Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100663
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Understanding the termination of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Australia's climate is extreme, with significant drought and flooding events driven by cycles of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study will improve our understanding of the termination of ENSO events and lead to better inter-seasonal climate forecasting, aiding the sectors reliant on accurate climate prediction.
Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our bio ....Australian climate extremes and predictability in a changing CO2 world: the unique role of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean-atmosphere. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next fifty years. Research into climate variability, extremes, and predictability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new initiative in extratropical climate analysis. This work will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-interannual climate prediction. Prominent examples include agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, bushfire control, air quality, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to per ....ARC Centres of Excellence for Climate System Science. Our capacity to assess the threat of climate change is undermined by an unacceptable level of uncertainty in the understanding and modelling of regional climates. The Centre will undertake world-class research targeting identified weaknesses in the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate system. We will engage and nurture graduate students and postdoctoral follows through a program of graduate training and mentoring to permanently transform our understanding of climate systems science particularly for the Australian region. The key outcome will be a dramatic enhancement in national capacity to understand and project the scale of future regional climate change.Read moreRead less
Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is ....Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. This project would lead to improved accuracy of Australian climate predictions, leading to benefits in many sectors. Increasing the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions across March-May, a crucial time for decision-making in Australian agriculture but a time when the forecasts exhibit little skill, would lead to large economic/societal benefits. Separating the factors influencing tropical cyclones is essential to determine whether global warming is changing Australian tropical cyclones, a crucial climate change question. Separating the influences of atmospheric circulation variations and other factors on climate changes and impacts should improve climate impact predictions, leading to enhanced economic benefits.
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Wave-Induced Upper-Ocean Mixing. The wave-induced mixing is of principal importance for air-sea interaction models since heat capacity of 2-3m of the ocean water is equal to the capacity of the entire atmosphere. This project will study and implement such mixing, including the newly described physical phenomenon of wave-induced turbulence, into a variety of models. As a result, wave models and global climate models will be coupled. It is believed that such coupling will enhance our ability to pr ....Wave-Induced Upper-Ocean Mixing. The wave-induced mixing is of principal importance for air-sea interaction models since heat capacity of 2-3m of the ocean water is equal to the capacity of the entire atmosphere. This project will study and implement such mixing, including the newly described physical phenomenon of wave-induced turbulence, into a variety of models. As a result, wave models and global climate models will be coupled. It is believed that such coupling will enhance our ability to predict the impact of global climate change. As part of the project, predictions of changes to the global wave climate will be developed. Such predictions are important to a nation such as Australia where significant population and economic assets are located close to the coast.Read moreRead less
Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
Beyond the linear dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This project will pioneer new climate models of the El Nino natural mode of climate variability, which will ultimately enable us to better predict seasonal weather fluctuation for Australia and improve our understanding of climate change in the tropical regions.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100004
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$440,185.00
Summary
Mixing and air-sea coupling in the Pacific: Toward better El Nino forecasts. The Tropical Pacific drives significant year-to-year variability in Australian rainfall and climate extremes. However, tropical climate predictions are severely limited due to systematic biases in numerical climate models. Using new techniques and leveraging international collaborations, this project aims to transform our ability to simulate tropical Pacific climate through a new understanding of key air-sea interaction ....Mixing and air-sea coupling in the Pacific: Toward better El Nino forecasts. The Tropical Pacific drives significant year-to-year variability in Australian rainfall and climate extremes. However, tropical climate predictions are severely limited due to systematic biases in numerical climate models. Using new techniques and leveraging international collaborations, this project aims to transform our ability to simulate tropical Pacific climate through a new understanding of key air-sea interaction and ocean mixing processes. Expected outcomes include a better representation of tropical climate in the Australian climate model and improved seasonal to interannual predictive capability. These improved predictions will give communities more time to prepare for extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and bushfires.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less