientists and to constrain global carbon cycles and develop accurate models of leaf water isotopes to reduce uncertainty in climate models.Read moreRead less
Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drilling in the Great Barrier Reef: unlocking the causes, rates and consequences of abrupt sea level and climate change. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and how it will respond to future global climate changes is of fundamental importance to the nation. The project will address this challenge by investigating the submerged fossil coral reefs in the GBR. This will lead to a better understanding of the natural rates, range and forcing mechanisms that control g ....Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drilling in the Great Barrier Reef: unlocking the causes, rates and consequences of abrupt sea level and climate change. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and how it will respond to future global climate changes is of fundamental importance to the nation. The project will address this challenge by investigating the submerged fossil coral reefs in the GBR. This will lead to a better understanding of the natural rates, range and forcing mechanisms that control global sea-level and climate variability (ie. paleo-ENSO), and geo-biological changes affecting the GBR over the last 20,000 years. This project will provide unique insights into the response of the GBR to past environmental stress and improve predictions about the vulnerability of GBR to future global climate changes.Read moreRead less