Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also gi ....The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: New observations of vertical mixing. The Southern Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) play profound roles in Australian and global climate. However, we know little about how they will be affected by global warming. New velocity observations will tell us how the vertical mixing that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation, and ACC strength, change with the seasons and from year to year. The observations will also give us a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric processes that drive these changes. This new information will allow climate models to be better constrained so they can more accurately predict changes to Australian and global climate.Read moreRead less
Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustai ....Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new study of the stability of the Southern Ocean's thermohaline circulation and its role in global climate. This work could have significant long-term benefits for those sectors of society sensitive to shifts in climate; including agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's env ....Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's environmental sustainability. We propose a major new study of the nature of coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks operating in the global climate system. This work will quantify how the ocean's carbon storage capacity might shift in the future, guiding policy-makers in setting future CO2 emissions targets.Read moreRead less
Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinn ....Modes of Pacific Ocean variability and their relationship to regional Southern Hemisphere climate. This project will provide a thorough examination of the role of the major Pacific Ocean modes in forcing variability in Australian climate. Enhancing our knowledge of the mechanisms driving natural modes of variability and how they affect Australian rainfall is fundamental for improving seasonal forecasting and long-term climate prediction. Results from this research can contribute to the underpinning sciences that inform on the risks associated with climate extremes and climate change. This is extremely beneficial to Australia, as it can have implications for adaptation strategies, assisting the socio-economic sectors dependant on climate forecasting, including agriculture, natural resources, bushfire control and water management.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less
Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo ....Unraveling ocean mixing and air-sea forcing along the Indo-Pacific exchange. This project aims to collect unprecedented observations and develop high resolution model simulations to examine changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) north of Australia. This project expects to develop new knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions along the path of the ITF from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which are the powerhouse that drives changes in winds and rainfall around Australia and the entire Indo-Pacific region. Expected outcomes include a 1000-fold increase in the observations of mixing in the Indonesian seas and new understanding of the ocean-atmosphere processes that control water property change along the ITF. This should lead to strong improvement in the skill of climate forecast models in the Australian region.Read moreRead less