Robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risks under climate change. Climate change is a principal threat to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The loss of ecosystem services from loss of species and ecosystem change may have serious social and economic repercussions. Unreliable predictions of climate change impacts and inefficient adaptation decisions result in wasted public resources and unnecessary loss of natural assets. In addition to direct benefits of efficient ad ....Robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risks under climate change. Climate change is a principal threat to biodiversity and ecosystem health. The loss of ecosystem services from loss of species and ecosystem change may have serious social and economic repercussions. Unreliable predictions of climate change impacts and inefficient adaptation decisions result in wasted public resources and unnecessary loss of natural assets. In addition to direct benefits of efficient adaptation strategies for case-study ecosystems, techniques arising from this research will improve the way we respond to uncertain, but potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. Bringing state-of-the-art modelling and formal decision methods to climate change adaptation is a central aim of this research.Read moreRead less
Improving long term forecasts of tree growth in carbon farming projects. Australia is taking action to limit global warming, including use of "carbon farming" to capture CO2 using trees as natural carbon sinks. Limited knowledge on the growth rate of Mulga trees, a primary carbon sink, hampers our partner organisation’s ability to maximise carbon stores. The aim of this proposal is to use dendrochronology to inform novel predictive models for growth of mulga trees that will reduce uncertainty in ....Improving long term forecasts of tree growth in carbon farming projects. Australia is taking action to limit global warming, including use of "carbon farming" to capture CO2 using trees as natural carbon sinks. Limited knowledge on the growth rate of Mulga trees, a primary carbon sink, hampers our partner organisation’s ability to maximise carbon stores. The aim of this proposal is to use dendrochronology to inform novel predictive models for growth of mulga trees that will reduce uncertainty in carbon removal forecasts. The expected outcome will be significant and benefit our partner organisation and other agencies by providing improved forecasting of tree growth that will inform their decisions for investment in carbon farming and nature repair markets.Read moreRead less
Geostationary Observations for Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GORGE). Using satellite measurements it is possible to pinpoint emissions of greenhouse gases. This project (GORGE) will map these emissions throughout Asia and Australia, including the burgeoning emissions from megacities. It will allow real-time monitoring of the effects of climate change policies as well as the effects of climate change on forests and agriculture.
Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also e ....Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also ensures the government's continued commitment to managing the risks associated with extreme events as an urgent national priority. It represents a landmark opportunity for Australian leadership of an international collaboration between some of the world's leading climate scientists and climate data and modelling centres.Read moreRead less
Community Engagement for Localised Greenhouse Reduction: a local government demand-management model for business and household water, energy and waste reduction. New integrated community strategies are needed to deal with the imperative of reducing Australia's carbon footprint. With an explicit focus on enhancing community engagement for localised greenhouse reduction, this project will generate important analysis and policy prescriptions for demand reduction strategies. The development of endur ....Community Engagement for Localised Greenhouse Reduction: a local government demand-management model for business and household water, energy and waste reduction. New integrated community strategies are needed to deal with the imperative of reducing Australia's carbon footprint. With an explicit focus on enhancing community engagement for localised greenhouse reduction, this project will generate important analysis and policy prescriptions for demand reduction strategies. The development of enduring sustainable environment attitudinal and behavioural change is central to the National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development, which sees a clear role for governments, business and individuals in progressing ecologically sustainable development. The results will contribute to developing new place-based integrated eco-sustainability models for implementation by local/state governments.Read moreRead less
Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An ....Fires, black carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon balance of southern sclerophyll forests. Ecologically sustainable forest management requires an understanding of the role of fire in the carbon balance of native forests, and in Australia's overall carbon balance. Fires are crucial to both this carbon balance and to the ecology of the forests. This project will help forest managers make decisions about using prescribed fire to manage fuels while at the same time managing carbon. An aim of management is to identify fire regimes that will optimise the carbon outcome as well as provide protection to life and property. This project will help managers meet that aim by developing a quantitative understanding of how much stable, black carbon (charcoal) is produced and how it affects other soil processes.Read moreRead less
Invasive plant species and climate change in Australia: predicting the threat and projecting the future. The interaction between climate change and invasive pest species poses a significant threat to Australia's biodiversity. The need for research on both the independent impacts of climate change and invasive species, as well as their interaction, has been clearly identified by both national and state governments, and is identified as a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change ....Invasive plant species and climate change in Australia: predicting the threat and projecting the future. The interaction between climate change and invasive pest species poses a significant threat to Australia's biodiversity. The need for research on both the independent impacts of climate change and invasive species, as well as their interaction, has been clearly identified by both national and state governments, and is identified as a priority under the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (2004-2007). The proposed research will assess exotic plant species' responses to climate change, identify potential hotspots of invasion, and provide a risk assessment framework to enable prioritization of exotic plant management under future climate.Read moreRead less
Modelling policy interventions to protect Australia's food security in the face of environmental sustainability challenges . This project will use an innovative scenario modelling approach to quantify the potential impacts of population growth and emerging climate and environmental challenges on Australia’s future food security. In collaboration with an advisory committee it will specify and prioritise policy solutions in terms of their social and economic credentials.
Evaluating the weather in climate models - the relationship of dynamics and rainfall over Australia in current and future climates. Climate change will be experienced by society as a change in the day-to-day weather. This project will investigate the capabilities of modern climate models in simulating the weather with a particular focus on rainfall, and will provide guidance to the use of these models in projections of the future of Australia's climate.
Quantifying the flux of fugitive greenhouse gasses associated with coal seam gas and calibrating it to natural baseline and anthropogenic sources. Recent studies show that fugitive methane emissions associated with coal seam gas extraction pose a source of greenhouse gasses. In addition to the possible environmental impacts of methane emissions, quantifying the magnitude of emissions has potentially significant implications for future tax liabilities that could change the economics of the unconv ....Quantifying the flux of fugitive greenhouse gasses associated with coal seam gas and calibrating it to natural baseline and anthropogenic sources. Recent studies show that fugitive methane emissions associated with coal seam gas extraction pose a source of greenhouse gasses. In addition to the possible environmental impacts of methane emissions, quantifying the magnitude of emissions has potentially significant implications for future tax liabilities that could change the economics of the unconventional energy boom in Australia. The proposed research by an interdisciplinary team representing regulators, industry, and university researchers would establish a methodology for quantifying the flux of methane from gas fields. It would establish the range of natural baselines and determine the major sources of methane emissions using newly available highly sensitive instruments.Read moreRead less